It fell more than 2,200 yuan in a month!

The price of ABS reached 18,000 yuan (ton price, the same below) in mid-October, and then peaked and fell.
The decline has continued for more than a month, with a decline of more than 2,200 yuan, or more than 12%
.
Looking at the market outlook, the market situation is still not optimistic due to the sufficient supply due to the release of new production capacity and the difficulty in recovering from the sluggish demand
.
Industry insiders believe that the ABS market has not yet been adjusted in place, and it will take time to completely get rid of the trough
.

Market sentiment is pessimistic, prices still have room to fall

Zheng Xin, an analyst at Longzhong Information, said that in the current ABS market, merchants buy up and not down, and the atmosphere in the market is pessimistic
.
In the course of more than a month of decline, the ABS market rushed down almost in a straight line.
Because the multi-party failed to complete the rebound, the market price was less than 1,000 yuan from the low of the year
.

Industry insiders said that an important factor in the unsatisfactory ABS market is the release of new production capacity
.
Zhangzhou Chimei's 450,000-ton/year ABS plant was put into operation on September 8, and the overall operating rate has reached about 60%
.
The increase in supply kept the ABS market under pressure in the fourth quarter
.

At present, the overall operating rate of ABS is around 82%
.
The Zhenjiang Chimei D-series and flame-retardant ABS units that were parked on November 1 were put into operation on November 7, and the load was increased to 50-60%; the Tianjin Dagu unit was temporarily reduced to 7-80%, and then gradually recovered in recent days.
Normal; Jilin Petrochemical and other devices are at full capacity, and the ABS market supply is safe
.
In sharp contrast, the operating rate of ABS in the first half of the year was almost 100%
.

Wang Chunming, general manager of Shandong Ruiyang Chemical Trading Co.
, Ltd.
, said that with the decline of the ABS market, profit margins are also shrinking.
Taking 0215A as an example, the average gross profit is around 4,000 yuan, down more than 10% month-on-month
.

Looking at the market outlook, although manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices, and some brands have shown signs of a slight rebound due to tight goods, the market supply is sufficient, business confidence is still insufficient, and the ABS market still has room for downward adjustment
.

The upstream is too busy and the market is in a falling stage

As the upstream raw material of ABS, both the butadiene and styrene markets are in a declining stage, and the acrylonitrile market is in a stalemate, and it is difficult for the cost side to have a pulling effect on the ABS market
.

According to Li Min, an analyst at Jinlianchuang, the operating pressure of the butadiene market has increased, because three sets of butadiene plants were put into operation in the second half of the year, namely, the second phase of Zhejiang Petrochemical's 200,000-ton/year butadiene plant was put into operation at the end of July, and in August On the 19th, the 140,000-ton/year butadiene plant of Luqing Petrochemical was put into operation, and the 130,000-ton/year butadiene plant of Gulei Petrochemical was put into operation on August 15
.

In the early stage, the continuous decline of the butadiene market led to the downstream delisting and wait-and-see.
Some stages of rigid demand accumulated obviously.
Later, due to the weather, the supply of goods from Northeast China flowed out, and the transaction of supply of goods in Shandong improved
.
Recently, the external market has performed strongly, the supply of goods in East China has no intention of falling, and the spot market of butadiene has been pushed up slightly after it has stopped falling
.
However, the supply of butadiene is still abundant in the short term, and the market lacks continuous driving force.
The price in some areas falls below 6,000 yuan, and the market outlook may continue to make up for the decline
.

Another raw material, styrene market, also fell sharply
.
Li Min introduced that this year, the domestic styrene market has expanded a lot, and the market has been suppressed by the short side
.
Production enterprises are affected by low profits, and the operating rate is only around 75%
.

Looking at the market outlook, some short-term maintenance devices will be restored soon, and no new maintenance will be added in the later period, and new devices will be put into operation in December, which may make the styrene market worse
.

Looking at the raw material acrylonitrile, the market is dominated by stalemate and shock
.
Recently, the spot supply of acrylonitrile has been slightly loose, and the atmosphere of speculation in the market has cooled down.
However, the factory is willing to support the price obviously
.

The downstream support is unable to supply more and demand less, the trend is difficult to change

Li Min and other market participants said that previously ABS downstream enterprises were affected by factors such as insufficient domestic demand and restricted export orders, and the inventory of finished products was high
.

In addition, starting from mid-to-late September, due to the impact of power restrictions, "dual control" and environmental protection inspections, the downstream operation was restricted again, while most ABS petrochemical manufacturers maintained normal production, only a few manufacturers were slightly affected, and the overall supply was lost.
Less than the demand loss, the contradiction between supply and demand intensifies, resulting in the market slump
.

Judging from the published data on the home appliance industry, downstream demand is not optimistic
.
In October, the output of household refrigerators fell by 13.
5% year-on-year; the output of household washing machines fell by 8.
7% year-on-year; the output of color TVs fell by 5.
5% year-on-year
.
In addition, car production and sales in October fell by 8.
8% and 9.
4% year-on-year, respectively
.

At present, with the continuous increase of the national power supply guarantee, the coal stock has broken through the growth, and the power shortage has also been effectively alleviated
.
According to the State Grid news, the current scale of orderly electricity consumption has been significantly reduced.
Except for some provinces and local time periods, the orderly electricity consumption measures have been taken against high-energy-consuming and high-polluting enterprises, and the orderly electricity consumption scale of the whole network is close to zero
.
However, due to the low season and the fact that it will take time for the news of power curtailment to be transmitted to the terminal, it is unlikely that the operating rate of the downstream industry will increase significantly
.