In December, domestic soybean meal market pressure will emerge again

Introduction: since the double festival, due to the scale of livestock and poultry out of the market, domestic market breeding needs have been depressed, soybean meal sales have been weak for a long time In late November, driven by the speculation of soybean rust and mad cow disease in the external market, the price of soybean meal in the domestic market has been boosted from weak to strong, which has basically maintained a stable situation Among them, the ex factory price of 43 protein soybean meal in Northeast China is 2320-2350 yuan / ton, 2400-2460 yuan / ton in North China, 2380-2420 yuan / ton in Shandong and East China, and 2400-2420 yuan / ton in South China According to the routine, the domestic soybean meal will step into the new year's Day Spring Festival stock stage in December every year, the pressure of domestic soybean listing will also be weakened, and the market should be improved, but this year is different, the market pressure may be highlighted again, and the soybean meal market in this month will also be greatly affected The specific analysis is as follows: first, the arrival volume of imported soybeans will reach a peak According to statistics, in the first and middle of November, the stock of imported soybeans in China's ports has reached more than 2 million tons According to the tracking of soybean shipment, the arrival of imported soybeans in November will reach 2.3-2.4 million tons Due to the delay of partial shipment, the arrival of soybeans in late November and early December will be relatively intensive 11 In December, a total of 4.45 million tons of American soybeans will be transported to China, far higher than 2.34 million tons in the same period last year In addition to the 400000 tons of South American soybeans to be delivered, the total import volume in two months will reach 4.8 million tons Subtracting the arrival in November, the arrival of imported soybeans in December also reached 2.4 million tons It is not difficult to predict that China's port will enter the peak of imported soybean in December As the coastal oil plants are also waiting for the opportunity to start up due to the sufficient supply of raw materials, the domestic soybean meal will face greater supply pressure in this month II Increased import volume of domestic soybeans In the past years, the main soybean production areas in Northeast China usually open their scales at the end of September October and November are the peak seasons for listing This year is an exception After the opening of scales at the end of September, due to the price failing to reach the expected psychological price, farmers are generally reluctant to sell, and the squeezing factory is not willing to raise the price to purchase The result of the confrontation between the two sides is that the pressing season of domestic soybean has been greatly delayed A few days ago, the Ministry of Railways decided that from November 16 to January 15 next year, the railway department would use two months to transfer grain from the northeast to the outside The state grain also called on provincial leaders to actively coordinate the transportation of grain, which is expected to solve the problem of the difficulty of soybean transportation among the purchasing manufacturers In addition, in the long-term confrontation, soybean farmers in Northeast China have gradually recognized the purchase price In addition, some manufacturers have raised the price appropriately At present, soybean sales have been active, and the market volume of soybean will increase significantly If the purchase and transportation of soybeans go smoothly, the domestic soybeans may also come to the market peak in December, and the soybean start-up rate of oil plants in the north will also improve, the market supply of soybean meal will grow rapidly, and the price of soybean meal may also face downward pressure 3 The preparation of soybean meal in feed factory may be delayed As a rule, during the mid autumn national day, after the scale of livestock and poultry products is put on the market, all the farmers will make up the column in time Generally, in November and December, the newly added column will take shape All the producers will start to purchase a large number of soybean meal due to the preparation of new year's day and Spring Festival, so the domestic demand for soybean meal is expected to meet a small peak However, this year is different After the double festival, the price of poultry and egg products has dropped significantly, which has dampened the enthusiasm of the farmers to make up the market Later, the rumors about avian influenza in the market made the farmers more cautious, and the breeding was delayed again and again Generally, it takes 1-2 months for the young to take shape, so the demand for soybean meal feed in the farms will be delayed However, as feed manufacturers continue to be bearish on the future market, they are still not active in purchasing, or they mainly use and collect the feed immediately It can be seen that the growth of domestic soybean meal demand in December will not be optimistic and the market price will lose strong support Fourth, the external market is also facing the pressure of high-level decline The latest oil world magazine predicted that the output of the seven major oil crops in the world in 2004 / 2005 will reach 368.9 million tons, which will exceed the possible consumption of 350.4 million tons in the current season, and the overall price will gradually fall Although the soybean price in the United States is supported by soybean rust and other reasons at present, the soybean harvest in the United States is close to the end when soybean rust is found, which will not affect the output of this year, and may not be too large for the next year In addition, the detection of suspected cases of BSE has also been ruled out, and the hype is about to end In addition, from January to February next year, South American soybean farmers may also sell soybeans in order to vacate their positions It is expected that the soybean market in December will decline with the increase of pressure, and the domestic soybean meal price will also be deeply affected In a word, in December, whether domestic or imported soybeans, the supply will be very sufficient, and the demand for soybean meal in the feed market due to the slow recovery of domestic breeding is also insufficient, coupled with the external market pressure, the domestic soybean meal market will face heavy downward pressure In this way, the probability of soybean meal price rising in this month will be greatly reduced, and it will continue to be weak or have a significant decline.