Industry | China Housing Research: Looking at the direction of real estate development in 2020 from five aspects

With the ringing of the 2020 New Year bell, the peak period of China's real estate industry development from 2010 to 2019 has passed.
In the past ten years, the real estate market has undergone several adjustments, the scale of the industry has increased rapidly, and the living standards of the people have greatly improved.
Real estate has contributed to it, but at the same time, real estate has also suffered huge controversies.
At the annual press conference of Ding Zuyu's review of the real estate market held on December 31, 2019, Dr.
Ding Zuyu predicted that the volume of China's real estate in the next ten years will still be quite huge.
So in 2020, what will happen to the real estate market? Participants will analyze in detail from multiple perspectives such as policy, capital, demand, products, supply, investment, and market operation during this period.
Table 1: E-House Group CEO Mr.
Ding Zuyu’s top ten predictions on the property market in 2020.
Source: "Ding Zuyu's Evaluation of the Property Market in the 4th Year of the New Year’s Eve Press Conference".
The Evaluation Research Center of China Housing Research Association collates views from all parties.
Zhou Xin, chairman of the board of directors of E-House Holdings, believes that in the era of large-scale development, construction is prosperous; in the era of real estate, prosperity is guarded.
The real estate development has not yet ended, and the peak of the industry scale is still sustainable for 10 years; the second half of the real estate has just begun, and now is a good time to make arrangements in advance.
The development of the real estate era is divided into five dimensions: the first is large property management, the second is large asset management, the third is large lease and sale, the fourth is urban renewal, and the fifth is real estate+.
Zhang Yongyue, president of Shanghai E-House Real Estate Research Institute, believes that China's housing has basically reached the level of a well-off society in an all-round way, but there are also inadequate and unbalanced characteristics that need to be treated rationally.
The real estate market will still have a huge space for development in the future.
It is an important industry that is indispensable in the process of achieving the second centenary goal, including urban agglomerations and metropolitan areas, which will become new development highlights; however, the requirements for real estate development are higher, and the industry must Putting high-quality development in the first place, real estate companies need to improve their professional standards to meet the challenges brought about by market changes.
Sun Hongbin, chairman of Sunac Group, believes that the scale of the real estate industry this year is about 16 trillion yuan, and this scale will probably remain for many years.
One is the demand for urbanization.
Because the current population and urbanization rate of China's real estate is 53.
77%, which is far lower than the average level of 80% in developed countries.
The other is the need for improvement.
Among the 10 friends of each person, there are definitely 5 people who want to improve the house swap.
You can live without swapping, but you all want to change.
Therefore, the scale of this industry is estimated to remain for many years.
Yao Jingyuan, the former chief economist of the National Bureau of Statistics, believes that the latest demographic data shows that we had 2 million fewer newborns than the year before last year.
On the other hand, the number of elderly people over 60 increased by 8.
59 million.
Reflected in the economy, labor costs have risen sharply, which will cause some of the original growth methods to be unsustainable.
It can be seen from the same reason that with the rapid decline in the total population and the decrease in the demand for buying houses, the factors supporting the rise in housing prices are "disappearing", and the fallacy that housing prices will only rise but not fall will eventually be dispelled.
Ren Zeping, Dean of the Research Institute of Evergrande Group, believes that in 2020, the real estate policy will return to neutral stability from excessive tightening, and the central government’s setting is "three stability.
" It is time to change time for a country.
On the one hand, it is necessary to prevent currency release from stimulating asset bubbles, and on the other hand, it is necessary to prevent excessive tightening and proactive piercing from causing major financial risks.
Excessive containment of reasonable real estate financing not only aggravates the economic downturn, but also aggravates economic and financial risks.
Half of the real estate is finance, half of the real economy, and manufacturing.
The upstream and downstream industry chain driven by it is longer.
It is necessary to promote reforms to give more play to the functions of the real economy and return to residential and manufacturing attributes.
Stabilizing land prices, housing prices, and expectations, using time windows to promote housing system reforms and long-term mechanisms, the key is to link financial stability with people and land, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
Pacific Securities issued a research report that, from the perspective of transaction volume, 2019 may be the historical peak of the new housing market, and the steady decline in volume and price in the next few years will be the general trend.
