Industrial naphthalene prices bottomed out

In mid-November, the domestic industrial naphthalene market began to rebound after
nearly one month of high decline.
As of November 19, the mainstream transaction price of industrial naphthalene rose to 5800~5900 yuan (ton price, the same below), with a weekly increase of 2.
6%.

"After experiencing a high downward adjustment, from the perspective of volume and price transactions and the existing social stock, the risk release of industrial naphthalene market is relatively full
.
Driven by the current low operating rate of coal tar deep processing enterprises, the steady growth of downstream phenylanhydride demand, and high costs, the phased bottoming rebound of industrial naphthalene is expected to continue
.
Shao Huiwen, a senior market commentator, analyzed
.

Starts continue to be low

Since June, the operating rate of domestic coal tar deep processing enterprises has remained low
.

According to the statistics of Henan Chemical Network, in June ~ October, the operating rate of domestic coal tar deep processing enterprises was 55%, 49%, 48%, 47% and 47%
respectively.
As of November 18, the operating rate of domestic coal tar deep processing enterprises was about
46%.

"Continuous load shedding is one of
the main reasons for the continuous rise in the industrial naphthalene market since July.
In early October, after the price of industrial naphthalene hit a high level, risks began to appear, some traders took profits, and since mid-to-late October, the epidemic and other factors have led to poor transportation, and the market of industrial naphthalene has fallen sharply, and there was a panic shipment clearance phenomenon
.
Since mid-November, as transportation in various places has gradually recovered, the buying popularity has ignited against the background of low or no inventory of production enterprises and a sharp reduction in social circulation supplies, and the industrial naphthalene market has stopped falling and rebounded
.
Shao Huiwen analyzed that from the current point of view, the operation of coal tar deep processing enterprises cannot be improved in the short term, and the possibility
of continuous rise in the price of industrial naphthalene cannot be ruled out.

Demand is growing steadily

Since September, the profits of domestic naphthalic anhydride enterprises have continued to rise, from less than 300 yuan in early September to more than 1300 yuan in November, forming a strong support
for the industrial naphthalene market.

According to the person in charge of a coal tar deep processing enterprise in Hebei, for enterprises that have their own supporting phthalic anhydride equipment, most of the industrial naphthalene products are for their own use, unless the equipment is overhauled or the production of phthalic anhydride has no cost advantage, some industrial naphthalene products
will be sold.
When the price of industrial naphthalene was at its high point in October, the company's phthalic anhydride plant was in the overhaul cycle, so the industrial naphthalene products were sold
for export.
During this period, other similar domestic enterprises also chose to ship at a high level, which promoted the decline of the domestic industrial naphthalene market
.

"From mid-November, the industrial naphthalene market has lagged back sharply, and some enterprises with self-supporting phthalic anhydride units will no longer have products for export, and the supply of industrial naphthalene is expected
to decrease.
With the resumption of operation after the maintenance of phthalic anhydride enterprises, the amount of industrial naphthalene extracted from phthalic anhydride enterprises will grow
steadily.
In addition, after nearly one month of adjustment in the industrial naphthalene market, water reducing agent companies also have rigid replenishment demand, which is expected to promote the industrial naphthalene market to continue to rebound
.
Hebei trader Lin Zengke analyzed
.

Costs remain high

Cui Huajie, head of operation of Henan Ruiyuan Xinneng Chemical Technology Co.
, Ltd.
, said that affected by factors such as coking enterprise production restrictions and environmental protection control, the current price of high-temperature coal tar has reached a record high, reaching about
6,400 yuan.
Industrial naphthalene cost support is strong
.

"As of November 21, the price of coal tar has increased by more than 40% this year, while industrial naphthalene has increased by only 18%.

When the price of industrial naphthalene was at its peak in October, the increase from the beginning of the year reached only 36%.

According to technical indicators, the current growth rate of the industrial naphthalene market is far from enough, and there is still room
for continued rebound.
Cui Huajie analyzed
.

However, some market participants are cautiously optimistic about the industrial naphthalene market
.
Since winter is the off-season for water reducing agent demand, the purchase amount of industrial naphthalene by naphthalene water reducing agent enterprises is generally not too large, and it is basically used and harvested
.
At the same time, the downturn in the terminal dye industry continued, resulting in the weak operation of the fine naphthalene and 2-naphthol markets, and there was no bright spot in demand
.
Therefore, whether the industrial naphthalene market can rebound sharply in the short term is still unknown, and the probability of jogging in small steps is relatively large
.
From a technical point of view, 6200 yuan is a short-term resistance level, if it can be effectively broken, the future market can still be expected
.