June 24 aluminum market brief commentary

Overnight, Lun aluminum fell under pressure at $1600 to close slightly negative, opening slightly higher at $
1902 today.
Shanghai aluminum fell back under pressure on the 5-day moving average to close small negative, Shanghai aluminum trading positions all declined, and the market tended to be cautious
before the holiday.
In the short term, the market is supported by the spot end to continue the high in the short term, but there are signs of weakening on the spot side, and pay close attention to the spot
side in the later stage.
The upper pressure of Shanghai aluminum is 14000, and the lower support is 13000
.

Inventories data released on Monday put it at 737,000 mt, down 17,000 mt
from the previous month.
Domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks have been firmly below 800,000 tons, and low stocks have supported aluminum prices
.
The State Council will often release the signal of RRR reduction, domestic terminal demand is good, spot remains high, and support inventories continue to decline
.
The average profit of national electrolytic aluminum enterprises is more than 1500 yuan / ton, which gives impetus to the subsequent production capacity and curbs the increase in aluminum prices
.

With the arrival of the off-season, supply is accelerating, consumption is showing signs of weakening, and bearish factors are accumulating
.
However, during the Dragon Boat Festival and the delivery of long orders, the spot market is still strong, the spot premium of aluminum ingots exceeds 200 yuan, and the warehouse receipt in the last period is only 93,000 tons, and Shanghai aluminum is short-term or maintained at a high level
in the low inventory state.