Jiangsu: pig prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival

Introduction: recent pig stocks According to the survey of BPS County, by the end of October, the total number of pigs on hand in the province was 13.4299 million, down 11.60% from 15.1919 million in the same period last year (actually at the end of November last year, the same below), down 1.38% from 13.6175 million in the previous period (at the end of August this year, the same below) Among them, the number of male and female pigs on hand was 1.0977 million, down 4.56% on the same period of last year, down 5.63% on the same period of last year, 1.1632 million; the number of piglets on hand was 3.719 million, down 11.87% on the same period of last year, down 7.49% on the same period of last year, 4.015 million; the number of finishing pigs on hand was 8.6303 million, down 12.31% on the same period of last year, up 2.10% on the same period of last year, 8.4528 million The proportion of male and female pigs in total stock is 8.17% According to the analysis, the reasons for the large drop in the current period of pig stock compared with the same period of last year are as follows: first, the delayed impact of the early epidemic, the pig farmers in the severely affected areas suffered heavy losses, on the one hand, the shadow of their fear has not been eliminated, on the other hand, there is a lack of funds to supplement the stock EjD 2 is that now the masses do not have the concept of task to raise pigs, and they will not raise pigs if they can raise them The grass-roots government will no longer include pig production in the cadre assessment indicators EjD 3 is due to the poor comparative benefit and high risk of pig breeding, and the number of farmers who choose to go out to work is much more than in the previous years, which leads to the continuous increase of pig blank rate EjD 4 is that the current survey is at the end of October, and last year was at the end of November The data is not comparable EjD favorable factors: (1) the proportion of sows in total stock is normal, the stock level is still high, and the potential of pig production is sufficient; (2) although the feed price is still higher than the same period of last year, the trend of continuous decline has appeared since the end of August, and the price of corn has dropped from 1.32 yuan per kilogram at the end of August to 1.12 yuan at the beginning of November, a decrease of 15%, The comprehensive average price of corn, barley, bran and soybean cake decreased by 6% The downward fluctuation of feed price is conducive to reducing the production cost of pigs and improving the feeding efficiency; (3) according to the analysis of the stock structure of fattening pigs, the total supply of pigs that can be listed in the first quarter of next year will be less than that of the same period of last year, and the centralized consumption of new year's day and Spring Festival and the demand for pigs in the meat processing industry before the Spring Festival are large Therefore, there is little space for the current pig price to fall before the Spring Festival, while the current pig food The price comparison is basically reasonable, and farmers still have some benefits in pig raising EjD disadvantage (1) Although the per unit yield of autumn grain in our province has increased this year, due to the decrease of planting area, the total yield has decreased by 1.5 billion kg, which is rare in recent years; (2) farmers' feeding and investment has changed from pig breeding to cattle, sheep, rabbits and other herbivores, fish, shrimp and other aquatic products; (3) the number of migrant workers in rural labor force has increased compared with previous years EjD may cause the rise of pig price (1) The number of pigs suitable for listing in the first quarter of next year is 6.67% lower than that in the same period of last year; (2) there is a long time between New Year's day and Spring Festival, which may lead to two consumption peaks In addition, before the Spring Festival, there is a peak season for processing various meat products, and the demand for pork is large; (3) the general inventory of processing enterprises is insufficient this year, and the National Reserve has not arranged frozen meat storage, so the market has a relatively strong ability to resist risks Poor; (4) the pig stocks in the surrounding major producing provinces have declined, and it is more difficult to adjust the source of goods than in previous years EjD may cause the pig price to fall (1) In winter, the consumption of beef, sheep and poultry meat is relatively large, especially before the Spring Festival, aquatic products have also entered the peak season of listing, with sufficient supply and low price; (2) the incidents of clenbuterol poisoning and pig epidemic constantly reported by the media have a great impact on people's consumption psychology, which has restrained the demand The price of cotton and other major agricultural products fell, resulting in the decline of farmers' income and further weakening of their consumption ability; (3) the meat substitutes of other related non-staple foods are abundant in resources, low in price, and the residents have a large choice; (4) the market competition in the sales area is fierce, and businesses have adopted price reduction strategies in order to enter the market of Shanghai and other large and medium-sized cities, which has suppressed the space for pig price recovery in the production area EjD, after a sharp decline in pig production in the early stage, has slowed down at a low level in the near future Compared with the same period last year and the previous period, the purchase and sale price of pig has dropped, but the decline is not large After the new grain was put on the market, the price of grain and feed decreased, but most varieties were still higher than that of the same period last year, and the price ratio of pig to grain was basically reasonable It is expected that in the first quarter of next year, especially before the Spring Festival, the supply of marketable pigs will be less than that of the same period of last year, but the supply and demand can still maintain a basic balance compared with the consumption demand with a large decline If there is no disastrous weather, the price of pigs is expected to remain basically stable, but the possibility of a sharp rise is not great After the Spring Festival, the price of pigs may fall back slightly after the off-season of consumption EjD expects that in the first quarter of next year, 5.6 million pigs will be sold in our province, down 6.67% from 6 million in the same period of this year State owned food enterprises purchased 1.2 million, up 4% year on year; sold 900000, transferred 300000, basically the same as the same period this year EjD