Influence of SARS on soybean and its products market in China

Introduction: the spread of SARS in Chinese cities will probably be effectively controlled However, as a large number of migrant workers return home to prepare for wheat harvest, and some students leave school and return home because of panic, SARS may occur in rural areas At present, governments at all levels are taking various measures to prevent the occurrence and spread of SARS in rural areas 8yk 1 Affected by SARS, domestic soybean meal prices will fall 8yk Although there is no evidence that SARS virus comes from chickens or pigs, scientists say the virus is likely to come from animals Many state-owned companies have banned the purchase of poultry in Guangdong, while people have tried to avoid contact with poultry, including ducks, and China's exports of chicken, pork and other products have also been affected 90% of soybean meal production is used in feed industry, while pig and chicken feed accounts for more than 70% of the total feed industry On April 22 and 23, 8yk soybean meal exchange in Dalian fell for two consecutive days, of which, on April 22, it closed with a stop and a drop The fall of futures market reflected people's psychological panic, and also brought some pressure to the spot market On April 23, some dealers began to sell soybean meal below the market price At the same time, in the middle of March, there are 3 ships of 175700 tons of Brazilian soybeans arriving at the port, and it is estimated that there will still be about 400000 tons of Brazilian soybeans arriving at the port in the last ten days; in May, 700000 tons of Brazilian soybeans will arrive at the port of China Some small oil companies bought these imported Brazilian soybeans and started to produce soybean meal, which also brought some impact to the soybean meal market If the soybean meal price falls in the later stage of 8yk, the impact on Chinese soybean crushing enterprises will be huge, because the price of imported soybean in Hong Kong is generally high in the near future 8yk 2, SARS will affect soybean import in the later period In some cities of 8yk, there will be a rush to buy commodities, which increases the short-term demand for oil in the market The government even uses the national reserves However, in the long run, due to the heavy losses of urban catering industry, the total oil demand will not increase, and may decrease; in addition, the government will control prices, so the soybean oil price will not rise in the later period 8yk SARS has a direct impact on animal husbandry The demand for soybean meal in feed industry will decline, and the price of soybean meal will fall In order to ensure the domestic soybean supply, the government will relax the restrictions on imported soybeans (through the rapid issuance of quality inspection certificates), so as to continue to import large quantities of soybeans to meet domestic demand However, the demand for soybeans will decrease when domestic crushing enterprises are bearish on the soybean meal and soybean oil market in the future Before 8YK, the government intended to control the import quantity of soybeans, while the soybean pressing enterprises blindly imported large quantities of soybeans; under the influence of SARS, I think the government will deliberately relax the restrictions on the import of soybeans, but under the pessimistic expectation for the future, the pressing enterprises will reduce the purchase of imported soybeans, unless the price of imported soybeans drops by a large margin Under this new situation, it is difficult for the relevant agencies to realize their expectation that the soybean import volume in 2002 / 2003 will be 16.5 million tons, or even 18 million tons In my opinion, China's soybean imports in 2002 / 03 were about 15 million tons 8yk 3 SARS will further delay the marking of agricultural genetically modified products According to the new genetically modified regulations released in June, the imported genetically modified products shall be marked accordingly: after the unloading of the genetically modified products, the importers shall affix the required labels on the products; in the process of transportation, processing, wholesale and retail, any change in packaging shall be marked again In order to reduce the cost and reduce the possible confusion, the Ministry of agriculture of China began to carry out the genetically modified mark inspection in Beijing in mid March, which will last until the end of April; by mid May, the Ministry of agriculture will carry out a nationwide mark inspection to track and monitor the implementation of the genetically modified mark This inspection mainly focused on soybean, soybean powder, soybean meal, soybean oil and other products All GM product importers, raw material processors, product wholesalers and retailers, seed companies and research institutions need to be inspected 8yk in many cases, processors, wholesalers and retailers will try their best to avoid labeling genetically modified products on their products Chinese consumers still believe that it is unsafe to eat genetically modified products, so once the genetically modified products are labeled, especially soybean oil, the demand for genetically modified soybean oil may decline, and ultimately reduce the demand for imported genetically modified soybeans In the case that domestic soybean can not meet domestic demand, it can only lead to a substantial increase in the price of domestic soybean and its products 8yk, especially in the case of severe impact of SARS on the market, if the government forces the identification, it will bring great fluctuations to the market 8yk is affected by SARS It is expected that the Ministry of agriculture will postpone or even cancel the safety inspection of agricultural genetically modified organisms nationwide in mid May At the same time, "agricultural genetically modified product identification" will continue to be postponed After the fear of SARS in the market gradually weakened and disappeared, the "agricultural genetically modified product logo" can be started, or even postponed for 1-2 years 8yk (Institute of Geosciences and resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences - Liu Aimin) 8yk 8yk