It is expected that the price of domestic oil and edible oil will fall in the second quarter

Introduction: this year's Oilseeds in China this year, the planting area of oilseeds (excluding soybeans) in China will continue to expand qxf Because the overall supply of Oilseeds in China in 2002 was in short supply, the prices generally increased, and the market sales were smooth, which stimulated the enthusiasm of farmers to plant oilseeds This year's planting area will continue to expand According to the survey on intention of planting area of crops by relevant departments, this year's intention of planting area of oil plants in China increased by about 4% over the previous year Among them, the area of rapeseed increased by about 5%, and the main production areas of Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu, Sichuan and Henan increased greatly Qxf agricultural department's investigation on March 20 showed that the situation of rapeseed seedlings returning to green was better than that before winter The proportion of the first, second and third kinds of seedlings was 34:44.5:21.5, among which the first kind of seedlings decreased by 2.2 percentage points year on year, increased by 0.5 percentage points compared with that before winter; the second kind of seedlings increased by 0.8 percentage points year on year, increased by 0.9 percentage points compared with that before winter; the third kind of seedlings increased by 1.4 percentage points year on year, 1.4 percentage points less than before winter The seedlings in some areas of Jianghuai and Jiangnan are in poor condition, while the growth in most other areas is normal According to the per unit yield in the previous years, and considering the increase of high-quality varieties, if the climate is normal in the later period, the rapeseed output in China is expected to reach the highest record in history this year, with an initial estimate of about 12 million tons Qxf in addition, the intention survey shows that the planting area of soybean, the main raw material for oil extraction, will increase by about 5.5%, that of Heilongjiang Province, the main production area, will increase by about 10%, and that of cottonseed will increase by about 13% The import of oil and edible oil increased in the first two months of qxf It is estimated that the import in the first three quarters is still unlikely to impact the domestic market According to the statistics of the customs, in the first two months of this year, China has imported 2.02 million tons of soybeans, up 91% year-on-year, mainly due to the domestic demand, especially the strong demand for imported soybeans from large coastal oil pressing plants; imported rapeseed 197 Tons, a significant reduction (import of 162000 tons in the same period last year), mainly due to the high price of rapeseed in the international market, the poor profit of import processing, and the unwillingness of processing enterprises to import The export of peanut, a traditional foreign exchange earning product, was 138000 tons, an increase of 6.8%; the export of sunflower seed, a net export product, was 10100 tons, an increase of 80%; the export of sesame was 18000 tons, an increase of 78% In the first two months of this year, China has imported 472000 tons of edible vegetable oil, an increase of 1.22 times over the same period last year Among them, 344000 tons of palm oil was imported, an increase of 91%, mainly due to the large import tariff quota, relatively low price and demand of food processing enterprises; 120000 tons of soybean oil was imported, still showing a significant growth trend, mainly due to the decline of domestic vegetable oil supply; 1412 tons of vegetable oil was imported, a decrease of 46.3% The cumulative export of soybean meal was 86000 tons, down 51.5%; the export of rapeseed meal was 36500 tons, up 11.3% In addition, the U.S Department of agriculture and Germany's oil world predict that the price of oil and edible oil in the international market will fluctuate at a high level in 2002 / 03, that is to say, the price of oil and edible oil in the international market in the first three quarters of this year will be higher than that in the same period of 2000 and 2001 In view of the current international market situation, it is expected that the import of oil and edible oil in the first three quarters of this year is still unlikely to impact the domestic market Qxf expects that the rapeseed import will continue to decline in the first three quarters of this year, based on two main reasons: first, the price of rapeseed in the international market will continue to be strong in 2002 / 2003, and the domestic import demand will decline; second, the domestic production and supply are likely to increase this year Qxf in 2002 / 2003, China's oil supply and demand are basically balanced, and the total amount of edible oil is relatively abundant Qxf from the overall supply of oil raw materials, considering that the soybean import volume may increase significantly in the first few months of this year, it is