July 2019 sugar market supply and demand situation analysis: domestic sugar prices will be stable in the near future

China Business Intelligence Network News: domestic sugar prices flat slightly higher, international sugar prices have fallen steadily.
, the sugar market is in the peak consumption season, supply is tight, but a large number of imported sugar will fill the gap, it is expected that domestic sugar prices in the near future to run smoothly mainly.
, adverse weather affects sugar production, but there are still a large number of stocks, international sugar prices are expected to be mainly small fluctuations in the near future.
(a) domestic sugar prices rose slightly flat.
, the average domestic sugar price was 5,234 yuan per ton, up 63 yuan, or 1.2 percent, month-on-month, and 99 yuan, or 1.9 percent, year-on-year.
the main reason for the flat increase in domestic sugar prices is that import quotas were announced late, imported sugar could not be replenished in time, sugar processing plant starts were blocked, and sales were faster in the early period, with relatively little inventory.
(ii) International sugar prices have fallen steadily.
July, the average international sugar price (ICE 11 raw sugar futures, the same as 11) was 12.13 cents per pound, down 0.31 cents, or 2.5 percent, from a year earlier, and 0.93 cents, or 8.3 percent, from a year earlier.
india's plans to increase export subsidies and boost sugar exports have raised concerns in international markets.
(iii) the spread between domestic and foreign exchange rates widened.
July, Brazil's sugar-to-shore after-tax price of 15% of the quota was 3,298 yuan per ton, down 115 yuan, or 3.4%, from the previous month, 1,936 yuan lower than the domestic sugar price and 178 yuan more than the previous month.
The after-tax price of Brazilian sugar, which is 50% tariff outside the import quota, was 4,196 yuan per ton, down 150 yuan, or 3.5%, from the previous month, 1038 yuan lower than the domestic sugar price and 213 yuan more than the previous month.
brazilian sugar after-tax price of 5,093 yuan per ton, 141 yuan lower than the domestic sugar price, which imposes a 35% safeguard tariff outside the tariff quota.
(iv) China's sugar imports fell sharply in January-June.
June, China imported 139.8 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 63.5% month-on-month and 49.7% year-on-year.
January-June, China imported 1.0694 million tons of sugar, a decrease of 22.5% YoY, and imports of US$374 million, a decrease of 30.6% YoY.
mainly from Brazil (38.9 per cent of total imports), Cuba (37.0 per cent) and Thailand (13.9 per cent).
(V) is expected to decline in global sugar production in the 2019/20 squeeze season.
affected by adverse weather conditions, several sugar-producing countries have expressed concern about sugar production during the 2019/20 season.
early July, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) forecast India's sugar production for the 2019/20 season at 28.2 million tonnes, down 14.3 per cent from 32.95 million tonnes in the 18/19 season.
Thai Sugar Association said sugar production and quality in the 2019/20 season could be slightly worse than in the last season due to recent irregular rainfall.
European Commission released a report at the end of July showing that eu beet cultivation is expected to be 1.541 million hectares in the 2019/20 season, down 5.1% year-on-year.
(6) it is expected that domestic sugar prices will run smoothly, and international sugar prices will continue to operate mainly with small fluctuations in the near future.
Domestic, the sugar market is in the peak consumption season, high demand, is expected to be in place with imported sugar, processing plants full capacity to start, a large number of new sugar market, to fill the supply gap, domestic sugar prices will be stable operation in the near future.
Internationally, in the middle of this month, the European Union, India, Thailand and other major sugar-producing countries adverse weather, 2019/20 production is expected to decline significantly, especially in India sugar season production is expected to decline by more than 4 million tons.
Brazil is more inclined to produce ethanol, and sugar production will remain low.
the international sugar supply is expected to decrease, supply and demand gap, in the long run, global sugar prices will rise.
india, Thailand still have a large inventory to digest, is expected to continue to operate in the near future with small fluctuations.