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At present, the new crown pneumonia epidemic is still developing, and many unfavorable factors such as the advancement of epidemic isolation, the stagnant flow of personnel, and the delayed resumption of work by enterprises are bound to have a greater impact on my country's industrial economy.
It is necessary to actively do a good job in relevant response work to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the industrial economy and ensure the smooth operation of the industrial economy throughout the year.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic will cause major disturbances in the operation of the industrial economy in 2020.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic will cause major disturbances in the operation of the industrial economy in 2020.
It will affect industrial production requires personnel, factors, logistics and other conditions, as well as comprehensive support for the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.
Support, the current development of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is bound to cause greater disturbance to the industrial economy.
Through the analysis of the impact of the 2003 SARS epidemic on the industrial economy, it can provide a certain reference for studying and judging the impact of the current epidemic on the trend of my country's industrial economy.
In 2003, the SARS epidemic broke out in the second quarter, causing the national industrial value-added growth rate (11.
1%) to drop by 2 percentage points from the first quarter (13.
1%).
In the third quarter of that year, the epidemic was lifted and the industrial value-added growth rate rose to 12.
8 %, further rising to 14% in the fourth quarter.
This shows that the SARS epidemic had a more obvious impact on the national industrial economy that year.
At present, the industrial structure of Wuhan, the hardest hit area of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and central provinces such as Hubei province, is similar to that of Beijing, the hardest hit area of SARS in 2003 (modern manufacturing is booming, and the secondary industry accounts for more than 40% of GDP), analysis " The impact of the SARS epidemic on the industrial economy of Beijing has a certain reference significance for predicting the impact of the epidemic on the industrial economy of Hubei Province and even the whole country.
Before the outbreak of the SARS epidemic in February 2003, the growth rate of Beijing’s industrial added value was as high as 17.
7%.
After the full outbreak in April, the growth rate dropped to 10.
2%, and in June fell to the lowest level of 6.
1% in the whole year, compared with February The drop was as high as 65%.
After the epidemic was lifted, the growth rate rebounded to 12% in July and continued to rise to 14% in August.
This shows that the epidemic will have a greater impact on the growth rate of industrial economy in key areas.
Based on the development of this new crown pneumonia epidemic, we have the following judgments .
Based on the development of this new crown pneumonia epidemic, we have the following judgmentsThe growth rate in the first quarter will show an obvious "stop rising and falling back", dragging down the annual industrial growth by about 2 percentage points.
The growth rate of industrial value added in the fourth quarter of 2019 reached 5.
9%, reversing the decline in the growth rate of the first two quarters in one fell swoop (the growth rate of industrial value added in the first three quarters of 2019 was 6.
1%, 5.
6%, and 5.
0%, respectively).
However, the sudden epidemic caused the stagnation of the flow of human factors and the weakening of social demand, which will inevitably interrupt the upward momentum of the industrial economy.
At present, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hubei, Chongqing and other provinces and cities have successively issued notices to postpone the resumption time of enterprises, which is one week longer than the Spring Festival holiday in previous years.
The above-mentioned provinces and cities are also my country's major industrial provinces, accounting for about 50% of the country's total industrial output value.
The one-week postponement of resuming work will seriously drag down the industrial economic growth in the first quarter.
The current epidemic is still in the process of continuous development.
It is expected that the growth rate of industrial added value in the first quarter will fall back to between 1% and 2%, and the possibility of zero or even negative growth is not even ruled out.
In addition, from the perspective of the calculation of value added by the production method, based on 52 weeks a year, a one-week delay in resuming work will cause the annual industrial economic growth rate to decline by about 2 percentage points.
The industrial economy is expected to rebound significantly in the second and third quarters.
From the macro background, China's economy was in an overall upward cycle in 2003, coupled with the continuous release of external market demand brought about by China's entry into the WTO, the annual economic growth rate reached 10%, opening a new round of double-digit high growth cycle.
In this context, the SARS outbreak that year still had a certain impact on industrial production and import and export.
For example, in Guangdong Province, where the SARS epidemic first occurred and a key region, the transaction value of the Canton Fair in April 2003 fell 74% year-on-year, and the transaction value of the Canton Fair in October rebounded sharply, an increase of 11% year-on-year.
