Macro warmth and futures boost PVC market continues to rise

The PVC market rose vigorously last week and continued to rise
.
The active futures have driven the hot price rise in the spot market, and the current round of sharp rise is caused by the macro warmth and capital speculation
.
Recently, the stock market is active, the influx of funds in the real estate industry, so that PVC futures have risen sharply, the main contract has rushed up to 6650 yuan, at the high level of the year, the spot market has been boosted by this, rising across the board, taking Tianyuan Group as an example, 6350 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 6600 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 250 yuan, the price increase of mainstream enterprises is mostly concentrated in 150-250 yuan, the center of gravity is up, the low-end price of PVC is not much, corporate profits have been repaired, and the industry is optimistic
。 Futures rushed back down over the weekend, the rally in the spot market slowed down, and the continuous rise in PVC did not bring hot trading to the market, and procurement remained more cautious
.
Due to the current off-season of consumption and the impact of the rainy season in the south, downstream procurement is mostly rigid demand, and it has a wait-and-see attitude
towards high-priced PVC.
However, the continuous decline of inventory, the maintenance of some enterprises, and the multi-positive factors of futures have boosted the trend of PVC, with the risk of pullback, but it is not easy to fall
sharply.

In terms of spot, according to data monitoring, as of July 10, the mainstream quotation range of domestic PVC is around 6250-6600 yuan / ton
.
At present, the mainstream of PVC5 calcium carbide in East China is around 6500-6550 yuan / ton, the mainstream of PVC5 calcium carbide in South China is 6650-6750 yuan / ton, the mainstream of PVC5 calcium carbide in Hebei is 6370-6480 yuan / ton, the PVC5 calcium carbide range in Hangzhou is 6500-6550 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is around 6650-6750 yuan / ton, and the price continues
。

In terms of futures, the 10-day V2009 contract opened at 6575, the highest price was 6650, the lowest price was 6510, and the closing price was 6540, down 10, or 0.
15%.

The trading volume was 276,000 lots, an increase of 100,000 lots
.
The position volume was 187,000 lots, a decrease of 7,767 lots
.
PVC futures rose sharply, and the main contract rushed above 6650 yuan, at the highest level of the year
.

On the supply side, the operating rate of enterprises is more than 70%, the market supply pressure is not large, the supply of goods in some areas is tight, manufacturers are mostly pre-sale orders, sales are not pressured, and price confidence is enhanced
.
There are not many enterprises planning to maintain in the near future, there are Shanxi Yushe, Inner Mongolia Junzheng (new factory), Qinghai Yihua and other enterprises have maintenance plans, with the later import goods have arrived in Hong Kong, maintenance enterprises resume production, output increases, supply is becoming more and more stable, the supply side is still good
.

In terms of inventory, social inventory continued to decline, due to the low enthusiasm of downstream procurement in the off-season, the decline slowed down, the supply of goods in South China was tight, the decline was large, manufacturers reflected that the goods situation was good, East China did not change much, the total inventory fell to 268,000 tons, which is still lower than the same period last year
.

In terms of demand, the downstream of the consumption off-season does not stock up a lot of PVC that continues to rise, still based on just need to purchase, a small amount of replenishment, the rainy season in the south makes the demand decrease, some enterprises have reduced production and stop production, the demand has decreased to a certain extent, downstream pipe and profile products enterprises fell by about 10%, still at a high level, the high-end price of PVC enthusiasm is not high, but real estate demand is still there, there is still some support for PVC, but the strength is weakened
.

At present, PVC fundamentals have not changed much, macro warmth and futures boosted, PVC spot market is higher, corporate profits can be repaired, but demand off-season, downstream high-end PVC acceptance capacity is limited, chasing enthusiasm is not high, it is expected that in the short term PVC trend is still firm, there is a risk of pullback, but it is not easy to fall sharply
.