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During the holiday season, Trump was infected by the new crown virus, macro uncertainties increased, and the volatility of risky assets such as non-ferrous metals increased
.
In terms of industrial fundamentals, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum fell sharply, and the latest social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 667,000 tons, down 49,000 tons from the previous value, and low inventory supported aluminum prices
.
In terms of spot, LME aluminum spot discount was $25.
50/ton, compared with $29.
75/ton
in the previous session.
The market price transaction is concentrated in 14630-14660 yuan / ton, which is more than 80 yuan / ton lower than the previous day's spot price, and the spot premium is between 240-280 yuan / ton, traders have entered a holiday state, the trade volume is less, and before the holiday, more tend to clear the goods without inventory, shipment is active, the market circulation is sufficient, a small amount of downstream replenishment, because it is close to the holiday, and there are some stockpiles in the early stage, and the receipt is general
.
In terms of stocks, LME aluminum ingot stocks decreased by 0.
54 million tons to 1.
4231 million tons
on October 8.
According to my nonferrous metals, on September 28, domestic aluminum ingot social stocks decreased by 35,000 tons from Thursday to 662,000 tons
.
In terms of news, on the morning of October 7, Western Australia's alumina was traded at a FOB price of 264.
5 US dollars / ton (equivalent to the CIF price of 282.
5 US dollars / ton in Chinese ports), with a scale of 35,000 tons, and the shipping schedule was in early December, and the whereabouts were unknown, which was about 4 US dollars / ton lower than the previous (September 24) transaction FOB price, which is equivalent to the external price of about 2251 yuan / ton of imported alumina in China's mainstream ports
.
At present, it is China's National Day holiday, and Chinese buyers have not officially participated in the trading of the Australian alumina market, and the enthusiasm of the Australian alumina market is weaker
than in the previous period.
The profit of the supply-side smelter remained high, and the output will continue to be released in October, Yunnan Shenhuo Aluminum Co.
, Ltd.
and Yunnan Wenshan Aluminum Co.
, Ltd.
were put into operation, Yunnan Weiqiao also began to be electrified, the industry resumed production capacity continued to release, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry continued to rise, and the pressure on the supply side in the fourth quarter was greater than in the previous period
.
Before the holiday, because the downstream reserve aluminum ingot social inventory is still declining, but after the festival with the end of the downstream warehouse, it is expected that the electrolytic aluminum inventory will have an inflection point, coupled with the domestic and foreign alumina prices remain sluggish, the cost of electrolytic aluminum is not supported enough, and the overall aluminum price still has room
to fall.
