Macro atmosphere continues to warm Shanghai copper continued its rebound last week

In terms of the market, approaching the change of month, the holders of goods dumping and supporting prices coexist, while some downstream companies are more waiting for the next month's quotation, and last week the price continued to rebound, downstream traders are afraid of heights to reappear, the sentiment of receiving goods once again appears to wait and see, superimposed high premium trading is more and more difficult, trading activity once declined, the overall transaction is few
.

In terms of demand, the recent downstream demand has signs of improvement, affected by the acceleration of terminal infrastructure project port investment and the peak of power grid investment, downstream head cable company orders maintained a rising trend, and real estate passed the most difficult stage after the implementation of various policies, the construction of wind and solar bases in the second half of the year is also expected to continue to make efforts, driving the growth of related wire and cable demand, as well as new energy vehicle sales exceeding expectations and the growth rate of the photovoltaic industry will support copper consumption in subdivisions, and demand is expected to continue to improve
.

On the supply side, South American copper supply continued to be disrupted, with another accident at Codelco's Chuquicamata copper mine, and copper production at Antofagasta due to lower profits, rising costs, lower grades and ongoing drought, although TC prices still showed an increase of $1.
72/mt to $73.
38/mt
.
In addition, the interference of the domestic supply side has restarted, and recently affected by the high temperature weather, Anhui power rationing has been tightened, the electric furnace has completely stopped production, and some blast furnace production lines have stopped production
.
At the same time, the epidemic restarted, Guixi City began to implement static management on the 10th, the city has the largest smelter in the country, with an annual output of more than 1 million tons of electrolytic copper, but the current railway transportation has not been significantly affected
.
In addition to smelters, copper processing plants in East China have also received power rationing notices, sub-regionally, power rationing management is currently mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places in East China, upstream and downstream industries are affected, the region's copper production capacity accounts for a larger proportion of the country than electrolytic copper
.

In terms of inventories, London copper stocks recovered slightly last week, accumulating an increase of 3,250 tons, or 2.
53%, to 131,850 tons
.
Shanghai copper inventories rose last week, with a cumulative increase of 7,043 tons to 41,811 tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.
26%.

In summary, the Fed's inflation data slowed down much more than market expectations, prompting the Fed's violent interest rate hike expectations in September to cool, helping to boost demand for risk assets, and the weakening of the US dollar and the warm macro atmosphere made most non-ferrous metals stronger
.
In addition, the European energy crisis continues to ferment, the disturbance of copper mines in South America continues, the domestic supply side is disrupted, Anhui Tongling, Jiangxi Yingtan and Zhejiang copper smelting are all affected by power cuts or epidemics, while low inventory continues, overall it is expected that Shanghai copper will continue to rebound trend, maintaining a large
probability of rebound.