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Aluminum market review: During the holiday, LME aluminum fell back to $1976/mt and LME inventories fell by 5450 tonnes, mainly contributed
by warehouses in Klang, Malaysia.
At present, the overseas epidemic is raging again, and the economic lockdown measures may lead to a new decline in overseas demand, and risk appetite will continue to decline
.
Domestically, Back continued to weaken before the holiday, and the trend of social inventory gradually developed
towards accumulation.
The bull logic currently looks more at the profit of the position than the increase in absolute prices
.
Considering that the seasonal accumulation in February is more certain, the bulls actively retreated, so that the absolute price increase lacks a driving factor, observing Monday's accumulation, it is expected that the price volatility will be weak.
Last week's ingot inventory rose 2.
7 to 613,000 tonnes from last week, with the accumulation inflection point established
in the last week of December.
Domestic demand weakened month-on-month in December, and in addition to seasonality, various production restrictions in many places also led to additional lower demand, which will boost this part after the recent lifting of restrictions
.
Entering January, demand will further weaken due to seasonality, except for packaging and electronics demand still maintain stable orders, other sectors are mostly in the situation
of declining orders and gradually declining operating rates.
On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum operating capacity continued to rise, slightly exceeding previous expectations from a new increase in December (nearly 400,000 tons), while the import window was still open and supply maintained an upward trend
.
After the recent macro uncertainty landed, the overall atmosphere was optimistic again, which formed a certain support
for aluminum prices.
However, the fundamentals face the impact of the price short-term dominance, this week inventory inflection point finally established, considering that demand will further fall and the continuous growth of supply, the important factors supporting aluminum prices have changed, aluminum prices will be in a phased decline, short-term recommendations are short, the actual accumulation range and the expected difference will determine the range of prices
.