The current COVID-19 epidemic is raging, referring to the characteristics of the impact of the SARS epidemic on industrial production, which will inevitably lead to a backlog of production orders.
After the epidemic is brought under control in the second quarter, relevant production activities will fully resume, and the growth rate of the industrial economy is expected to rebound significantly.
It is expected that the industrial added value growth rate will be about 6%.
Different industries will have different effects, and the medical supplies industry needs to be vigilant about overcapacity after the epidemic.
The current new crown pneumonia epidemic will have a differential impact on different industries.
On the one hand, due to the isolation of the epidemic and the stagnation of the flow of personnel elements, the suspension of relevant leading industries in the most severely affected areas (Hubei Province, especially Wuhan), such as optoelectronics and automobiles And parts industries.
However, since the above-mentioned industries in Hubei Province have a certain degree of industrial substitution at the national level, the overall impact on the industry will be relatively limited.
On the other hand, the current new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused an extreme shortage of epidemic prevention and control supplies such as masks, protective clothing, and goggles.
The medical supplies industry is speeding up the resumption of work and full production.
Related key enterprises have invested in new equipment to expand production to meet the current epidemic prevention needs.
However, we need to be vigilant.
The expansion of production brought about by the needs of epidemic prevention work during the special period may cause overcapacity after the epidemic.
The epidemic will have a greater impact on the industrial economy of key regions and will not be conducive to balanced regional development.
Wuhan, Hubei Province, the hardest hit by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, is the only sub-provincial city in the six central provinces of my country and an important industrial city and transportation hub in China.
The epidemic will have a serious impact on Wuhan and even Hubei's industrial economy.
Data shows that Wuhan has formed multiple 100-billion-level industrial clusters such as automobiles and parts, optoelectronics, and steel, and has 61 A-share listed companies.
The production of related companies is bound to be affected by the epidemic.
In addition, the central provinces such as Hunan, Henan, Jiangxi and Chongqing, which are adjacent to Hubei, and western provinces such as Chongqing, have close economic exchanges with Hubei Province, and the industrial economic development will also be affected by the epidemic to varying degrees.
Overall, it is not conducive to the rise of Central China.
Balanced regional development.
Countermeasures and suggestions for the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on China's industrial economy The countermeasures and suggestions for the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on China's industrial economy take epidemic prevention and control as the primary task, and further adjust the "steady growth" expectations.
In recent years, the situation at home and abroad is complex and changeable.
my country’s economic growth is under great downward pressure, and the overall growth is at a low-to-medium rate.
The sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic is bound to have a greater impact on doing well in this year’s “steady growth” work.
In addition, in recent years, my country’s urbanization rate has continued to increase, and a new transportation network system represented by high-speed rail has been built.
The proportion of economic activities that require national collaboration and exchanges has continued to expand.
The role has become more prominent, and the related economic damage will be more serious when encountering epidemic disasters that hinder collaboration and flow.
The current is a critical period for the fight against the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
The necessary isolation measures will inevitably affect the development of the industrial economy.
However, winning the fight against the epidemic is the primary task, and it is also for the better and faster full recovery of production.
We suggest that the expected industrial economic growth in the first quarter can be reasonably reduced, allowing the growth rate of industrial added value to fall back to the 0-2% range.
Expectations for industrial economic growth throughout the year should also be appropriately reduced, allowing the growth rate of industrial added value to remain within the range of 4% to 5%.
Do a good job in preparations for production recovery after the epidemic is controlled, and effectively reduce the burden on related enterprises.
It is expected that after the epidemic is controlled in the second quarter, the production of relevant enterprises will fully resume, and some industries will experience explosive rebound growth.
It is necessary to do a good job in advance of resource allocation such as production materials and personnel recruitment.
For example, in order to ensure the production of medical materials for the prevention and control of the epidemic, relevant companies adjusted the production lines of alcohol, gauze and other materials to medical production standards.
After the epidemic is controlled, it will inevitably have a certain impact on normal production and operations.
jobs.
