Lancet model shows a sharp decline in the incidence of HIV in the UK

The number of new HIV infections among men with male sexuality (MSM) in the UK each year may drop significantly, from 2,770 in 2013 to 854 in 2018, indicating that it is possible to eliminate HIV transmission by 2030-this Shows the work of researchers from the University of Cambridge and the MRC Biostatistics Department of Public Health England (PHE), published in The Lancet

In order to manage the HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men in the UK, testing and early treatment strategies have been strengthened between 2011 and 2015, supplemented by pre-exposure prevention (PrEP) from 2015

The complexity of this assessment is that no HIV infection has been observed

Estimates of new HIV-infected adults with MSM (over 15 years of age) during the 10-year period between 2009 and 2018.

It is estimated that in the United Kingdom, the peak of the number of new HIV infections in men who have sex with men occurred between 2012 and 2013.

Through extrapolation, the researchers calculated that the probability of the UK reaching the UN's HIV eradication goal by 2030 is 40%, and further prevention work targets for different age groups (that is, male-to-male behavior at the age of 45) have been set to increase this.

Professor Daniela De Angelis, deputy director of the Cambridge University Biostatistics Research Committee and senior author, said:

"This is very good news, which shows that the preventive measures taken by the UK since 2011 have been effective

Valerie Delpech, Director of National AIDS Surveillance, Public Health England, said:

"We have made good progress in ending the spread of HIV in England by 2030.

He said: "If you are diagnosed with HIV, you can benefit from life-saving HIV treatment, which also means you cannot pass the virus to others

“During the COVID-19 pandemic, HIV and sexually transmitted infection testing can still be done through sexual health clinics

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Brizzi, F et al.