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June 9 Shanghai aluminum afternoon commentary

 Last Update: 2022-12-25
 Source: Internet
 Author: User

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Overnight, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2207 closed at 20950, up 180, LME aluminum closed at 2736, up 49.
5; macro, Biden vowed to give Fed Chairman Powell "space" to let him fight inflation, market risk aversion rebounded, and the dollar stabilized and rebounded; The automobile purchase tax will be halved, and the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) expects to increase by more than 2 million units; The World Bank cut its global growth forecast for this year to 2.
9 percent, warning of the risk of
"stagflation.
"

Shanghai aluminum

From a fundamental point of view, the production capacity of aluminum plants in Yunnan is gradually released, although demand recovers month-on-month, but due to the relatively high growth rate of supply, the speed of aluminum destocking has slowed down, short-term real estate favorable policies are frequent, epidemic repair and other stimulus policies are released centrally, downstream peak season demand recovery is expected to be high, consumption recovery still needs to be verified, the recovery of actual demand still takes time, downstream consumption weakness is still difficult to support aluminum to destocking significantly, it is expected that aluminum short-term maintenance is weak shock
.

On the supply side: Daily production is expected to pick up
month-on-month in June.
Consumption: Downstream demand is expected to be weak
.
In the medium and long term, domestic supply has grown significantly, the market is pessimistic about real estate demand, oversupply and demand are significant, and aluminum prices may continue to be under pressure
.

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