In addition, the epidemic has had a greater impact on the production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises in Hubei Province and other provinces.
It has caused thorny issues such as capital operation, sharp decline in orders, and poor transportation of materials.
It is necessary to quickly reduce taxes and fees, financial support, and financial support.
Support and other aspects to carry out related SMEs burden reduction work.
Establish and improve the national strategic reserve system of medical supplies as soon as possible.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic has fully exposed the problem of insufficient medical supplies in my country.
We should learn from the National Pharmaceutical Reserve Program (NPS) of the United States to establish and improve my country's national strategic reserve system for medical supplies as soon as possible.
The U.
S.
National Drug Reserve Program was established in 1999 and is jointly managed by the U.
S.
Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Health and Social Welfare.
It aims to make up for the insufficient supply of medical and health resources in response to major public health emergencies by states and localities.
Succeeded in providing emergency medical supplies for the September 11 incident, the anthrax incident, Katrina Hurricane, and the influenza pandemic.
According to the recommendations of government agencies and experts, the plan stores necessary medical supplies in multiple strategic reserves across the United States and ensures that related supplies are updated in a timely manner.
The quantity of supplies can meet the emergency needs of several large cities at the same time.
It is recommended that relevant departments (National Health Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Emergency Management, etc.
) study and establish a national strategic reserve system for medical materials as soon as possible, formulate a reasonable system for material production, purchase, storage, distribution and use, and effectively absorb and digest the expansion of the medical material industry.
The resulting overcapacity phenomenon.
Actively do a good job in the restoration of industrial production in Hubei and other provinces.
Most of the provinces affected by the epidemic this time are in the central provinces.
Although more outstanding achievements have been made in industrial development in recent years, there is still a big gap between the industrial base and the developed eastern provinces.
After the epidemic is controlled, the eastern provinces should be actively guided to carry out industrial production assistance work for Hubei and other central provinces, and targeted measures should be introduced in the supply of raw materials, personnel recruitment and training, technical exchanges and cooperation, etc.
, to help central provinces such as Hubei to eliminate the epidemic as soon as possible.
The negative impact of economic development.
It is necessary to actively do a good job in relevant response work to minimize the impact of the epidemic on the industrial economy and ensure the smooth operation of the industrial economy throughout the year.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic will cause major disturbances in the operation of the industrial economy in 2020.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic will cause major disturbances in the operation of the industrial economy in 2020.
It will affect industrial production requires personnel, factors, logistics and other conditions, as well as comprehensive support for the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain.
Support, the current development of the new crown pneumonia epidemic is bound to cause greater disturbance to the industrial economy.
Through the analysis of the impact of the 2003 SARS epidemic on the industrial economy, it can provide a certain reference for studying and judging the impact of the current epidemic on the trend of my country's industrial economy.
In 2003, the SARS epidemic broke out in the second quarter, causing the national industrial value-added growth rate (11.
1%) to drop by 2 percentage points from the first quarter (13.
1%).
In the third quarter of that year, the epidemic was lifted and the industrial value-added growth rate rose to 12.
8 %, further rising to 14% in the fourth quarter.
This shows that the SARS epidemic had a more obvious impact on the national industrial economy that year.
At present, the industrial structure of Wuhan, the hardest hit area of the new crown pneumonia epidemic and central provinces such as Hubei province, is similar to that of Beijing, the hardest hit area of SARS in 2003 (modern manufacturing is booming, and the secondary industry accounts for more than 40% of GDP), analysis " The impact of the SARS epidemic on the industrial economy of Beijing has a certain reference significance for predicting the impact of the epidemic on the industrial economy of Hubei Province and even the whole country.
Before the outbreak of the SARS epidemic in February 2003, the growth rate of Beijing’s industrial added value was as high as 17.
7%.
After the full outbreak in April, the growth rate dropped to 10.
2%, and in June fell to the lowest level of 6.
1% in the whole year, compared with February The drop was as high as 65%.
After the epidemic was lifted, the growth rate rebounded to 12% in July and continued to rise to 14% in August.
This shows that the epidemic will have a greater impact on the growth rate of industrial economy in key areas.
Based on the development of this new crown pneumonia epidemic, we have the following judgments .
