-
Categories
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
-
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients
-
Food Additives
- Industrial Coatings
- Agrochemicals
- Dyes and Pigments
- Surfactant
- Flavors and Fragrances
- Chemical Reagents
- Catalyst and Auxiliary
- Natural Products
- Inorganic Chemistry
-
Organic Chemistry
-
Biochemical Engineering
- Analytical Chemistry
-
Cosmetic Ingredient
- Water Treatment Chemical
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
Promotion
ECHEMI Mall
Wholesale
Weekly Price
Exhibition
News
-
Trade Service
First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsInternationally, the Fed's first interest rate hike of the year is scheduled for March
.
As the dust settles on the March rate hike, copper prices, which had been weighed on rising expectations of interest rate hikes
, briefly rebounded slightly.
Copper prices fell under pressure due to the stranded vote on Trump's new health care bill and rising global risk aversion
.
The blockage of the new health care reform bill and the market's doubts about infrastructure and tax reform plans will affect the market's risk appetite, and it is expected that the actual progress of the US economic stimulus policy will affect
copper prices.
In China, the official manufacturing PMI in March was higher than expected, above the boom-bust line for eight consecutive months
.
The rest of the released economic data also performed well, and on the whole, China's economic development is still stable and improving
.
The governor of the People's Bank of China said that after years of quantitative easing, the current policy cycle is nearing the end
of the global monetary policy.
Monetary policy easing has gradually become prudent, and although this may weigh on speculative demand for copper and plague copper prices, we cannot deny that monetary policy no longer blindly pursues easing, indicating that the economic development is good
.
China's economy is developing well, which can play a great role in supporting copper prices
.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): According to cable network monitoring data, domestic copper prices fluctuated and fell in March, with a slight recovery in the middle of the year, and then continued to fall, and the overall trend was slightly weak
.
Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 47830 yuan / ton, and the copper price at the end of the month was 47320 yuan / ton, down 510 yuan, a decrease of 1.
07%.
Macro: The Fed's March interest rate meeting announced a rate hike, in line with market expectations
.
In general, the dollar index keeps moving higher
during the US rate hike cycle.
Its internal logic is that the Fed's interest rate hike means that the US economic situation is better, attracting funds back to the United States, the world demand for the dollar increases, the dollar appreciates relative to other currencies, and the dollar index strengthens
.
Compared with the development situation of the euro area, Japan and other economies, the US economy is obviously better, and the foundation for the strengthening of the US dollar is relatively solid
.
After the Fed's interest rate hike "boots landed", the dollar index briefly retreated, in addition, domestic economic data for January-February was better than expected, which once boosted the copper market, but the Fed's dovish speech immediately boosted the dollar index to recover, and the metal trend was suppressed
.
If the United States carries out large-scale infrastructure construction, then it needs a large number of copper, building materials and other raw materials, if the dollar index strengthens, the price of these raw materials will fall, which is what the US authorities want to see, therefore, the medium-term trend of the dollar has not changed, for the rise of copper prices has a certain inhibitory effect
.
Market: March is the peak season for domestic copper consumption, and the spot copper market has recovered, but there are indications that copper demand has not increased significantly, and it still fails to meet the standard of
"peak season".
Recently, the domestic copper market is very abundant, and downstream consumers are more active in purchasing when copper prices fall, but the price rebounds slightly and turns to the sidelines, which indicates that the bearish atmosphere in the market has increased
.
From the import data, China's imports of refined copper 233856 tons in February, down 28.
83% year-on-year, the decline further expanded, indicating that the source of domestic imported copper has shrunk
compared with the previous period.
Due to the concentrated start of downstream enterprises in March, import data may improve
.
In addition, the slump in the real estate sector weighed on copper demand
.
The real estate industry has entered a low-speed growth stage, and the demand for copper will continue to be sluggish, which is one of
the reasons why the copper demand season is not strong.
12345Next View full article
12345Next View full article
