Is 2019-ncov mutated as the world scrambles to analyze live samples? Will the epidemic worsen?

Author: Wang Fang 2019 ncov has influenced many countries and regions in the world According to media reports, at present, the eighth infected patient has been found in the United States, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in South Korea has increased to 15, Germany has 7, Australia has 12, the Philippines has 2, Russia and the United Kingdom have 2, Canada has 4 Global laboratories are scrambling to analyze live virus samples February 2 According to a news report published in nature, a top international journal, virologists all over the world are eager to obtain 2019 ncov live samples, and are making plans to test vaccines and drugs, establish animal models and explore biological issues related to the virus Doi: 10.1038/d41586-020-00262-7 according to the report, Wuhan Virus Research Institute is the first laboratory to isolate and study the virus After that, on January 28, a laboratory in Australia also collected virus samples from infected people Currently, laboratories in France, Germany and Hong Kong are isolating virus samples from patients Bart haagmans, a virologist at Erasmus University Medical Center in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, said he hoped to get a number of different samples to determine whether and how the virus evolved How many people will be infected with 2019 ncov? On January 31, the top international journals, the lancet and nature, simultaneously published articles on the scale of influence of 2019 ncov According to a new study published in the lancet by researchers from the Li Ka Shing School of medicine of the University of Hong Kong, the basic reproduction number of 2019-ncov is 2.68 (95% CRI, 2.47 – 2.86) in the benchmark case, and the doubling time of the epidemic is 6.4 days; if not considering the possible seasonal transmission characteristics of the virus, and assuming that the population flow in 2020 is not affected by the epidemic, the deadline is January 25 It is estimated that 75815 people may be infected with the virus in Wuhan A news report published on nature at https://doi.org/10.1016/s0140-6736 (20) 30260-9 mentions two international predictions on the number of people infected with 2019-ncov: one is that the virus may have infected 39000 people out of 30 million people in Wuhan; the other is that in the worst case scenario, 190000 people may eventually be infected in Wuhan Doi: 10.1038/d41586-020-00236-9 however, both articles mentioned that the premise of making predictions is that no effective measures have been taken to prevent and curb the spread of 2019 ncov At present, all regions of the country have taken measures to curb the further spread of the virus At the same time, the research and development of anti-2019-ncov vaccines and drugs have been carried out at home and abroad In this case, the final impact of the epidemic may be far less than expected Does the virus mutate in asymptomatic carriers? On January 30, a report published in the international top medical journal the New England Journal of Medicine introduced a case of 2019 ncov infection outside Asia, and the infection appeared to occur in the incubation period of index patients Doi: 10.1056/nejmc20011468 the report mentioned that a healthy German businessman contacted a business partner (index patient) from Shanghai, China between January 20 and January 21 The index patient was in good health during his stay in Germany and showed no signs or symptoms of infection until he returned home and tested positive for 2019-ncov on January 26 Later, the German businessman was also tested positive for 2019 ncov, but according to him, he did not leave Germany within 14 days before the symptoms appeared In other words, the infection is likely to occur in the incubation period of the index patient With the emergence of asymptomatic infections at home and abroad, some researchers worry that 2019-ncov may have been mutated and will have a greater impact In response, Kristian Andersen, an infectious disease researcher at Scripps Institute in California, said mutation was part of the virus's life cycle, and there had been no previous examples of outbreaks of pathogens becoming more destructive In addition, a 2018 study on SARS in primate cells found that the persistent mutations of the virus during the 2003 outbreak may have just reduced its destructiveness 2019-ncov is milder than SARS, and the "turning point" of the epidemic is coming In the epidemic data released by the national health and Health Commission on February 2, the cumulative number of cured and discharged cases (328 cases) exceeds the number of dead cases (304 cases) for the first time Jiang Min, director of traditional Chinese Medicine Department of Beijing Shijitan Hospital, said in an interview with the media that this is a positive signal that the current epidemic prevention and control work has achieved some results So, when will the epidemic usher in the "turning point"? Chen Wei, academician of the Chinese Academy of engineering and researcher of the Academy of military medicine of the Chinese Academy of Military Sciences, pointed out that from the current situation, the "turning point" of the epidemic may come soon, but it can not be relaxed after the "turning point", because it is not clear whether the epidemic will usher in the second and third peaks, which needs to be prepared for a long-term struggle Despite the increasing number of confirmed cases, a report published in nature on January 31 noted that 2019 ncov seems to be milder, with a fatality rate of between 2% and 3%, compared with the 10% fatality rate of SARS 17 years ago With the official delivery of Wuhan huoshenshan hospital on February 2, the epidemic situation in Wuhan will be better controlled and alleviated At the same time, with the development and continuity of prevention and control measures in other regions of China and the development of anti-2019-ncov vaccines and drugs, the epidemic situation will be better controlled Reference: [1] China coronavirus: labs worldwide scalable to analyze live samples [2] coronavirus outlet: what's next? [3] Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019 ncov outlet originating in Wuhan, China: a modeling study [4] transmission of 2019 ncov infection from an asymptomatic contact in Germany [5] what does it mean that the number of discharge exceeds the number of death for the first time? Is the turning point coming? Jeni turtle