estimated that the total supply of oil raw materials (oil + soybean + cottonseed in the production statistics) in 2002 / 2003 (June 2002 to May 2003) is 4950 About ten thousand tons, a slight increase over the previous year, can basically meet the raw material demand of domestic oil crushing enterprises Among qxf, the pressed rapeseed is about 10.3 million tons, which is about 1.5 million tons less than that of the previous year The main reasons for the decrease are as follows: first, the production of rapeseed was reduced in 2002; second, the import is expected to decline significantly About 21.5 million tons of squeezed soybeans, an increase of about 1.6 million tons, mainly due to: first, the increase in soybean production in 2002; second, the expected increase in soybean imports in 2002 / 2003 Qxf from the current situation, due to the lack of supply, rapeseed pressing has basically ended Soybean imports in coastal areas are relatively large, and large-scale oil processing enterprises have abundant raw materials supply Some small and medium-sized enterprises in the mainland have stopped production due to the poor profit of squeezing and the limited supply of domestic soybeans It is worth mentioning that at present, the domestic oil and oil meal supply is abundant Therefore, from the perspective of the consumption demand of oil products, some small and medium-sized enterprises stop production, indicating that the domestic oil crushing capacity is surplus In terms of the supply of qxf edible oil, it is estimated that from June 2002 to May 2003, about 10.6 million tons of domestic production and 3.5 million tons of imported oil will be produced In terms of oil consumption, it is estimated that the total annual consumption of the market is about 13.3 million tons, including 8.8 million tons for urban and rural households, 2.5 million tons for catering industry and 1.8 million tons for food processing and other consumption From the perspective of total supply and demand, the supply of edible oil is relatively abundant; from the perspective of variety structure, the supply and consumption of rapeseed oil are reduced, and the supply and consumption of soybean oil and palm oil are increased Qxf the global production and trade of oil and edible oil increased this year, and the inventory decreased It is estimated that the rapeseed production of the major exporting countries in 2003 is likely to recover Qxf according to the forecast of the US Department of agriculture in March this year, the global oil production in 2002 / 2003 market year (October 2002 September 2003) is 326.4 million tons, an increase of 267% over the previous year Ten thousand tons, increasing production for the seventh consecutive year The output of main soybean varieties was 194 million tons, an increase of 9.68 million tons; the output of rapeseed was 32.01 million tons, a decrease of 4.07 million tons, the lowest level since 1997 / 1998; the output of peanut was 30.67 million tons, a decrease of 2.43 million tons; the output of cottonseed was 33.28 million tons, a decrease of 3.31 million tons Qxf predicts that the global oil trade volume in 2002 / 2003 will be about 74 million tons, an increase of about 5 million tons over the previous year Among them, more than 62 million tons of soybeans (accounting for 83% of the global oil trade volume), an increase of 6 million tons; about 6.1 million tons of rapeseed (accounting for 8.2% of the global oil trade volume), a decrease of 1.5 million tons; more than 1.4 million tons of peanuts (accounting for 1.9% of the global oil trade volume), a decrease of 200000 tons Qxf forecasts that the oil stock at the end of 2002 / 2003 will be 34.04 million tons, a decrease of 2.47 million tons compared with the previous year, the lowest since 1999 / 2000 Among them, 30.99 million tons of soybeans decreased by 1.05 million tons, 1.27 million tons of rapeseed decreased by 1.1 million tons, and the inventory decreased for the third consecutive year In terms of qxF cooking oil, it is estimated that the global output of vegetable oil in 2002/2003 will be 92 million 390 thousand tons and the consumption will be 93 million tons, both of which are the highest level in history, with an increase of 660 thousand tons and 1 million 680 thousand tons respectively compared with the previous year Among them, soybean oil output was 30.48 million tons, an increase of 1.67 million tons, consumption of 30.44 million tons, an increase of 1.99 million tons; palm oil output was 25.65 million tons, an increase of 320000 tons, consumption of 25.84 million tons, an increase of 560000 tons; vegetable oil output was 11.27 million tons, a decrease of 1.15 million tons, consumption of 11.46 million tons, a decrease of 990000 tons Qxf estimates that the global trade volume of edible oil is 38.6 million tons, an increase of about 2 million tons over the previous year Among them, palm oil is about 18.5 million tons, an increase of about 500000 tons; soybean oil is about 10.5 million tons, an increase of about 1.2 million tons; vegetable