Lilly diabetes and obesity "transformative" new drugs will become the best-selling drugs in history! Sales will exceed $25 billion

According to UBS, Eli Lilly's new drug for diabetes and obesity could become one of the best-selling drugs in history, with sales higher than Wall Street expected!

UBS rose 2.
5 percent in pre-market trading on Thursday after raising Eli Lilly shares from neutral to buy, and UBS analyst Colin Bristow said the company's newly approved type II diabetes drug, Mounjaro (Tirzepatide), could be "the best-selling drug of all time.
"
Analysts predict that if the therapy is also approved as a treatment for weight management in obese patients, sales will peak at $25 billion, up from $20 billion
previously forecasted.
Analysts told investors in a note on Thursday: "Tirzepatide has powerful efficacy in obesity and type 2 diabetes, and we think it could become the best-selling drug
in history.
" The Food and Drug Administration approved Tirzepatide as a type II diabetes treatment in May, and Eli Lilly's clinical data suggests the drug can help people lose up to 22.
5 percent
of their weight.
To date, Eli Lilly's share price is up 11% (Figure 1
).

Figure 1 Lilly shares (Source: yahoo finance)

Bristow's argument is straightforward: The 1.
6 million Americans who receive obesity treatment each year could make Tirzepatide $20 billion
in U.
S.
sales.
That's less than 2 percent
of the estimated obese population in the United States.
Actual drug sales are likely to be higher, in part because the drug is backed by strong clinical trial data and is a top performer, and management also said on the earnings call that market demand is strong
.
Winning only a small share of the U.
S.
market means huge sales
.
Not to mention opening up the market to the
world.

Bristow predicts that Tirzepatide could become one of the best-selling drugs in the world, surpassing AbbVie's $20.
7 billion annual sales blockbuster drug Humira (ABBV
).

Tirzepatide can make it obese or overweight

of adults lose up to 22.
5% of body weight

Tirzepatide is a weekly glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) receptor and glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist that integrates the effects of two types of intestinin into a new molecule (Figure 2).

。 In preclinical models, GIP has been shown to reduce food intake and increase energy expenditure, leading to weight loss, and when used in combination with GLP-1 receptor agonists, may have a greater impact on
markers of metabolic disorders such as body weight, glucose and lipids.
It has also been studied as a potential treatment for heart failure with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis and ejection fraction preservation
.
Research by Tirzepatide in the incidence/mortality of obstructive sleep apnea and obesity is also planned
.

Figure 2 Tirzepatide (Source: Lilly's official website)

Tirzepatide achieved significant weight loss effects when subjects received treatment for 72 weeks
.
Subjects lost up to 22.
5% (24 kg)
of body weight.
The study, which enrolled 2,539 participants, was the world's first Phase 3 registered trial
.
Tirzepatide achieved two common primary endpoints compared to placebo, namely a higher percentage change in body weight relative to baseline, and a larger percentage of participants achieved weight loss of at least 5%
compared to placebo.

Regarding the efficacy, subjects taking 5 mg of tirzepatide lost an average of 16.
0% (16 kg) compared with a weight loss of 2.
4% (2 kg) on placebo; Subjects taking 10 mg lost 21.
4% (22 kg); Take 15 mg to lose 22.
5% of weight (24 kg
).
Tirzepatide achieved impressive weight loss in SURMOUNT-1, which represents an important step
in helping patients and doctors collaborate on this complex disease.
The overall safety and tolerability profile of tirzepatide is similar
to other insulin-based incretin approved treatments for obesity.

Participants with prediabetes at the start of the study will continue to attend SURMOUNT-1 for an additional 104 weeks after the initial 72-week completion date to assess the effect on weight and the potential difference in progression to type 2 diabetes at age 3 compared to placebo, tecipacatide treatment for many years
.

Figure 3 Jeff Emmick, Vice President of Product Development for Eli Lilly Diabetes (Source: Linkedin)

Jeff Emmick, vice president of product development at Eli Lilly (Figure 3), said: "Tirzepatide is the first investigational drug to lose more than 20% of weight on average in Phase 3 studies, reinforcing our confidence in
its potential to help obese patients.
Obesity is a chronic disease that requires effective treatment options, and Eli Lilly is working tirelessly to support and modernize
the way obese people are treated.
We are proud to research and develop potential innovative therapies such as Tirzepatide, which has helped nearly two-thirds of the highest dose subjects lose at least 20%
of their weight in SURMOUNT-1.
" ”

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