In the past three or four years, new house transactions have exceeded expectations year after year.
In addition to the catalyst role of the monetization of the shed reform, the main force of transactions is actually the overdraft of future urbanization needs (county cities migrate to prefecture-level cities, prefecture-level cities migrate to provincial capitals, and old urban areas migrate.
To the new city).
In the future, the demand for new houses will slowly return to the central level of about 1.
1 to 1.
2 billion square meters per year.
Nie Meisheng, the founding chairman of the All-Union Real Estate Chamber of Commerce, believes that coins have pros and cons.
Real estate in 2020 will have "risks" and "opportunities.
" Data in the first three quarters of this year shows that real estate is still a positive pull on GDP.
But real estate also has its "dangerous" side.
With declining investment, rising asset-liability ratios, and the inability of companies to stand up, real estate is facing unprecedented challenges.
Although 2019 is a critical point for the real estate industry, it does not mean that the critical point is passed.
Real estate must decline and collapse.
Chen Huai, director of the Urban and Rural Construction Economics Department of the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that judging whether there are enough houses in China in 2020 or a longer historical cycle, whether there are any prospects for this industry, and the most important thing is whether there are prospects for real estate and whether it can go.
How far is it necessary to build a house.
No policy, market, and capital are the first.
The first is the people of China who want to live a good life.
The real estate industry is not as disgusting and hateful as we imagined and described by many media.
In fact, the real estate industry has greatly changed our society and value orientation for more than 40 years.
We must tell the people that acquiring and accumulating assets is a good thing, but while owning assets and acquiring asset income, we must bear asset risks, pay attention to our risk tolerance, and allocate and optimize our own resources.
China Housing Analysis China Housing Analysis Policy: Adhere to the main tone of "housing to live without speculation", differentiated implementation of " policies by city" policy end: adhere to the main theme of "housing, not speculation", and differentiated implementation of "policies for different cities" In 2019, China’s real estate policy environment is tight, and the control efforts will not be relaxed.
In 2020, the central government will continue to insist on “no speculation in housing” and “not using real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the Chinese economy”, and gradually improve the long-term real estate management mechanism.
As the main tone of real estate market regulation.
On top of this, in response to the differentiated real estate market conditions in different regions and the needs of different types of home buyers, all regions will follow the basic principle of "policies in accordance with the city" and regulate their own conditions by "cooling of overheating and stimulating of overcooling".
In this way, appropriate policy adjustments should be made to the problems that appear at this stage, two-way adjustments should be implemented, and the development of the real estate market can be steadily promoted.
At the beginning of the new decade, the signals sent by the Central Economic Conference and the Housing and Urban-Rural Construction Work Conference have laid the policy tone for the long-term stabilization of the real estate industry.
Maintaining the "three stability" will be the top priority of the real estate market in 2020.
Specifically, "stability" has two meanings: on the one hand, it is to prevent prices from rising again irrationally.
The government will adhere to the positioning of "housing to live without speculation" and resolutely not use real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy.
Some housing prices and land prices are too fast.
Cities with rising prices and low inventories have stepped up regulation and strengthened measures of “purchase restrictions,” “price restrictions,” and “restricted sales”; on the other hand, to prevent market stall adjustments, real estate is still the “ballast stone” of economic development.
Cities with excessive investment and sales pressure relax their pre-excessive policies and choose "relaxed settlement" and other policies for optimization.
This is the process of market balance.
In short, city-specific policies and two-way regulation will still be the main features of the real estate regulation policy in 2020.
Funding side: the financial supervision will not be relaxed, the central bank’s RRR cut may increase the activity of the real estate market.
The financial side: financial supervision will not be relaxed, the central bank’s RRR cut may increase the activity of the real estate market.
In 2019, the real estate industry’s financing channels will shrink, and the difficulty of corporate financing will increase.
Real estate development companies with high leverage and fast turnover can be described as drawing salaries from the bottom.
Most companies are not willing to acquire land and are very cautious throughout the year, and they continue to increase their efforts to remove funds and return funds.
Looking ahead to 2020, financial supervision will maintain strict standards.
