It is difficult for domestic soybean market price to rise against the season

Introduction: in the coming season of soybean market in China and the United States since October last year, 10 In the coming season of soybean market in China and the United States, the domestic soybean market did not show the seasonal downward trend that most people expected, but went out of a wave of anti seasonal upward trend Now it's the coming season of soybean market in South America, will the domestic soybean go out of the same anti seasonal upward trend? The author believes that according to the current domestic soybean market development situation, it is difficult for soybean prices to make a difference again The specific analysis is as follows: FCD 1 The difference of market environment FCD 1 The reduction of production and increase of production FCD in the United States last year was affected by both the decrease of planting area and the drought The total output of soybean in the United States decreased significantly, from 78.67 million tons in the previous year to 74.29 million tons Million tons, down 5.6% (USDA March 2003 report) Although China's soybean production increased from 15.41 million tons in the previous year to 16.4 million tons last year, there is a big difference between the two, which makes the world's soybean supply expectation tense Especially China, a big soybean consumer, is very sensitive to the world's soybean supply and demand As a result, the domestic soybean market price rose out of season In this year's marketing season of South American soybeans, the output of South American soybeans did not decrease as that of the United States last year, but increased by a record large amount, which made a new change in the world soybean supply FCD 2 GM certificate FCD last year, the marketing season of soybean in China and the United States, also happens to be the expiry date of China's interim GM safety certificate The market is generally worried that the replacement of new certificates will bring difficulties in soybean import, so there is a phenomenon of rush purchase At that time, heavy snowfall in Northeast China blocked soybean transportation, further aggravating the shortage of spot supply FCD 3, CBOT soybean price FCD take the may contract as an example, CBOT soybean began to rise from 419 cents / bushel in January 2002, and it was not until 588 yuan / bushel in September that the stage top appeared, which lasted for 8 months, with an increase of 40% After that, although there was a seasonal correction of about 10%, it soon rose again, and it was consolidated repeatedly in the high area above 550 cents At the same time, the increase of FCD in CBOT soybean is 40%, but the increase of domestic soybean is only 11.6%, which leaves room for the further increase of domestic soybean Especially after November last year, CBOT soybeans remained in the high market, which provided important support for the later rise of domestic soybeans Since then, the domestic soybean price has risen to 2720 yuan / ton at the end of the year before a correction The time of the stage high is four months later than that of CBOT, and the price increase is 29.9% According to the forecast of the agricultural survey team of the National Bureau of statistics of China and the United States, the planting area of soybean crops in 2003 was 12.989 million hectares, 3.6% more than that in 2002, of which 9.226 million hectares were sown, 5.8% more than that in 2002 The national grain and Oil Information Center predicted that the sown area of soybean was 9.9 million hectares, an increase of 4.5% over 2002 FCD 2 Seasonal fluctuation rule FCD soybean is a crop with annual production cycle, and its price fluctuation is closely related to season It is very important for futures investors to grasp the seasonal law of price fluctuation The results of FCD statistics show that the seasonal high and low points of the year are easy to appear between November December and April May, and the high and low points alternately appear, usually in November and December at the end of the first year, and in April and may of the next year, and vice versa This is because November and December are the season of the northern hemisphere soybean market and the sowing season of the southern hemisphere soybean, while April and may are the season of the southern hemisphere soybean market and the sowing season of the northern hemisphere soybean The change of the yield and the increase or decrease of the sowing area are very easy to cause the market fluctuations, and then produce a turning point These two periods may be when the inventory is the most or the least in a year FCD is in the bull market cycle of soybeans this year, but the upcoming listing of record South American soybeans is forming stage pressure on the further rise of soybean prices FCD III new trends of Brazilian soybean export policy FCD, after China issued a soybean import license to Brazil, on March 27, Brazil's president signed a bill allowing the sale of genetically modified soybeans, allowing the sale of genetically modified soybeans in 2003 / 2004 According to the decree, Brazilian farmers can sell genetically modified soybeans for the 2002 / 2003 crop year on domestic and foreign markets before the end of the market year on 31 January 2004 After that, any trans stock soybean must be destroyed The Act prohibits the cultivation of genetically modified soybeans in new crop years, prohibits the provision of credit to genetically modified products, and decides to impose fines on those who violate the act The Brazilian government's decision will speed up the sale of new beans to be listed, thus increasing the supply of soybeans in the short term Although its effect on the market is bad in the short term, it is good in the long term To sum up, the listing of South American soybeans will have more and more impact on international soybean prices Domestic soybeans will no longer have the same anti seasonal rise as last year, but the possibility of periodic decline is relatively large fcd   fcd