Based on the development of this new crown pneumonia epidemic, we have the following judgmentsThe growth rate in the first quarter will show an obvious "stop rising and falling back", dragging down the annual industrial growth by about 2 percentage points.
The growth rate of industrial value added in the fourth quarter of 2019 reached 5.
9%, reversing the decline in the growth rate of the first two quarters in one fell swoop (the growth rate of industrial value added in the first three quarters of 2019 was 6.
1%, 5.
6%, and 5.
0%, respectively).
However, the sudden epidemic caused the stagnation of the flow of human factors and the weakening of social demand, which will inevitably interrupt the upward momentum of the industrial economy.
At present, Shanghai, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shandong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Hubei, Chongqing and other provinces and cities have successively issued notices to postpone the resumption time of enterprises, which is one week longer than the Spring Festival holiday in previous years.
The above-mentioned provinces and cities are also my country's major industrial provinces, accounting for about 50% of the country's total industrial output value.
The one-week postponement of resuming work will seriously drag down the industrial economic growth in the first quarter.
The current epidemic is still in the process of continuous development.
It is expected that the growth rate of industrial added value in the first quarter will fall back to between 1% and 2%, and the possibility of zero or even negative growth is not even ruled out.
In addition, from the perspective of the calculation of value added by the production method, based on 52 weeks a year, a one-week delay in resuming work will cause the annual industrial economic growth rate to decline by about 2 percentage points.
The industrial economy is expected to rebound significantly in the second and third quarters.
From the macro background, China's economy was in an overall upward cycle in 2003, coupled with the continuous release of external market demand brought about by China's entry into the WTO, the annual economic growth rate reached 10%, opening a new round of double-digit high growth cycle.
In this context, the SARS outbreak that year still had a certain impact on industrial production and import and export.
For example, in Guangdong Province, where the SARS epidemic first occurred and a key region, the transaction value of the Canton Fair in April 2003 fell 74% year-on-year, and the transaction value of the Canton Fair in October rebounded sharply, an increase of 11% year-on-year.
The current COVID-19 epidemic is raging, referring to the characteristics of the impact of the SARS epidemic on industrial production, which will inevitably lead to a backlog of production orders.
After the epidemic is brought under control in the second quarter, relevant production activities will fully resume, and the growth rate of the industrial economy is expected to rebound significantly.
It is expected that the industrial added value growth rate will be about 6%.
Different industries will have different effects, and the medical supplies industry needs to be vigilant about overcapacity after the epidemic.
The current new crown pneumonia epidemic will have a differential impact on different industries.
On the one hand, due to the isolation of the epidemic and the stagnation of the flow of personnel elements, the suspension of relevant leading industries in the most severely affected areas (Hubei Province, especially Wuhan), such as optoelectronics and automobiles And parts industries.
However, since the above-mentioned industries in Hubei Province have a certain degree of industrial substitution at the national level, the overall impact on the industry will be relatively limited.
On the other hand, the current new crown pneumonia epidemic has caused an extreme shortage of epidemic prevention and control supplies such as masks, protective clothing, and goggles.
The medical supplies industry is speeding up the resumption of work and full production.
Related key enterprises have invested in new equipment to expand production to meet the current epidemic prevention needs.
However, we need to be vigilant.
The expansion of production brought about by the needs of epidemic prevention work during the special period may cause overcapacity after the epidemic.
The epidemic will have a greater impact on the industrial economy of key regions and will not be conducive to balanced regional development.
Wuhan, Hubei Province, the hardest hit by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, is the only sub-provincial city in the six central provinces of my country and an important industrial city and transportation hub in China.
The epidemic will have a serious impact on Wuhan and even Hubei's industrial economy.
Data shows that Wuhan has formed multiple 100-billion-level industrial clusters such as automobiles and parts, optoelectronics, and steel, and has 61 A-share listed companies.
The production of related companies is bound to be affected by the epidemic.
In addition, the central provinces such as Hunan, Henan, Jiangxi and Chongqing, which are adjacent to Hubei, and western provinces such as Chongqing, have close economic exchanges with Hubei Province, and the industrial economic development will also be affected by the epidemic to varying degrees.
