In the short term, Shanghai copper has become stronger, and there are still divergences in the later trend

Some analysts believe that from the trend of 2016, the upward trend of metal copper has become a foregone
conclusion.
At the same time, it is currently in the midst of seasonal strength, and Shanghai copper still has the possibility
of reaching a new high in the first quarter.
Looking back at the phased copper price trend, it can be seen that affected by the supply-side reform, the overall industrial products performed strongly in 2016, and the annual increase of copper metal exceeded 30%.

In the four quarters of 2016, Shanghai copper closed on a positive line
.
From the perspective of the extended cycle, the continuous closing of the quarterly line has only occurred in the first two bull market stages, and copper prices should be in a strong cycle
at present.
On the other hand, the 2016 highs came in November
.
From the seasonal factors of copper prices, it can be seen that the first half of the year is generally the peak consumption season, and in most years, the high point of Shanghai copper appears in the first half of the year
.
Statistics found that the high point of Shanghai copper in the second half of the year was higher than that in the first half of the year, in 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2010 and 2016
.
Obviously, exactly two bull cycles are included: one from 2002 to 2006 and the other from 2009 to 2011
.
The analysis believes that the continuous closing of the quarterly line and the record high of copper prices in the second half of the year can be regarded as two manifestations
of the characteristics of the bull market.
The probability of copper prices turning into a bull market is extremely high, and there is still the possibility of continuation of the
phased strength.

In terms of the market, affected by the Spring Festival holiday in January, the operating rate of cable companies fell sharply month-on-month, and the sales volume of the national passenger car market fell year-on-year.

From the perspective of the domestic trade market premium, as the delivery is approaching, the discount has narrowed on Thursday afternoon, and the downstream generally resumes work after the Lantern Festival after the delivery, and it is necessary to observe the transaction situation in the spot market at that time, if demand picks up and the strike continues to reduce supply, copper prices have room
to rise.

At present, the news that Chilean miners are preparing for a long-term strike supports copper prices to maintain a strong operation, but US President Trump recently indicated that he will issue a major statement on tax policy in a few weeks, as soon as the news came out, the three major stocks in the United States hit a record high, the dollar rebounded strongly, exerting certain pressure on copper prices, it is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate around the daily average line, and the lower average line is dense to form strong support, which is expected to run at 47300-47800 yuan / ton
.