Industry | 2019 China Auto Market Operation Analysis

1.
The operation of China's auto market in 2019 1.
The operation of China's auto market in 2019 (1) The sales of new cars in China's auto market have dropped across the board.
In 2019, affected by the macroeconomic downturn, continued Sino-US trade frictions, insufficient consumer confidence, and China VI emissions Due to the early implementation of standards and the sharp decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles, China's auto market demand has been sluggish, with negative growth for 18 consecutive months.
From the perspective of the trend during the year, with the active adjustment and active response of manufacturers, and the arrival of the traditional consumption peak season in the fourth quarter, the auto market in the second half of the year showed strong self-recovery ability, but the whole year still ended with negative growth, with new car sales of 25.
769 million.
Vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 8.
2%, an increase of 5.
4 percentage points over the same period.
Among them, passenger vehicle sales were 21.
44 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.
6%; commercial vehicle sales were 4.
324 million, a year-on-year decrease of 1.
1%.
The decline in passenger cars has become the main reason for the overall market decline in 2019.
(See Chart 1) In 2019, the pressure on China's auto industry has further increased.
From the perspective of monthly sales growth, in 2019, there was a continuous negative growth in each month.
The decline in the first half of the year was more pronounced, and the decline in the second half of the year was due to the same period in 2018.
Lower and gradually improved.
Sales in December fell slightly by 0.
1%, which was basically the same as the same period.
(2) The annual decline of the passenger car market was higher than that of the overall market.
The total sales of passenger cars for the whole year of 2019 was 21.
44 million, a year-on-year decrease of 9.
6%, which was higher than the overall market decline.
Among them, car sales were 10.
308 million units, down 10.
7% year-on-year; SUV sales were 9.
353 million units, down 6.
3% year-on-year; MPV sales were 1.
384 million units, down 20.
2% year-on-year; cross-type sales were 400,000 units, down 11.
7% year-on-year.
From the perspective of the market share of sedans and SUVs, the market share of sedans in 2019 decreased by 1.
9% compared with last year; the market share of SUVs in 2019 increased by 3.
1% compared with last year.
It can be seen that although the sales of the passenger car market in 2019 are not good, the popularity of SUVs is still there, and consumer preferences have not changed significantly.
(3) The commercial vehicle market has declined throughout the year, but the monthly trend is high at both ends and low at the middleIn 2019, due to the rebound in infrastructure investment, the elimination of National III vehicles, the rapid development of new energy logistics vehicles, and the tightening of regulations, the sales of commercial vehicles were better than passenger vehicles.
The sales of commercial vehicles were 4.
324 million, and sales fell by 1.
1.
%.
In terms of vehicle types, sales of passenger cars were 474,000, a year-on-year decrease of 2.
2%; sales of trucks were 3.
85 million, a year-on-year decrease of 0.
9%.
Among them, sales of heavy trucks were 1.
174 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.
3%, which was better than other models.
(4) The new energy vehicle market suspends high growth or enters an adjustment period.
In 2019, new energy vehicle sales were 1.
206 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 4%.
Among them, the sales of pure electric vehicles were 972,000, a year-on-year decrease of 1.
2%; the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 232,000, a year-on-year decrease of 14.
5%; and the sales of fuel cell vehicles were 2,737, a year-on-year increase of 79.
2%.
The decline in sales of new energy vehicles was mainly affected by the decline in subsidies, which showed a sharp decline in the second half of the year.
At the same time, with the gradual saturation of the needs of major corporate travel companies, new high demand points in the new energy vehicle market have not yet appeared.
(See Chart 2) In terms of new car-making forces, among the more than 300 new car-making forces in 2019, only 12 car companies such as Weilai, Weimar, Xiaopeng, and Lingpao achieved deliveries, but only 4 companies The delivery volume exceeds 10,000, including 20,565 Weilai Automobiles, 16,876 Weimar Automobiles, 16,608 Xiaopeng Automobiles, and 10,006 Hezhong Automobiles.
Under multiple difficulties such as the inability to deliver the existing cars, the shortage of funds, the decline in subsidies, and the crisis of confidence, new car-building forces may undergo major changes, and most companies are facing a bankruptcy crisis.
At the same time, Tesla Motors is domestically produced and the first batch of model 3 has been officially delivered, and the price has dropped to within 300,000 yuan.
If its planned year-end localization rate of 80% is realized, the cost will drop again.
Chinese brand new energy vehicles will face severe challenges.
(5) The auto consumption upgrade is still continuing, not affected by the overall poor consumption environment.
From the analysis of sales data, the overall downturn in China's auto market in 2019 is mainly reflected in the loss of consumption of low-end economic models, while high-end luxury cars The demand for cars has not been affected and has continued to grow.
(See Chart 3)2.
China's auto market has been affected by multiple effects, leading to a decline in car sales.
2.
China's auto market has been affected by multiple effects, resulting in a decline in car sales.
(1) Macroeconomic environment 1) The downward pressure on the economy is heavy, and the growth of residents' income has slowed, which has impacted automobile demand.
China's GDP growth rate in 2019 was 6.
1%, lower than the same period.
Judging from the historical trends of GDP growth and automobile sales growth, automobile sales are greatly affected by GDP growth.
(See Chart 4) 2) Affected by the downward pressure on GDP, since 2018, the cumulative value of total profits of private enterprises has continued to grow negatively.
