International oil prices are weak, and some institutions have issued pessimistic forecasts

On Wednesday (November 17), international oil prices fell as US gasoline inventories fell more than expected last week, which may increase pressure
on the Biden administration to release oil from emergency reserves to curb soaring gasoline prices.
And several industry body forecasts hint at a possible oversupply
next year.

To lower gasoline prices, US President Joe Biden has been considering the release of oil from the
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
Gasoline prices at California gas stations hit record highs this week, however, members of Congress are divided
on whether that needs to be done.

U.
S.
House Majority Leader Hoyer said late Tuesday (Nov.
16) that he disagreed with Senate Majority Leader Schumer's call on Sunday to use the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to lower oil prices, saying the reserve was to fill the crude oil supply gap
in an emergency.

Gasoline inventories fell by 2.
792 million barrels in the week ended Nov.
12, much higher than the expected decline of 731,000 barrels
, data released Tuesday by the American Petroleum Institute (API).
Although crude inventories rose by 655,000 barrels, the increase was less than the expected 1.
55 million barrels
.
The official U.
S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) weekly inventory report will be released
on Wednesday at 23:30 Beijing time.

Leona Liu, an analyst at Singapore-based DailyFX, said: "With the holiday season approaching, the increase in travel demand may be the reason behind the decline in gasoline inventories in the
United States.
(Now) that could put more pressure on President Biden to release the U.
S.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which could put oil prices at risk
.
In the short term, the upcoming U.
S.
Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory report could be a catalyst
for the next move.
”

The market generally believes that even if the United States does not hesitate to use the strategic petroleum reserve, the benefits to American consumers will be small
.
The release of reserves can only serve as a temporary relief, requiring increased supply from U.
S.
shale producers or the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to truly address the issue
.

But OPEC Secretary-General Barkindo said on Tuesday that OPEC expects oil supplies to show signs of excess from next month, so its members and partners (OPEC+) must be "very, very cautious"
when reviewing output policy at their monthly meetings.
But he declined to say whether he thought OPEC+ would stick to its current policy
of increasing production by 400,000 b/d a month when it meets Dec.
2.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its 2022 Brent average price forecast to $79.
40 a barrel on Tuesday, but expects gains to likely slow as oil prices hit multi-year highs last month pushing up global production
.
Preliminary data for October showed a slight recovery in oil inventories in OECD countries
.

"As more countries reopen their borders, global oil demand is strengthening
due to strong gasoline consumption and increased international travel," the IEA said.
But it also said rising coronavirus cases, weaker industrial activity and higher oil prices in Europe could dent demand
.

"Forecasts not only from OPEC, but also from the IEA and others indicate that there will be an oversupply in the market next year, as measured by OECD inventories, which is further evidence of why we should be very cautious and cautious
in our decisions every month," Barkindo said.
”

Barkindo also stressed that OPEC has a vested interest in ensuring a sustained recovery in the global economy, "We believe that we are on the track of recovery, and for us at OPEC, we will continue to take all necessary measures so that the recovery is not affected
.
" ”