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Shanghai aluminum continued to weaken overnight and has fallen back to the shock platform
in the third quarter of last year.
The social inventory of aluminum ingots accumulated to 670,000 tons, and the characteristics of the aluminum market in the first quarter of the off-season appeared
.
The spot market is no longer supported, near-delivery spot turns to discount, and the structure of Shanghai aluminum monthly difference reverses to contango, which is conducive to hedging entry
.
The closure of the primary aluminum import window will ease some supply pressure, and it is important to pay attention to whether the accumulation of stocks can have an expected difference so that Shanghai aluminum can find support, and short orders continue to be held
.
On the macro front, new social finance fell sharply in December, less than expected; The Biden administration plans to boost the $1.
3 trillion stimulus package, the US economic recovery is expected to strengthen, US bond yields are rising, and the dollar is boosted
.
In terms of the market, with the consumption off-season Larlin, aluminum ingot social inventory has recently continued to rise, while electrolytic aluminum production capacity is still being released, supply is growing steadily, while demand performance is weak, and spot aluminum prices are expected to fall
.
In terms of fundamentals, the domestic epidemic has rebounded, and logistics restrictions have been strengthened in some areas, or downstream construction may be affected; In winter, consumption slowed down in the north, some rod factories stopped production, and the amount of ingots increased; The output of electrolytic aluminum continued to expand, and the consumption slowed down significantly; On the 11th, SMM aluminum ingot inventory reported 676,000 tons, an increase of 1.
2 compared with last Thursday, and the recent market arrival increased significantly; the recent spot transaction was weak, and the transaction of the month was discounted
.
