June 18 Shanghai aluminum brief comment

On the macro front, the Fed's interest rate hike expectations were ahead of schedule and the Fed's reserve dumping landing, causing market concerns
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From a fundamental point of view, the "ceiling" limit of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and the pressure of the dual carbon policy have highlighted the pressure on the supply side of aluminum; The dumping of storage has led to a tightening of downstream demand, but the demand for new energy has grown rapidly, and short-term disturbances in demand have improved in the long term
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On the inventory side, LME aluminum has accumulated slightly, Shanghai aluminum inventory has remained stable, and in the long run, aluminum fundamentals are well supported
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Recently, affected by the Fed's interest rate meeting, the US index once soared, and most of the nonferrous metals in Shanghai were lowered, coupled with the hawkish views of this meeting exceeded market expectations, and aluminum prices fell into a volatile pullback trend under the market sentiment; However, the current domestic aluminum ingot inventory has fallen below 900,000 tons, and short-term terminal demand is still performing well, but on the whole, the domestic off-season will eventually come, the fundamental support effect is limited, and the medium and long-term bearish thinking remains unchanged; Shanghai aluminum main force below continue to look at 18,000 support, the operation can be temporarily wait-and-see, it is expected that next week's spot aluminum shock decline
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