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Statistics show that since the beginning of this year, the two major international benchmark oil prices, Brent crude oil and the United States WTI, have risen by more than 40%.
On March 2, the price of Brent crude oil rushed to $113.
36/barrel, while WTI rose to $112.
51/barrel
.
On March 3, Brent crude oil once rushed to a new high of $119.
84, and WTI hit its highest level since 2008, reaching $116.
57 / barrel, and the two major oil prices remained in the $100/barrel-$110/barrel range at the close
.
In the face of high oil prices, many countries began to release crude oil reserves
.
On March 1, the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release 60 million barrels of crude oil from global reserves in response to the sharp rise in oil prices, of which the United States will release 30 million barrels of strategic crude oil reserves, and Germany then said it will release 3% of its crude oil reserves, or about 434,000 tons
.
It is understood that these 60 million barrels of crude oil account for about 4% of IEA's total reserves and can be continuously released for 30 days
at the scale of 2 million barrels per day.
However, the industry generally believes that the release of these crude oil reserves will not have a substantial effect on the "cooling" of oil prices, or even enough to offset the reduced supply of Russian crude oil in the market
.
According to investment bank Mizuho, 60 million barrels is only equivalent to 6 days of Russian crude oil production and 12 days of crude oil exports
.
At the same time, in the face of the rapid increase in oil prices, the "OPEC+" production reduction alliance still decided to continue the current pace of moderate production increases, that is, 400,000 barrels per day of monthly production
.
OPEC+ said that the current price fluctuations are not caused by changes in market fundamentals, but are the result of local frictions, so the slow production increase plan should be maintained
.
In fact, since OPEC producers collectively account for 40% of global crude oil supply, Western countries, led by the United States, have been urging OPEC to quickly increase supply to quell severe inflation and soaring oil and gas prices
.
At present, many countries in the United States and Europe have felt the impact of
soaring oil prices.
According to the American Automobile Association, the average price of gasoline in the United States has risen to $3.
619 per gallon
on March 1.
On the same day, Dutch natural gas futures, one of Europe's benchmark natural gas prices, surged 50% to a record high
.
Industry advisory firm Ruijied Energy pointed out that the actual production increase scale of "OPEC+" in the past was lower than the set target, and it is expected that due to Western sanctions, Russia's crude oil exports may be reduced by 1 million barrels per day, which will further boost oil prices
.
The industry generally believes that the current round of soaring oil prices is closely related
to the current tense situation in Russia and Ukraine.
Due to the continuous expansion of sanctions against Russia by Europe and the United States, Russian crude oil may be forced to "delist", coupled with the impasse in Iran's nuclear negotiations again, making it difficult for Iranian crude oil to return to the market for a while, and it is difficult for oil prices to "cool" in the short term
.
According to CNBC News Network, due to Western countries' financial sanctions against Russia, about 70% of Russian crude oil export transactions have been forced to be suspended, if Russian crude oil export transactions are completely blocked, oil prices will rise strongly in the next few weeks, which has caused panic among many investment banks on Wall Street
.
According to statistics, Russia, as one of the world's largest oil producers, can contribute about 5 million barrels of crude oil, 2.
7 million barrels of diesel and other petroleum products to the world every day, of which 2.
5 million barrels to 2.
6 million barrels of crude oil are exported to Europe through pipelines or tankers every day, and another 2 million barrels per day of petroleum products are exported to the United States, Europe and Canada
.
Industry analyst S&P Global Platts pointed out that Russia's flagship Urals crude is the main raw material for refineries in northwestern Europe and the Mediterranean, with buyers including Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Greece, Romania, Turkey and Bulgaria
.
In view of this, investment bank Morgan Stanley has adjusted its expectations for oil price movements, and expects the average price of Brent crude oil to be $110/barrel in the second quarter of this year, and may even jump to $125/barrel
.
Industry advisory firm Ruijied Energy believes that oil prices are expected to hit $130 per barrel
in the short and medium term.