International oil prices have risen for five consecutive years, how to adjust the price of refined oil products this time?

A new round of refined oil price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on October 10, but the possibility of "stranding" is greater
.
The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission said that it is expected that in this round of refined oil price adjustment window, the possibility of price adjustment "stranded" is greater
.
According to the current oil price management measures, if the price adjustment is "stranded", the unadjusted amount will be included in the accumulation or offset
of the next price adjustment.

Domestic refined oil prices are highly correlated
with international crude oil prices.
Recently, mainly affected by the decision of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers to significantly reduce production by 2 million barrels / day, the price of crude oil futures in the international market has risen
for 5 consecutive trading days.
The international 10-day moving average price of crude oil began to recover from the low point at the beginning of the month, and the decline is gradually narrowing
compared with the previous 10-day moving average price.

According to Tonglian data, the prices of WTI in New York and Brent in London on October 7 were $92.
64 and $97.
92 per barrel, respectively, up $13.
15 and $9.
96 respectively compared with September 30, an increase of 16.
54% and 11.
32%,
respectively.

Affected by this, the price of fuel oil in Singapore also rose sharply, with the price of low-sulfur MOPS rising by 59 US dollars / ton, and the price of high sulfur 380 fuel oil MOPS rising by 24.
95 US dollars / ton
.

Fundamentally, OPEC production cuts have exceeded expectations in recent days, and US crude oil and refined oil inventories have declined, which has continuously pushed up crude oil prices
.

Specifically, in addition to OPEC's decision to start in November 2022, the agreed production will be reduced by 2 million bpd
from the agreed production in August.
According to the US EIA, the actual reported decrease in commercial crude oil inventories for the week ended September 30 was 1.
356 million barrels, an expected increase of 205.
2 barrels and a decrease of 215,000 barrels in the previous value; gasoline inventories actually decreased by 4.
728 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 1.
334 million barrels and the previous value decreased by 2.
422 million barrels; refined oil inventories actually decreased by 3.
443 million barrels, which is expected to decrease by 136.
7 barrels, and the previous value decreased by 2.
891 million barrels
.

In addition to the upcoming price adjustment, since the beginning of this year, domestic refined oil prices have been adjusted a total of 18 times, including 11 increases and 7 downward adjustments
.
The Price Monitoring Center of the National Development and Reform Commission said that based on the analysis and forecasting of a number of institutions, the average price of international crude oil in this round has decreased
slightly compared with the previous round.
In addition, exchange rate movements are taken into account
.

Zhuo Chuang Zhuo Chuang information refined oil analyst Dai Tiandong told the first financial and economics, in this pricing cycle, the domestic reference crude oil change rate gradually turned from negative to positive, the calculation results show that the close on October 7, the domestic 9th working day reference crude oil change rate of 0.
19%, it is expected that gasoline and diesel will be raised by 10 yuan / ton, because the adjustment range of this round of calculation has not exceeded the red line of 50 yuan / ton, so the retail price limit of refined oil in this round will not be adjusted, and the price adjustment window is 24:00 on October 10, This will be the first time this year that the adjustment of the retail price limit of domestic refined oil products has been stranded
.

At present, OPEC's production cuts have had a strong boosting effect
on international crude oil prices.
Gui Chenxi, chief energy analyst of CITIC Futures, said that if other variables are not considered, the current oil price center may break through $100 / barrel
.
The upside height depends on the duration of OPEC's production cuts, and if it is implemented for only two months, the impact will be relatively limited; If it continues into the whole of next year, it will continue to push up oil prices
.

In addition, in terms of diesel wholesale, Dai Tiandong mentioned that recently many domestic diesel sales have been restricted and restricted, and international crude oil has risen for five consecutive working days, and the market is bullish and the atmosphere is strong, so the recent domestic diesel prices are mostly sold
at local prices.

As well as gasoline, with the end of the holiday terminal gas station or there is a phased replenishment phenomenon, gasoline demand or gradually slowed down, the overall domestic gasoline prices showed a shock trend
.
As the temperature in the north continues to fall, the demand for
refined oil products is suppressed to a certain extent.