Overall, it is not conducive to the rise of Central China.
Balanced regional development.
Countermeasures and suggestions for the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on China's industrial economy The countermeasures and suggestions for the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic on China's industrial economy take epidemic prevention and control as the primary task, and further adjust the "steady growth" expectations.
In recent years, the situation at home and abroad is complex and changeable.
my country’s economic growth is under great downward pressure, and the overall growth is at a low-to-medium rate.
The sudden new crown pneumonia epidemic is bound to have a greater impact on doing well in this year’s “steady growth” work.
In addition, in recent years, my country’s urbanization rate has continued to increase, and a new transportation network system represented by high-speed rail has been built.
The proportion of economic activities that require national collaboration and exchanges has continued to expand.
The role has become more prominent, and the related economic damage will be more serious when encountering epidemic disasters that hinder collaboration and flow.
The current is a critical period for the fight against the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
The necessary isolation measures will inevitably affect the development of the industrial economy.
However, winning the fight against the epidemic is the primary task, and it is also for the better and faster full recovery of production.
We suggest that the expected industrial economic growth in the first quarter can be reasonably reduced, allowing the growth rate of industrial added value to fall back to the 0-2% range.
Expectations for industrial economic growth throughout the year should also be appropriately reduced, allowing the growth rate of industrial added value to remain within the range of 4% to 5%.
Do a good job in preparations for production recovery after the epidemic is controlled, and effectively reduce the burden on related enterprises.
It is expected that after the epidemic is controlled in the second quarter, the production of relevant enterprises will fully resume, and some industries will experience explosive rebound growth.
It is necessary to do a good job in advance of resource allocation such as production materials and personnel recruitment.
For example, in order to ensure the production of medical materials for the prevention and control of the epidemic, relevant companies adjusted the production lines of alcohol, gauze and other materials to medical production standards.
After the epidemic is controlled, it will inevitably have a certain impact on normal production and operations.
jobs.
In addition, the epidemic has had a greater impact on the production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises in Hubei Province and other provinces.
It has caused thorny issues such as capital operation, sharp decline in orders, and poor transportation of materials.
It is necessary to quickly reduce taxes and fees, financial support, and financial support.
Support and other aspects to carry out related SMEs burden reduction work.
Establish and improve the national strategic reserve system of medical supplies as soon as possible.
The new crown pneumonia epidemic has fully exposed the problem of insufficient medical supplies in my country.
We should learn from the National Pharmaceutical Reserve Program (NPS) of the United States to establish and improve my country's national strategic reserve system for medical supplies as soon as possible.
The U.
S.
National Drug Reserve Program was established in 1999 and is jointly managed by the U.
S.
Department of Homeland Security and the Department of Health and Social Welfare.
It aims to make up for the insufficient supply of medical and health resources in response to major public health emergencies by states and localities.
Succeeded in providing emergency medical supplies for the September 11 incident, the anthrax incident, Katrina Hurricane, and the influenza pandemic.
According to the recommendations of government agencies and experts, the plan stores necessary medical supplies in multiple strategic reserves across the United States and ensures that related supplies are updated in a timely manner.
The quantity of supplies can meet the emergency needs of several large cities at the same time.
It is recommended that relevant departments (National Health Commission, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Emergency Management, etc.
) study and establish a national strategic reserve system for medical materials as soon as possible, formulate a reasonable system for material production, purchase, storage, distribution and use, and effectively absorb and digest the expansion of the medical material industry.
The resulting overcapacity phenomenon.
Actively do a good job in the restoration of industrial production in Hubei and other provinces.
Most of the provinces affected by the epidemic this time are in the central provinces.
Although more outstanding achievements have been made in industrial development in recent years, there is still a big gap between the industrial base and the developed eastern provinces.
After the epidemic is controlled, the eastern provinces should be actively guided to carry out industrial production assistance work for Hubei and other central provinces, and targeted measures should be introduced in the supply of raw materials, personnel recruitment and training, technical exchanges and cooperation, etc.
, to help central provinces such as Hubei to eliminate the epidemic as soon as possible.
The negative impact of economic development.
