-
Categories
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
-
Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients
-
Food Additives
- Industrial Coatings
- Agrochemicals
- Dyes and Pigments
- Surfactant
- Flavors and Fragrances
- Chemical Reagents
- Catalyst and Auxiliary
- Natural Products
- Inorganic Chemistry
-
Organic Chemistry
-
Biochemical Engineering
- Analytical Chemistry
-
Cosmetic Ingredient
- Water Treatment Chemical
-
Pharmaceutical Intermediates
Promotion
ECHEMI Mall
Wholesale
Weekly Price
Exhibition
News
-
Trade Service
First, macroeconomics
First, macroeconomicsDomestic aspects:
1.
Affected by factors such as the approaching Spring Festival holiday, China's official manufacturing PMI in January only recorded 51.
3, down 0.
3 percentage points from 51.
6 in the previous month, but it was still above the boom and bust line, although it fluctuated slightly but was still stable
.
2.
China's Caixin manufacturing PMI in January was 51.
5, unchanged
from the previous month.
The total number of new orders has maintained growth for 19 consecutive months, but the growth rate has slowed down from the previous month; Growth in input and selling prices slowed, and inflationary pressures abated
.
International aspects:
1.
The change in ADP employment in the United States recorded 234,000 in January, down 16,000 from 250,000 in the previous month, but significantly higher than the expected 185,000, and the small non-farm payrolls were much higher than expected, which caused the Fed to raise interest rates in March
.
2.
The preliminary non-farm productivity value in the United States in the fourth quarter of 2017 unexpectedly fell to -0.
1%, down 3.
1 percentage points from 3.
00% in the previous quarter, highlighting the slow
efficiency growth in the current round of economic expansion.
2.
Analysis of this month's market trend
(i) Market analysis
(i) Market analysis
Analysis of key products of cable raw materials (copper): According to cable network monitoring data, although copper prices performed well in December last year, they encountered "Waterloo" in January this year, and prices fluctuated lower
.
Represented by the Yangtze River nonferrous spot market, the copper price at the beginning of the month was 54700 yuan / ton, and the copper price at the end of the month was 52690 yuan / ton, down 2010 yuan, a decrease of 3.
67%.
Macro: Abroad, recently, European and American PMI data hit a multi-year high, reflecting strong economic momentum, while US non-farm wages grew well, coupled with rising crude oil prices, global reinflation is expected to continue
.
In addition, Trump's 2018 State of the Union address, when it comes to infrastructure construction, focused on simplifying the approval process for infrastructure, which may mean that U.
S.
copper demand will grow earlier than market expectations, and new infrastructure investment of at least $1.
5 trillion is also higher than previous market expectations
.
Domestically, there have been important marginal changes in domestic real estate sales policies, and the growth rate of real estate investment is expected to be revised upward throughout the year
.
At the same time, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced that 5.
8 million shantytowns will be renovated in 2018, exceeding market expectations and similar to 2017, and once again emphasizing support for rigid and improved demand
.
On the whole, the recent global macro economy continues to be optimistic, and the weak demand caused by the consumption off-season is the fundamental logic
of the price decline.
Market: The weak correction in copper prices this month has not led to a recovery in market demand
.
As far as the overall situation within the month is concerned, the market's acceptance of copper prices above 53,000 is generally not high, and only when copper prices fall below 53,000 will downstream demand show a more obvious improvement
.
On the one hand, the high copper price limits the enthusiasm of the downstream stocking, and on the other hand, the falling copper price also makes the market worried about the performance of copper prices in the next year, so the market demand performance in January is not ideal, and there is no obvious stocking tide
as in previous years.
At present, there are only a few days before the Spring Festival, unless copper prices get out of the sharp decline, otherwise downstream demand may not improve significantly during the year
.
(ii) Future-market forecasts
(ii) Future-market forecastsThe recent focus of the market is on the sharp increase in LME copper stocks, and according to past experience, copper prices are likely to rebound
as the increase in inventories ends.
In terms of the market, there is no significant improvement in fundamentals, China's refined copper supply is still relatively abundant, while consumer demand continues to fall, in the macro environment, China's economy is resilient, optimistic expectations are still there, while the pressure on the US dollar index and the strength of crude oil prices, it is expected that there will still be some support
for copper prices in the later period.
It is expected that the driving logic in February lies in the macro and industrial game, copper prices are likely to fluctuate, and the market triggers waiting for the downstream recovery
after the holiday.
12345Next View full article
12345Next View full article