oil is more than 2.4 million tons, a slight decrease Qxf forecasts that the global end of term stock of edible oil will fall to 6.72 million tons, the second consecutive year of decline, and the lowest level since 1998 / 1999 Qxf above data shows that the global supply of rapeseed and oil is tight this year; due to the reduction of production of rapeseed and cottonseed, soybean demand will increase, and the share of soybean and soybean oil in global oil and oil consumption will increase In addition, due to the sharp decrease in the global production of rapeseed this year, the price of rapeseed has increased It is expected that the planting area of rapeseed in the major exporting countries will increase by a certain margin in 2003 According to the latest estimates of the relevant information agencies, in 2003 / 2004, Canadian rapeseed production will grow by 54.3%; Australia by 61.7%; and the EU by 10% In the first quarter of qxf, the price of main oil and edible oil varieties fluctuated in the high price level In 2002, the price of oil and edible oil in China rose in an all-round way At the end of the year, the price of main varieties reached the highest point since the rise In the first three months of this year, the prices of rapeseed, soybean, rapeseed oil and soybean oil fluctuated slightly at high prices; the prices of peanut and peanut oil rose; and the prices of palm oil fell Qxf rapeseed: January to April is the off-season of rapeseed trading, and the acquisition of rapeseed has basically ended In terms of the monitored Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions, the purchase price of oil plants rose to about 2500 yuan per ton at the end of last year It is estimated that the price of rapeseed will remain at this price before the new rape seeds are listed this year In view of the current relatively high price level of oil and edible oil, it is expected that the initial price of new rape seeds will be higher than that of the same period last year Qxf soybeans: in the first quarter, the purchase price of soybeans in Northeast China was still relatively strong In the middle of March, the purchase price of some oil plants in Heilongjiang was about 2360 yuan per ton During the Spring Festival, the demand for raw materials has weakened and the price of imported soybeans in Hong Kong has fallen In February and March, the price of soybeans in some sales areas decreased slightly In terms of the monitored Shandong area, in the middle of February, the price of Northeast soybean transported to Shandong was about 2510 yuan per ton, 1.6% lower than that in the middle of January, 30.4% higher than that in the same period of last year; since March, the price of domestic soybean has not changed much, but the supply of domestic soybean has been very limited, and some small and medium-sized enterprises in Shandong and the mainland that squeeze domestic soybean have stopped production successively 2 In March, the price of imported soybeans in Qingdao port was 2480-2520 yuan per ton, 5.7% lower than that in January; in Shanghai port, the price of imported soybeans was 2520-2560 yuan per ton, 3.2% lower than that in January Qxf peanuts: in the first quarter, the price of peanuts in various regions generally increased, mainly due to: first, the domestic consumption during the festival is relatively strong; second, the export demand for the EU is likely to increase (EU lifted the ban on peanuts in China in October last year); third, the production reduction of peanuts in Shandong, the main production area last year (10.5%) is relatively large According to the monitoring, in the middle of March, the price of second-class peanut kernel in Zhengzhou grain wholesale market was 4400 yuan per ton, 4.8% higher than that in the same period of February, 8.6% higher than that in the same period of January and 45.6% higher than that in the same period of last year Qxf vegetable oil: due to insufficient supply and restrained demand at high prices, the price of domestic vegetable oil in January and February continued to be strong, with the ex factory price of grade II vegetable oil in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province of about 6050 yuan per ton, 28.3% higher than the same period of last year; since March, the price has fallen, with the price of 5930 yuan per ton in the middle of March, 2% lower than the same period of last two months, higher than the same period of last year 25.4% Qxf soybean oil: around the middle of January, a large number of imported soybean oil sales in Hong Kong led to a drop in soybean oil prices in Shandong, East China, South China and other regions As far as Shandong Province is concerned, the ex factory price of secondary soybean oil was about 5780 yuan per ton, down 4.5% from the middle of December last year; during the Spring Festival, it rose slightly, and in the middle of February, the ex factory price of secondary soybean oil in Shandong Province was 5880 yuan per ton About RMB, up 1.7% from the middle of January; since March, the price has increased