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In the previous trading day, Shanghai copper main Cu2102 oscillated upward, the highest to 60680, the lowest was 59000, closed at 60310, closed up 1.
57%, and rebounded slightly after a sharp retracement in overnight, the lowest to 58900
.
Last week, the Democratic Party of the United States seized control of the Senate for the first time in six years, boosting expectations of increased fiscal stimulus, and high macro market expectations led to a strong upward movement in copper prices
.
For the later trend of copper prices, the long-term trading logic of the market is still dominated by macro, and the economic recovery is expected to be strong after the promotion and use of vaccines in the later period, and under the stimulus policy, the currency continues to be loose, and copper prices are still expected to rise
.
On the macro front, the current global low interest rate and ultra-loose monetary policy are still more likely to continue in the future, which is a very favorable factor for commodities, and as far as Fed monetary policy is concerned, there are no conditions for immediately changing the current ultra-loose monetary policy in the future, so the dollar is likely to remain weak
.
In terms of spot, although the spot market transaction last week was not too active, on Friday, holders lowered the premium, traders were cautious, downstream consumption was weak, and the overall transaction was still limited
.
On the fundamental side, the CSPT team finalized the copper concentrate processing fee floor price for the first quarter of 2021 at $53/mt and $5.
3/lb, down $5 and 0.
5 cents from the fourth quarter of 2020, and the future supply is still difficult to say loose
.
On the demand side, as the most important demand country, China is currently the most effective country in controlling the new crown epidemic
.
Therefore, it is expected that the probability of sustained recovery of domestic economic activity in 2021 is relatively high
.
In addition, the country's 14th Five-Year Plan attaches importance to the new energy sector, and will continue to support the demand for copper varieties
.
In terms of inventory, as of January 8, the global copper stocks corresponding to the three major copper futures LME, SHFE and COMEX copper stocks were about 102,400 tons, 82,300 tons and 79,600 tons, respectively, a total of 264,400 tons, and the total global copper stocks fell
again.
The spot market inventory of China's electrolytic copper mainstream area totaled 165,200 tons, including 111,200 tons of copper in Shanghai, 42,400 tons in Guangdong, and 11,600 tons in Jiangsu, down 09,100 tons
from the previous month.
Electrolytic copper stocks in the bonded zone were 458,500 tons, up 09,500 tons
from the previous month.
