In the short term, the price of Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high volatility trend

In the domestic market, the fundamentals of the aluminum market show a pattern of weak supply and demand: the supply side is affected by factors such as pressure production in Guangxi, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Yunnan and other places, and it still takes time for electrolyzers to recover in some areas, and the short-term supply margin is weak
.
On the demand side, downstream consumption is suppressed by high aluminum prices and power cuts in Guangdong and Jiangsu, and it is still difficult to be optimistic
in the short term.

Foshan aluminum: 9/24 Nanchu Foshan aluminum ingot quotation 22930-22990 yuan, the average price of 22960 yuan, down 390, up 40
for the month.
Aluminum prices fell sharply during the day, market pressure was released, and settlement holders continued to actively ship and collect payments near the end of the month, while the middle and downstream also need to replenish tickets or bargain replenishment, supply and demand matching is better, and the transaction is mainly concentrated in the average price
.
The follow-up price fell sharply, the holder reported a premium of -100~250 yuan shipment, the receiver still sought a relatively low price source, but the actual transaction gradually weakened
.
The spot transaction price is concentrated in 22860-23210 yuan, which is a premium of -100~250 yuan
compared with the average price of Foshan in the South Reserve.

Wuxi aluminum: 9/24 Nanchu Wuxi aluminum ingot quotation 22890-22930 yuan, the average price is 22910 yuan, down 400, the month is posted 10
.
The East China market was weak during the day, and the Shanghai aluminum fell after the high volatility in early trading, and the receiver purchased more on demand at a low price, and the holders successively lowered to stimulate the realization of shipments, and the mainstream was reported at -10 yuan, and the transaction was not good
.
In the later stage, the plate showed a "V" shaped trend, and the shipper was still relatively positive, but the receiver waited and watched, the willingness to enter was not strong, and the premium was reported at -110~250 yuan, and the atmosphere was getting cold
.
The spot transaction price is concentrated between 22800-23160 yuan, which is higher than the average price of Nanchu Wuxi - 110~250 yuan
.

In the future, there is not much space above the aluminum price, mainly considering that the profit squeeze of processing enterprises is close to the limit, and the news that the reserve bureau is preparing for the next round of selling reserves will suppress the bulls' sentiment
.
For the space below the aluminum price, there is still uncertainty, if the subsequent supply of thermal coal cannot be guaranteed, the space for aluminum prices to fall will not be too large
.
In the short term, Shanghai aluminum prices are expected to maintain a high volatility dynamic trend, it is recommended to pay attention to risk factors
such as the sustainability of social library accumulation, the specific volume of imports, the weakening of macro demand, and the reduction of aluminum export tax rebates.