July 18 copper market morning review

Although the economic data released last week showed that the domestic GDP growth rate in the second quarter was only 0.
4%, the economic data for June showed that the domestic economy continued to recover, and the June social finance data and export data released during the week also exceeded expectations; However, real estate investment remains weak and will continue to weigh on copper consumption
.
Copper stocks in the previous period increased by 1,979 tons to 71,000 tons, and it is expected that under the influence of the resumption of production in Shandong refinery and the recovery of production after the end of centralized maintenance of domestic refineries, follow-up or continuation of accumulation
.

Russia closed Nord Stream 1 on the 11th, the European energy crisis intensified, coupled with high inflation in Europe, the outlook for European economic growth is worrying; US inflation data in June continued to reach new highs, exceeding market expectations, and the Fed may adopt a more aggressive rate hike path, and the market has expected
a 100bp rate hike in July.

Under high inflation, global central banks aggressively raise interest rates, market fears of global recession continue to ferment, and slowing economic growth in Europe and the United States will also weaken overseas consumption
.
Moreover, copper supply pressure will gradually appear in the second half of the year, and it is expected that subsequent copper prices will still be dominated by a downward trend
.