January monthly report of American soybean meal Association

Introduction: world soybean production and demand continue to rise The American soybean meal Association monthly report in January: the United States Department of agriculture (USDA) said that in 2001-02, the world's oil seed production will reach 323 million tons According to USDA's last forecast, the U.S oil seed production forecast remains unchanged, just under 91 million tons Oil seed production in other countries increased by 0.2 percentage points to 2 32 million tons The increase in soybean and rapeseed production was offset by the decrease in cottonseed and sunflower seed production Argentina's soybean production reached a record 28.75 million tons, up from 27.2 million tons last year Canada's soybean production decreased by about 500000 tons, offsetting the increase in Argentina's production USDA raised oil seed trade data due to rising soybean meal consumption in the EU, Japan and Indonesia The amount of soybean meal used in Japan has increased because the addition of meat and bone meal is prohibited in animal feed Taiwan's soybean meal imports decreased by 100000 tons, mainly for more meat imports after China's accession to the WTO Despite increased market competition, U.S exports of soybeans and soy products have increased Exports are expected to be close to last quarter's 27.2 million tons The main reason for the increase in exports is the increased consumption of soybean meal in the EU Compared with soybean meal, EU countries prefer soybeans, reflecting the high profit of crushing The increase in soybean meal consumption in the EU reflects the continued shift of EU countries from consumption of meat and bone meal to soybean meal, as well as the shortage of other oilseed meal supplies and relatively high grain prices As for the current ending inventory of the United States in 2001 / 02, it is estimated that it is just below 9 million tons The reputation of Brazil's non genetically modified soybeans is under threat The American soybean meal Association reported in January: if Brazil does not strictly prohibit the illegal cultivation of genetically modified soybeans, it will be more and more difficult to distinguish between genetically modified and non genetically modified foods in Brazil in the future Brazil's reputation as the world's leading supplier of natural or non GMO soybeans is being undermined by the fact that seeds smuggled from the south are being transported to the vast central soybean growing areas Although it is forbidden to grow genetically modified soybeans in Brazil at present, 90% of the soybeans in neighboring Argentina are genetically modified soybeans, which provides convenient supply channels for growers who want to grow genetically modified soybeans Until recently, it was also believed that the illegal import of genetically modified seeds was limited to the southern border area However, recent reports show that genetically modified crops have emerged in the traditional Midwest and the northernmost Bahia and Maranhao states If this situation is confirmed, the reputation of Brazil's non GM soybeans will be damaged, especially those produced in the central and northern regions, because the soybeans produced in the above regions have been trusted by European and Japanese purchasers as non GM soybeans According to Joao Henrique Hummel, President of the Brazilian soybean association, there is already evidence that GM soybeans are being grown outside the south Joao Henrique Hummel said the sales of seeds did not match the planting area In 2001, 670000 tons of seeds were sold in 14 million hectares of the country This year, the planting area increased by 1.5 million hectares, and the demand for seeds only increased by 10000 tons Central Brazil accounts for 40% of the country's soybean crop, where 300000 hectares are expected to be planted with genetically modified soybeans Genetically modified soybeans account for 20% of the area planted in the southern soybean growing area, while 50% of the soybean varieties are planted in Rio Grande do Sul Danish fish meal suppliers are seeking to lift the EU ban on adding fish meal to ruminant feed as soon as possible Despite the recognition that fish meal itself is safe, the EU still includes fish meal in the banned feed animal protein, mainly to eliminate the risk of BSE infection in dairy products and beef cattle in EU countries The EU fish meal industry says it has published a paper on current and available methods for the detection of terrestrial animal protein in fish meal Up to now, the only official inspection instrument of EU is feed microscope, which is not suitable for daily inspection because there are too many samples to be inspected The results of other existing methods are not good, mainly when the terrestrial animal protein is autoclaved at 133 ℃ and 3 bar for 20 minutes The report published on the Internet of fishmeal information explains five test methods Among them, the Danish ELISA analysis test conducted by the Danish National serum Research Institute, known as "immunolex", has been proved to be the most promising test method These five tests include microscope analysis, Danish ELISA analysis, British ELISA analysis, near infra red, polymercase chain reflection diagnosis The accuracy of ELISA method in Denmark is 0.001% It may take another 6 months to improve the experimental method and another 12 months to make it effective China's soybean trade is back to normal U.S and Chinese officials seem to have reached a working agreement on how China will implement its new regulations on genetically modified products Recently, the sharp increase in soybean sales to China shows that the world's largest soybean importer has resumed normal trade Last summer, regulations on the management of genetically modified products were introduced, which required the safety of genetically modified products and the marking of genetically modified products, as well as stricter inspection system As a result, the export trade of the United States is actually in a state of suspension, which greatly delays the unloading time of goods from China's port Latin American countries, and makes exporters worry about the new contracts signed Some traders and government officials of soybean exporting countries suspect that this is a non-tariff barrier, intended to protect China's own soybean growers and crushers from competition with imported soybean oil after China's accession to the WTO In fact, it seems that this view is not quite right, but it is not entirely wrong, because blocking soybean imports is not good for China China's own soybean and other oilseed production, although growing slowly, is far from meeting the needs of the fast-growing food and feed industry In addition, large crushing and processing plants, which are at the forefront of China's feed and meat development, need regular and large-scale supply, and only imports can ensure the supply China's soybean imports for 2001 / 02 are currently forecast at 14 million tons, up from 13.2 million tons last year and 10.1 million tons the year before In 1997, China imported only 3 million tons of soybeans China's consumption of protein meal increased from 22.6 million tons in 1997 / 98 to 31.3 million tons this season Brazil's soybean production is expected to hit another record Brazil's soybean production has reached a record this quarter and is expected to hit another record in 2002 / 03 It is estimated that the total output of soybean will exceed 40 million tons for the first time, which is likely to reach 42 million tons 8 percentage points higher than in 2001 When the field crushing industry is expected to crush 23 million tons of soybeans, an increase of 1 million tons compared with 2001 The increase in soybean production will bring about a significant increase in exports, which are expected to total 17 million tons Compared with the export volume of 15.5 million tons in 2001 / 02, the export volume has increased significantly Brazil's domestic soybean meal production in 2002 / 03 is expected to reach 18 million tons, an increase of 700000 tons over the previous year, of which half will be used for export, accounting for 10.4 million tons Despite record domestic crushing, Brazil is expected to import another 100000 tons of soybean meal to meet local demand in the coming year Brazil is the second largest soybean producer in the world, accounting for one fifth of the world's soybean production Brazil's soybean exports earn 5 million euros a year in foreign exchange (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: