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On Thursday, the main 2009 contract of Shanghai aluminum came under pressure to the downside, with the highest 14685 yuan / ton and the lowest 14420 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 14505 yuan / ton, down 1.
06% from the closing price of the previous trading day; As of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun Aluminum was reported at $1768 / ton, up 0.
43%
per day.
Market focus: (1) The number of ADP employment in the United States in July was actually announced to be 167,000, the expected value was 1.
2 million, and the previous value was revised to 4.
314 million
.
(2) The Bank of England announced its latest interest rate decision: keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.
1%, and keep the total size of asset purchases unchanged at 745 billion pounds, in line with market expectations
.
Spot analysis: On August 6, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14630-14670 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14650 yuan / ton, down 270 yuan / ton
per day.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 107,560 tons on Thursday, an increase of 2,298 tons per day; On August 5, LME aluminum stocks were 1637675 tons, down 4,375 tons
per day.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2009 contract are 78944 lots, a daily increase of 1044 lots, short positions of 95288 lots, a daily decrease of 3463 lots, a net short position of 16344 lots, a daily increase of 4507 lots, more increase and short, net space decrease
.
Market research and judgment: On August 6, the main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2009 came under pressure to the downside
.
The confrontation between China and the United States is escalating, and there is great uncertainty in the trade situation between the two countries; At the same time, the profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum production has expanded, which has stimulated aluminum plants to accelerate the resumption of new production; At the same time, downstream demand has gradually weakened, the market procurement willingness is not strong, Shanghai aluminum inventory has rebounded slightly in recent days, and the pressure on aluminum prices has increased
.
However, global monetary policy remains accommodative, coupled with signs of slowing down the epidemic in the United States, which is conducive to the restoration of market confidence; And inventories are still low overall, and supply-side pressure is still limited
.
Technically, the main 2009 contract daily MACD dead cross signs of Shanghai-aluminum main force, pay attention to the 20-day moving average support, and expect short-term pullback shock
.
