Jiangsu pig price is expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival

Introduction: according to the survey of BPS County, by the end of October, the total number of pigs in the province was 13.4299 million, down 11.60% compared with the same period of last year (actually the end of November last year, the same below), and 1.38% compared with the previous period (the end of August this year, the same below) Among them, the number of male and female pigs on hand was 1097700, down 4.56% on the same period of last year, down 5.63% on the same period of last year, 1163200; the number of piglets on hand was 3701900, down 11.87% on the same period of last year, down 7.49% on the same period of last year, down 7.49% on the same period of last year, and the number of finishing pigs on hand was 8630300, down 12.31% on the same period of last year, up 2.10% on the same period of last year, up 8.4528 million The proportion of male and female pigs in total stock is 8.17% According to the analysis, the reasons for the large drop in the current period of pig stock compared with the same period last year are as follows: first, the delayed impact of the early epidemic, the heavy losses of pig farmers in the severely affected areas, on the one hand, the shadow of their fear has not been eliminated, on the other hand, there is a lack of funds to supplement the stock Second, now that the masses have no concept of task to raise pigs, they can raise them without raising them The grass-roots government will no longer include pig production in the cadre assessment indicators Third, due to the poor comparative benefit and high risk of pig breeding, there are many more farmers who choose to work outside, which leads to the continuous increase of pig blank rate Fourth, the current survey is at the end of October, while last year's survey was at the end of November The data has certain incompatibility Favorable factors: (1) the proportion of sows in the total stock is normal, the stock level is still high, and the potential of pig production is sufficient; (2) although the feed price is still higher than the same period of last year, the trend of continuous decline has appeared since the end of August, and the price of corn has dropped from 1.32 yuan per kilogram at the end of August to 1.12 yuan at the beginning of November, a decrease of 15%, The comprehensive average price of corn, barley, bran and soybean cake decreased by 6% The downward fluctuation of feed price is conducive to reducing the production cost of pigs and improving the feeding efficiency; (3) according to the analysis of the stock structure of fattening pigs, the total supply of pigs that can be listed in the first quarter of next year will be less than that of the same period of last year, and the centralized consumption of new year's day and Spring Festival and the demand for pigs in the meat processing industry before the Spring Festival are large Therefore, there is little space for the current pig price to fall before the Spring Festival, while the current pig food The price comparison is basically reasonable, and farmers still have some benefits in pig raising Adverse factors: (1) although the per unit yield of autumn grain in our province increased this year, the total yield decreased by 1.5 billion kg due to the decrease of planting area, which is rare in recent years; (2) farmers' feeding and investment has changed from pig breeding to herbivores such as cattle, sheep, rabbits and aquatic products such as fish and shrimp; (3) the number of migrant workers in rural areas has increased compared with previous years The factors that may cause the rise of pig price are: (1) the number of pigs suitable for listing in the first quarter of next year is 6.67% lower than that in the same period of last year; (2) the new year's day and the Spring Festival are separated by a long time, which may form two consumption peaks In addition, before the Spring Festival is the peak season for processing various meat products, the demand for pork is large; (3) the general stock of processing enterprises is insufficient this year, and the national reserve is not secure The ability of market anti risk is poor when the frozen meat is discharged into the warehouse; (4) the pig stock in the surrounding major producing provinces has declined, and the difficulty of source adjustment is greater than that in previous years The factors that may cause the decline of pig price are: (1) the consumption of beef, sheep and poultry meat is large in winter, especially before the Spring Festival, aquatic products have also entered into the peak season of market, with sufficient supply and low price; (2) the events of clenbuterol poisoning and pig epidemic constantly reported by the media have a great impact on people's consumption psychology and restrain the demand The price of cotton and other major agricultural products fell, resulting in the decline of farmers' income and further weakening of their consumption ability; (3) the meat substitutes of other related non-staple foods are abundant in resources, low in price, and the residents have a large choice; (4) the market competition in the sales area is fierce, and businesses have adopted price reduction strategies in order to enter the market of Shanghai and other large and medium-sized cities, which has suppressed the space for pig price recovery in the production area At present, the pig production in Jiangsu Province, after a sharp decline in the early stage, has slowed down in the near future The purchase and sale prices of pigs have fallen from the same period last year and the previous period, but the decline is not large After the new grain was put on the market, the price of grain and feed decreased, but most varieties were still higher than that of the same period last year, and the price ratio of pig to grain was basically reasonable It is expected that in the first quarter of next year, especially before the Spring Festival, the supply of marketable pigs will be less than that of the same period of last year, but the supply and demand can still maintain a basic balance compared with the consumption demand with a large decline If there is no disastrous weather, the price of pigs is expected to remain basically stable, but the possibility of a sharp rise is not great After the Spring Festival, the price of pigs may fall back slightly after the off-season of consumption It is expected that 5.6 million pigs will be sold in the first quarter of next year, down 6.67% from 6 million in the same period of this year State owned food enterprises purchased 1.2 million, up 4% year on year; sold 900000, transferred 300000, basically the same as the same period this year.