Industry "earthquake"!

Recently, the global situation has been in a state of tension
.

01 Global embargo, or increase the tension of raw materials

According to the Russian Satellite News Agency, the G7 countries said in a statement that they are considering a global embargo of Russian oil and petroleum products, unless some purchase prices are equal to or lower than those negotiated with international partners
.

As soon as the news came out, there was a heated discussion in the market
.
A global ban on Russian oil and its products will exacerbate the already tight supply of raw materials, and even lead countries that rely on imported energy, such as the European Union, to face the risk of soaring unemployment and industrial collapse
.

The previous natural gas force majeure forced EU member states to cut gas use by 15% between August 1, 2022 and March 31, 2023
.
If the global embargo on crude oil and its products will cause many companies around the world to run out of stock and stop production, chemical raw materials may once again climb to a historically high level
.
Earlier, Germany reported that about 32% of energy-intensive companies had been forced to cut production in full or in part
.

02 Collective announcements rose, giants rose more than 6,800 yuan

As we all know, the crude oil industry chain is very involved, and once the ban is issued, it may cause an "earthquake" in the entire chemical industry chain
.

Entering August, raw materials such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate continued to rise
.
Manufacturers such as Dow and Cabot have also issued notices of price increases, and chemical raw materials have been increased by up to 6,840 yuan / ton
.

From August 1st, Yuntianhua Group will increase the price of all grades of Yuntianhua polyoxymethylene (POM) products by 500 yuan/ton
.

On August 2, the price of all POM products of Yankuang Luhua was raised by 500 yuan/ton, and it is planned to continue to increase on August 16
.

From August 5th, Japan DIC Co.
, Ltd.
will increase the starting price of epoxy plasticizers.
The specific increase is that epoxy linseed oil will rise by more than 75 yen/kg (about 3735 yuan/ton); other epoxy resins will increase.
The plasticizer rose by more than 34 yen/kg (about 1693 yuan/ton)
.

From September 1st, the well-known Japanese plastic company Electrochemical Company will raise the price of neoprene "Denka chloroprene"
.
The specific increase is that the domestic market rose by more than 65 yen/kg (3237 yuan/ton); the export market rose by more than 500 US dollars/ton (3373 yuan/ton), and the export market rose by more than 450 euros/ton (3101 yuan/ton)
.

The upstream price increase has been transmitted to the downstream, and the automobile industry chain has once again raised prices collectively due to the increase in upstream raw material prices and the shortage of chips
.
The price increase information of some car companies is as follows:

On August 1, smart China announced that due to the increase in global raw material prices, the price of the new smart #1 Premium configuration model will be increased by 5,800 yuan from August 3
.

On July 31st, Leapmotor issued a statement: Affected by factors such as the increase in upstream raw material prices, Leapmotor will adjust the official guide price after subsidies for all T03 models from August 1st.
At present, the price increase rate of each model is In 5600 yuan -6600 yuan
.

On July 27, Nezha Automobile announced that the price of all U-series models will be increased by 6,000 yuan
.

03Inflation intensifies, and raw material market prices may be artificially high in late August

The current international situation is complicated
.
With the escalation of sanctions against Russia by Europe and the United States, international crude oil continues to hover at a high level, and central banks of various countries continue to raise interest rates, global inflation is gradually increasing
.

It is expected that in the second half of the year, global oil inventories will be low, and the OPEC+ production increase will be less than expected, and the remaining capacity will be tight, and the supply and demand of crude oil will tend to balance
.
If the G7 insists on imposing a "global ban" on Russia, the probability of crude oil rising will increase
.
At that time, the products related to the oil industry chain may be warmed up, but the downstream demand is still in a sluggish state, and the price is expected to be inflated
.

04 Take countermeasures, these chemicals may rise

Since Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, the Chinese mainland has carried out a thunderous countermeasure: the People's Liberation Army has conducted military exercises around the island for three consecutive days, practicing "blockade of Taiwan Island"; banning the export of natural sand to Taiwan; stopping the import of products from more than 100 Taiwanese food manufacturers.
.
.
Economic and military fields are covered
.

It is understood that Taiwan is an important import and export trade area for the petrochemical industry in the world.
In 2020, the import trade volume of the petrochemical industry in Taiwan will reach 48.
94 billion US dollars, ranking 16th in the world, and the export trade volume will reach 36.
63 billion US dollars, ranking 22nd in the world.

.
Among them, the total export trade volume of the chemical industry is 29.
33 billion US dollars, accounting for 80% of the total trade volume of Taiwan's petrochemical industry
.

In 2020, the top five export destinations of the petrochemical industry in Taiwan are China (34%), Vietnam (7.
1%), the United States (6.
6%), Japan (6.
2%), and South Korea (5.
5%).
China is the most important for Taiwan.
export destination of chemical products
.

As an important import source of chemical products in mainland China, Taiwan ranks high in the proportion of imports of propylene, polypropylene, PVC, ethylene glycol, PX, PTA, styrene and other products
.
Especially in the field of ethylene glycol and PX, China still relies heavily on imports, and Taiwan is one of the main sources of imports.
Taiwan's imports account for 5.
15% and 3.
63% of the mainland's total supply, respectively, which is an important part of the mainland's supply of goods.
ring
.

In the field of PTA and PVC, mainland China has sufficient production capacity, and its external dependence is low, only 0.
15% and 1.
84%.
However, the supply of goods from Taiwan continues to be imported to the mainland every year, accounting for 71.
16% and 50.
8% of the total imports respectively.

.
In the fields of propylene, polypropylene and styrene, imports from Taiwan also play a key role in the balance of supply and demand in the mainland
.

If the supply from Taiwan cannot enter the mainland due to some factors, the prices of these chemicals may rise due to the lack of supply from other regions
.

In 2021, the mainland will produce 42.
97 million tons of propylene and import 2.
49 million tons, of which Taiwan will import 500,000 tons, accounting for 20%, accounting for 1.
1% of the total supply in the mainland
.

In 2021, the mainland will produce 28.
22 million tons of polypropylene and import 3.
18 million tons, of which Taiwan will import 260,000 tons, accounting for 8%, accounting for 0.
82% of the total supply
.

In 2021, the mainland will produce 21.
3 million tons of PVC and import 400,000 tons, of which Taiwan will import 200,000 tons, accounting for 50.
8%, accounting for 0.
93% of the total supply in the mainland
.

In 2021, the mainland will produce 12.
2 million tons of ethylene glycol and import 8.
43 million tons, of which Taiwan will import 1.
06 million tons, accounting for 12.
6%, accounting for 5.
15% of the total domestic supply
.

In 2021, the mainland will produce 21.
32 million tons of PX and import 13.
65 million tons, of which Taiwan will import 1.
27 million tons, accounting for 9.
3%, accounting for 3.
63% of the total supply in the mainland
.

In 2021, the mainland will produce 52.
68 million tons of PTA and import 79,000 tons, of which Taiwan will import 56,000 tons, accounting for 71%, accounting for 0.
11% of the total supply in the mainland
.

In 2021, the mainland will produce 12.
54 million tons of styrene and import 1.
69 million tons, of which Taiwan will import 270,000 tons, accounting for 15.
7%, accounting for 1.
86% of the total supply in the mainland
.