Inventories continued to fall, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum fluctuated and rose

Market focus: (1) The Eurozone manufacturing PMI recorded 51.
1 in July, higher than the expected 50.
1, and the previous value was 47.
4, returning to above the boom-bust line, the highest level
in 25 months.
(2) U.
S.
Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the U.
S.
$1 trillion relief bill will be introduced
this week.
(3) China's tenth batch of aluminum scrap scrap imports in 2020 approved 1110 tons, a total of 694769 tons of scrap aluminum import quota issued this year
.

Spot analysis: On July 27, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14560-14600 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14580 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 40 yuan / ton
.
The supply of goods in the intraday market is still loose, the enthusiasm of holders to ship has increased significantly compared with the previous two weeks, the middlemen consider that the premium has fallen, the receiving is also more active, the two sides are trading fairly, overall, there are more shippers than receivers
.
A large household received goods normally within the day, and the purchase volume was not more than 10,000 tons
.
Downstream on-demand goods are mainly taken, and the willingness to replenish goods is not high
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 98,821 tons, a daily decrease of 1,209 tons; On July 24, LME aluminum stocks were 1649275 tons, an increase of 8,850 tons
per day.
As of the week of July 24, the Shanghai aluminum inventory in the previous period was reported 222498 tons, a weekly decrease of 10,829 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2009 contract were 55830 lots, an increase of 1830 lots per day, short positions were 75095 lots, a daily increase of 2112 lots, net short positions were 19265 lots, a daily increase of 282 lots, long and short positions increased, and net space increased
.

Market research and judgment: On July 27, the main force of Shanghai aluminum rose in 2009
.
The worsening pandemic in the United States and the deterioration of Sino-US relations have led to heightened concerns about the economic outlook; At the same time, the profit of domestic electrolytic aluminum production has expanded, which has stimulated aluminum plants to accelerate the resumption of new production; And the rise in the Shanghai ratio has led to the expansion of the import profit window, stimulating overseas source imports, and the pressure on aluminum prices has increased
.
However, domestic downstream demand continues to perform well, procurement willingness is still good, Shanghai aluminum inventory continues to fall, and the inventory in the plant continues to degrade, which has a strong
support for aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, the market supply is still loose, and the enthusiasm of cargo holders has increased significantly compared with the previous two weeks.

Technically, the mainstream long position of the main 2009 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position greatly, focusing on the resistance at the 14400 position, and it is expected that the short-term shock will be strong
.
Operationally, it is recommended to go long at a light position around 14180 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 14080 yuan / ton
.