In 2019, the total profit of state-owned enterprises has also been at a negative growth level, affecting residents’ income, and the growth rate of per capita income and expenditure has declined.
Residents’ income and consumption are expected to decline.
Automobile consumption, as a bulk consumption, accounts for a relatively large proportion of household consumption.
The decline in income growth has a significant impact on automobile consumption.
Affected by the decline in revenue, auto consumption has seen a significant decline since 2018.
(See Chart 5) 3) From the point of view of the purchasing managers index, since entering 2019, most of China's PMI has been below the line of prosperity and decline, and the overall economy is in a state of contraction, although it has been above the line of prosperity and decline in November and December.
However, the future economic growth momentum is still slightly insufficient, which will still restrict the development of the manufacturing industry.
(See Chart 6) 4) The decline in the automotive market is also due to the lack of motivation for demand, including the motivation for the first car purchase and the motivation for repurchasing cars: the reason for the lack of motivation for first purchases, the working groups of small and medium-sized enterprises account for about 80% of the total work groups in China.
Newly-employed people account for about 90%.
The changes in my country's economic structure and the downward pressure on the private economy have led to lower incomes for low-income groups and a sharp decline in car purchase desire.
The reason for the lack of repurchase power is that the overall economy is under downward pressure, which affects the overall situation and prolongs the replacement cycle.
Research and investigation found that in the replacement car group, some people began to change the car and postpone it, which has a certain relationship with the residents' income expectation.
(2) Policy environmentThe rapidly advancing reform policy has brought a significant impact on the automotive industry.
In the first half of the year, the three major policies impacted the industry and had a significant impact on the development of the automotive industry.
The first is the switch from the National V fuel standard to the National VI fuel standard, which has caused severe market shocks.
It has not only triggered consumer wait-and-see sentiment, but also has a significant impact on auto manufacturers’ production, dealers’ willingness to purchase goods, and inventory processing.
Destocking promotions affect corporate profitability and market price order; at the same time overdraft consumer demand, the automotive market short-term Under pressure.
The second is the rapid decline of new energy vehicle subsidies, which has led to higher costs and lower sales of new energy vehicles.
Affected by the downturn in the automotive industry since 2018, major auto companies have experienced tight cash flow conditions.
The sharp decline in subsidies for new energy vehicles in June 2019 has exacerbated this situation.
As a result, some of the original best-selling models of various automakers had to withdraw from the market due to insufficient profitability.
This not only caused the loss of the enterprise, but also caused the sales of the entire industry to suffer.
After subsidies declined, the development of new energy vehicles was under pressure.
The third is the "large-ton and small-standard" management impact on truck sales.
Driven by market demand, the phenomenon of large-ton and small-scale is common in the field of light trucks in my country.
Affected by the governance of "large-ton and small-scale", the light truck industry is under pressure.
In 2019, the GDP growth rate stabilized and declined.
The slowdown in income, the lack of entrepreneurial confidence, and employment pressure transmitted to consumer confidence, which affected the demand for automobiles.
The overall performance of the Chinese automobile market was weak.
The automobile market is strongly positively correlated with economic development, and the downward pressure on the economy is greater, and the automobile market has entered a period of low-speed growth.
The supply-side structural reform began in 2015, and the economy has entered a period of adjustment.
The decline in the auto market since 2018 is mainly due to the differentiation of the economic structure that affects the purchasing power and consumer confidence of new buyers.
(3) In terms of consumption capacity 1) Overcapacity reduction and the continuation of the "Blue Sky Defense War", small and medium-sized enterprises are forced to shut down for rectification, and the income of related employees decreases or loses jobs, which limits their ability to buy cars, and they will also find a stable income again.
It is difficult to restore purchasing power within a few years; 2) The continuation of Sino-US trade friction has directly or indirectly affected the incomes of relevant employees.
As the friction escalates and ferments, the short-term impact is intensified; 3) As the cost of living in cities gradually increases, some cities Migrant workers choose to return to their hometown to start a business to earn a living, and their income will be impaired in the short term; 4) P2P lightning incidents have also affected the needs of potential users of new car consumption within a certain range, and it is difficult to restore consumption ability in the short term.
According to the income growth rate of the five income groups announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, the income growth rate of low- and middle-income earners has continued to decline since 2014, and has been lower than the national per capita disposable income growth rate in 2015, and it was only 4% in 2018.
%, this will inevitably have an adverse effect on the growth rate of car sales.
(See Exhibit 7) 3.
Pre-judgment of sales in China's auto market in 2020 3.
Pre-judgment of sales in China's auto market in 2020.
Overall in 2020, due to the slowdown in macroeconomic growth, the impact of lower-level consumers’ employment and income will still be affected.
Incomplete digestion, the continued fermentation of Sino-US economic and trade frictions and other factors, we predicted at the beginning of the year that the annual sales of 2020 will be 25.
26 million, a year-on-year decline of 2%.
However, around the Spring Festival in 2020, the "new coronavirus" epidemic is raging, which may affect China's economy and people's lives as a whole in the short term, disrupt the recovery pace of China's auto market, and will have a further downward impact on China's auto market.
.
However, the basic trend of my country's economic stability and long-term improvement has not changed.
We expect that in the next 3-5 years, China's auto market will return to the growth track.