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Tehran's nuclear talks could reach an agreement that would allow Iran to export more crude oil, but global supplies of crude oil have continued to rise. Crude oil's recent stability has been fragile, with Brent crude retreating after hitting an in-day high of $55.01 a barrel in Asia-Europe on Monday (March 16), while U.S. crude oil (NYMEX) climbed to an in-day high of 44.78.
western powers hope to reach a deal with Iran this week after the U.S. and European powers issued a crude oil compromise to suspend U.N. sanctions against Iran.
NYMEX have returned to the decline over the past two weeks as growing evidence that a global oversupply of crude oil is leading to a rapid increase in inventories. Societe Generale expects global crude inventories to rise at a rate of 1.6m barrels a day and could accelerate to 1.7m barrels a day in the second quarter.
, a crude oil analyst at Texas-listed Bank of California, said, "A new round of declines in crude oil swept the market last week, and we expect this trend to continue." Crude oil and refined oil inventories increased by just 200 million barrels between March and June. In any way, this is good for oil prices. China
to build strategic oil reserves in the face of falling oil prices, analysts say the new warehouses won't be operational until later this year, weakening recent import demand.
low oil prices have led production and exploration companies to cut back on oil and gas drilling, but it will take some time to reduce production.
, analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a research note that the decline in U.S. drilling could only lead to a slight drop in crude oil production in the second quarter. At the same time, Iran's production and exports have increased significantly in the short-selling crude oil market. "The Iran nuclear deal will only exacerbate the oversupply of OPEC crude oil in the coming months, which supports our short-term outlook," Barclays said. At
20:17 BST, Brent was trading at $54.30 a barrel and NYMEX was trading at $44.34 a barrel.