On January 6, the central bank announced a 0.
5% reduction in the RRR, which fully demonstrates that the monetary policy must remain flexible and appropriate this year, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, stimulate the vitality of market entities, and create a suitable monetary and financial environment for high-quality development and supply-side structural reforms.
For real estate companies, the central bank’s move is conducive to increasing the amount of market funds, but expectations should not be too high, and the strong financial supervision on real estate has not been relaxed.
Demand side: The main force of house buyers is constrained by changes in the demographic structure, and the demand structure is more optimized due to "relaxed settlement".
Demand end: The main force of house buyers is constrained by changes in the demographic structure, and the demand structure is more optimized due to "relaxed settlement".
In the ten years from 2020 to 2029, both the population and the demand for housing purchase will undergo tremendous changes compared with the previous ten years.
Mr.
Ding Zuyu predicts that the number of new-borns in 2020-2029 will decrease by 42 million compared with the past ten years, and the overall population will show a negative growth trend.
At the same time, the number of married people will drop by 28.
3% from 2020 to 2029.
The demographic structure has changed, and the number of married people has declined, directly leading to a decline in the population of the main buyers.
In the next ten years, the main population of home buyers will decrease by 61 million.
From the perspective of housing demand structure, the relaxation of settlement conditions has accelerated the flow of urban population and promoted the development of urbanization.
"Demand can be redistributed in regional space and industry retains people" has become the main keynote of the future.
The overall demand structure of China's property market has been further optimized, and the overall market will progress steadily and develop steadily.
Product end: The real estate market returns to rationality, and flow-based and improved products will become the main market products.
Product end: The real estate market returns to rationality, and flow-based and improved products will become the main market.
Under the general environment of stabilization of the real estate market, the demand for house purchases declines.
, The supply may drop.
From 2020 to 2029, market demand will change.
Real estate development companies should also make adjustments on the supply side, focusing on the product itself.
Market demand and corporate supply in cities of different energy levels will be differentiated, and product structure changes will be more consistent, and the overall trend will be flow-based products.
Downfall, traffic-based and improved products accounted for the dominant market position, while the proportion of high-end products in transactions fell significantly.
Looking forward to 2020, the real estate market will return to rationality, and market supply will inevitably decrease as demand drops.
Under the policy guidance of "houses are used to live", product design positioning will also converge with market demand, and future flow-based and improved products will be the main product types.
Investment side: Sales may show a downward trend, and the investment side needs to continue to be cautious.
Investment side: Sales may show a downward trend, and the investment side needs to continue a cautious attitude.
In 2019, the property market will continue to move forward under downward pressure, and new home sales in core cities will be stable, While the volume of third- and fourth-tier cities still exists, the overall industry scale has increased slightly compared with 2018.
With the current policy regulation not loosening and the financial environment becoming tighter, the growth rate of general development investment of real estate enterprises has slowed down, and the willingness to start new construction is low.
It is expected that in 2020, the overall transaction volume will show a slight decline, but under the basic policy of “policy by city”, cities of different energy levels are showing a trend of differentiation: the sales scale of core first- and second-tier cities is still expected to remain stable or grow slightly, mainly due to the overall The fundamentals are good.
The net influx of population has created a huge base of local buyers, and the support of industrial economy has gradually increased the purchasing power of residents.
The market in the Midwest and some underdeveloped third- and fourth-tier cities will face severe tests.
As the destocking policy gradually fades, At the same time, after real estate companies have stimulated the market in third- and fourth-tier cities in the past few years, the staged purchasing power has reached its limit.
In addition, during the shifting period of the economy, high-speed growth has turned to medium and high-speed growth, and the downward pressure on the economy will directly affect third- and fourth-tier cities.
Therefore, the third- and fourth-tier real estate market will show a downturn for a period of time in the future.
In addition, the prospects for disinvestment are not optimistic, and investment in land acquisition needs to be more cautious.
Looking at the current market cycle, there is a high probability that the prefecture and property markets will continue to cool down.
In 2020, the investment attitude of real estate companies may continue to be conservative for the past two years.
Most companies hold a rational and cautious attitude, and even some companies stop acquiring land.
continue.