It is estimated that the volume of global coarse grain trade will increase in 2001-02

Introduction: according to the report of FAO, the volume of global coarse grain trade in 2001 / 02 is expected to increase by 1.5 million tons to 106 million tons compared with the previous report This level is nearly 2.5 million tons lower than last year's trade volume, which reached a record last year As a whole, the gross grain import of developing countries is likely to decrease by 4% to nearly 70 million tons, mainly due to the decrease in Mexican and Brazilian purchases This year, the global crude grain trade volume is expected to decline, including all major varieties of crude grain Global corn imports are expected to decline slightly to 76 million tons Barley and sorghum trade also fell by 18 million tons and 8 million tons, respectively It is also expected that the trade volume of oats, rye and corn will drop to 2 million tons, 1.4 million tons and 200000 tons respectively Although the volume of global coarse grain trade is expected to decline this year, as the world's largest producer of coarse grain, the export volume of coarse grain may be slightly higher than that in 2000 / 01 However, a small increase in U.S coarse grain exports is not enough to offset the decline in exports from Argentina, Canada and the European Union The process of barley sales in the European Union has so far been far lower than that in the same period last year, and Canada's barley exports have also been affected by the decline in production, partially offset by a significant increase in Australian shipping In other exporting countries, China's corn shipping volume may be lower than last year, but the export volume remains large due to the decline of production On the contrary, Brazil has become an important corn exporter and competitor this year due to the increase of domestic production and the strong demand for non GM corn in the international market Brazil prohibits the commercial cultivation of genetically modified agricultural products Hungary's corn harvest and Russia's soaring barley production could also lead to increased grain exports from these countries APD forecasts that the total volume of coarse grain imports from African countries in 2001 / 02 will be 14 million tons, 1 million tons lower than last year North African countries will reduce their imports this year, mainly due to increased domestic production But many countries in the Sahara may import the same or more coarse grain as last year With the exception of Kenya, where corn production is good and stocks are relatively sufficient, imports will be cut The volume of coarse grain imports in southern Africa is likely to increase significantly, as inadequate production in many countries has led to increased import demand, particularly in Zimbabwe and Zambia Zambia's climate became the main reason for the sharp decline of corn production in 2001, so the import demand increased in 2001 / 02 Zimbabwe's corn production is usually the surplus country In 2001, the production also fell sharply As commercial farms reduced the planting area, the corn import volume may soar to more than 400000 tons, the highest since the mid-1990s APD Asia's imports of coarse grain in 2001 / 02 may be slightly higher than last year's estimate, reaching nearly 58 million tons The increase in imports is mainly due to the expected increase in imports from Indonesia, Pakistan, the Philippines and Turkey On the contrary, most of the other Asian countries' imports are likely to decline In Japan, the yen's falling exchange rate and the outbreak of mad cow disease have reduced demand for corn imports South Korean corn imports are likely to decline due to good feed wheat imports APD Europe, the European Union, Bulgaria and Russia are expected to increase crude grain imports, but higher corn and barley production will mean lower imports from Romania and Poland Latin America and the Caribbean, with the exception of Mexico and Brazil, most other countries are likely to import more coarse grain than last year Mexico, the region's largest importer, will reduce imports of corn and sorghum, mainly due to increased production in 2001 Brazil's record corn production also increased domestic supply and made the country a very important corn exporter Only a small amount of corn import is needed, because the transportation cost from the main domestic production area to the sales area is high APD (author:) to feed Weibo to: