In the next three months, China's corn price will rise all the way

Introduction: as for the trend of corn price in the next two months, it has become a consensus that the price keeps rising 1 The drought in the main corn producing areas of Northeast China is serious, and the reduction of autumn grain production has become a foregone conclusion In the first ten days of May, statistics from the Agricultural Department of Jilin Province showed that 25.5 million mu of corn was planted in this province, with the planting area reduced by 6% compared with last year By the end of May, due to the aggravation of drought, some plots had to destroy the seeds, and the sown area of corn would be reduced by 8% - 10% In Inner Mongolia and Liaoning, sowing plans have not been completed at all Although after June 10, most parts of Northeast China experienced rainfall process and the drought was relieved, but the sowing time of corn has passed, and there are still Dali corn that has not been planted, so we have to change to other crops with short growth period The reduction of corn planting area and the serious drought of sown corn will inevitably lead to the reduction of total corn output in the future after autumn, which will change the supply-demand relationship of corn from the basic balance of total corn to the tight supply, and the price will inevitably rise At the same time, it also increased people's psychological expectations for the rise of corn prices 2 Export factors In 2000, China exported 10 million tons of corn, and in the first four months of this year, 2.54 million tons of corn, which is still at a high level despite a decrease over the same period last year Recently, the state has increased the supplement of corn export to support corn export It is reported that Liaoning Province recently issued an export target of 300000 tons of corn, with the closing price of 95-97 US dollars per ton at the port, plus the state subsidies, the closing price will reach 1250-1270 yuan 3 The average price of existing inventory is relatively high The current stock of corn in Northeast China is mostly corn in 1998, and the protection price in 1998 is relatively high In addition to the storage fee and bank interest for three years, the average stock price is 1150-1160 yuan Only when the market price is higher than the purchase price and there is a certain profit can grain enterprises be willing to leave the warehouse, that is to say, when the price reaches 1200 yuan, the supply of corn will increase 4 The demand turns strong According to the past experience, every July and August is the peak of feed consumption At this time, Huaguang and southern corn production have been exhausted To continue production and consumption, it is necessary to purchase corn from the north With the natural increase of consumption demand, the demand will increase in the next two or three months To sum up, in the next two or three months, the price of corn will rise all the way, and eventually reach or flush the price of 1200 yuan out of the bankruptcy area (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: