In 2021, drug sales of public medical institutions will reach 1,297.3 billion yuan, biological drugs will soar, and domestic substitution will accelerate under the normalization of centralized procurement

In 2021, with the gradual easing of the domestic epidemic, China's economy will continue to recover steadily, market demand will rebound, and economic development will be stable and sou.

In the pharmaceutical industry, driven by policies, the pharmaceutical and health industry is undergoing profound changes: on the one hand, the state attaches great importance to the pharmaceutical and health industry, encourages innovation, the deepening of the aging population, and the growing health needs of the peop.

The development of the industry has brought important development opportunities to pharmaceutical manufacture.

On the other hand, the three-medical linkage reform has been further accelerated, and the industry uncertainty is still high; the state organizes the normalization of centralized drug procurement, more and more drugs are included in centralized procurement, drug prices have dropped significantly, and the generic drug business is further under pressure; The continuous advancement of the disease-specific payment model and the increasingly perfect monitoring and assessment system for rational drug use have brought certain challenges to the development of the pharmaceutical indust.

In 2021, terminal drug sales in China's public medical institutions will achieve a recovery growth, an increase of 2% compared with 2020, with sales of 1,293 billion yuan, but the sales of most drug categories have not recovered to the level in 2019 before the epidem.

2017-2021 China's public medical institutions terminal drug sales and growth chart

 

Source: Min.

com China's public medical institutions terminal competition pattern

Biological drugs surged 18%, and their market position continued to improve

From the perspective of the distribution of drug types: in 2021, the proportion of terminal chemical drugs in public medical institutions in China will be the largest, exceeding 65%; followed by proprietary Chinese medicines, which will be close to 20%; the proportion of biological drugs is relatively small, but the market share of biological drugs continues to rise , the market position continues to improve, and the growth rate of sales in 2021 will reach 18%, much higher than the growth rate of chemical drugs and Chinese patent medicin.

Biological drugs: In recent years, the state has taken biological drugs as the main direction of strategic emerging industries, and has continued to increase policy suppo.

Benefiting from the support of national policies, and driven by factors such as technological innovation, the attention of enterprises, and the enhancement of residents' awareness of health care, the sales of China's biological drug market will increase significantly in 2021, with an increase of 18%, and the proportion of sales will continue to ri.

Its growth mainly comes from three aspects: first, most of the varieties in the national negotiation catalogue are biopharmaceuticals, and these varieties have realized the exchange of price for volume, and the sales have increased significantly; second, the newly launched innovative drugs among biological products in recent years are relatively In particular, anti-tumor antibody drugs; third, biological drugs are drug categories with large market demand and relatively large amount of drugs us.

After the impact of the new crown epidemic has been reduced, the market demand has been releas.

With the arrival of the sixth batch of special centralized procurement of insulin in 2021, the first shot of the centralized procurement of biological drugs has been fir.

The national centralized procurement of biological drugs has been set, and the centralized procurement policy will have a certain impact on the biopharmaceutical mark.

Chemical drugs: In 2021, the impact of the new crown epidemic will be reduced, and the increase in the number of medical patients in the market for chemical drugs in public medical institutions is gradually recoveri.

Influenced by factors such as the price reduction of nationally negotiated varieties, and the stricter control of medical insurance fees, the sales of chemical drugs showed a slight upward trend, an increase of 6% compared with 2020, but the proportion of sales still showed a downward trend year by ye.

Proprietary Chinese medicine: In recent years, the general tone of the state's strong support for the inheritance and innovation of traditional Chinese medicine has remained unchang.

The development of traditional Chinese medicine has become a "national strategy", and a series of policies have been issued to encourage the development of traditional Chinese medici.

However, in recent years, the market for proprietary Chinese medicines has been sluggi.

In 2020, it will be greatly affected by the new crown epidem.

In 2021, the impact of the new crown epidemic will gradually decrea.

The sales of proprietary Chinese medicines in public medical institutions have also gradually recovered, with sales increasing by 9% year-on-ye.

The proportion of sales of proprietary Chinese medicines is still on a downward tre.

As some Chinese patent medicine varieties are included in the provincial alliance centralized procurement and successively implemented, this will have a certain impact on the sales of Chinese patent medicines in public medical institutions in the futu.

2017-2021 China Public Medical Institutions Terminal Sales Proportion of Various Drug Types and Year-on-Year Growth Distribution Table

 

Source: Min.

com China's public medical institutions terminal competition pattern

In the past ten years, the growth rate of generic drugs surpassed that of original research drugs for the first ti.

The trend of domestic substitution is obvious, and original research drugs are challeng.

Generic drugs dominate the terminal market of public medical institutions in China, and their market share has increased from 609% in 2020 to 723%, indicating an improved market positi.

The sales of generic drugs increased by 40% compared with 2020, surpassing the growth rate of original research drugs for the first time in the past ten years, and domestic substitution has accelerat.

The sales of original research drugs in public medical institutions in China accounted for about 30%, a slight decrease compared with 202 The original research drugs are mainly concentrated in anti-tumor, digestive system (diabetes), respiratory system, nervous system and other therapeutic fiel.

Their products are all innovative therapeutic drugs in the market, and the market demand is lar.

The impact is great, and the substitution trend of the selected generic drugs for the original research drugs is obvio.

Proportion and year-on-year growth distribution of terminal original and generic drugs in Chinese public medical institutions in 2021

 

Source: Min.

com China's public medical institutions terminal competition pattern

The number of consultations in public medical institutions has increased, the amount of medication has rebounded, and the three major terminals have not returned to pre-epidemic levels

After the COVID-19 epidemic in China was gradually brought under control, the number of consultations in public hospitals increased significant.

From January to November 2021, the number of consultations in public hospitals increased by 23% compared with January to November 202 Among them, tertiary hospitals increased the most, reaching 38 %; the increase in the number of patients treated has led to a recovery in the sales of public hospita.

Urban public hospitals are the main channels for patients to seek medical treatment, and their drug categories are mainly therapeutic drugs for severe, serious diseases and emergencies such as tumors, cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, and diabet.

Rigid drug demand has led to a rapid recovery in drug sales of urban public hospitals in 2021, with a large year-on-year increase; sales of county-level public hospitals have a relatively small increase of 6% compared with 202

In primary medical institutions, community health service centers (stations) are chronic disease management centers, and chronic disease medication is dominant in this chann.

The drug market in centers (stations) is growi.

In 2021, the sales of drugs in community health service centers (stations) will grow steadily, an increase of 4% compared with 2020; the drugs in township health centers are mainly drugs for common diseases and frequently-occurring diseas.

After the outbreak, people pay more attention to health and hygiene, which reduces the number of patients with common and frequently-occurring diseas.

Therefore, the sales of township health centers will only increase by 2% in 202

From the above, it can be seen that although the number of consultations in public hospitals (January-November 2021) has increased compared with that before the epidemic (January-November 2019), the amount of medication in the four major medical markets of Chinese public medical institutions has rebound.

The amount of drug use in the three major markets other than community health service centers (stations) has not returned to the level of 201

Proportion and year-on-year growth distribution of the four major channels of terminal sales of public medical institutions in China in 2021

 

Source: Min.

com China's public medical institutions terminal competition pattern

The continuous advancement of the centralized procurement policy has a far-reaching impact on the industry, but it is gradually becoming more ration.

The pharmaceutical industry is a highly regulated industry and is relatively affected by policies, especially the centralized procurement poli.

2021 is the implementation period of the first batch of 4+7 centralized procurement, the first batch of 4+7 expanded centralized procurement, the second batch, the third batch, the fourth batch and the fifth batch of national centralized procurement varieties, involving a total of 184 varieti.

Generic bra.

From the sales changes in public medical institutions of the first batch of 4+7 expanded centralized procurement and the second batch of centralized procurement that have been implemented for more than one year: the year-on-year decrease in the sales of the two batches of generic varieties There are two main reasons: one is that the sales of the selected varieties have declined to a certain extent due to the sharp drop in the winning bid price; Squeeze, the sales volume fell sharply, and at the same time, the impact of the epidemic was superimposed, which led to a sharp drop in the sales amount of the entire generic na.

On the whole, among the two batches of centralized procurement varieties, the sales of non-selected brands decreased by more than 50% year-on-year, while the decrease of selected brands was relatively small, but the decrease rate was also more than 2
In terms of subdivided into a single variety, due to the different therapeutic areas, their own attributes and market foundations targeted by the products, the market performance after the implementation of centralized procurement is also quite different: for example, the selected "barefoot" brand after the implementation of centralized procurement, Sales have increased significantly; the market sales of selected brands with good market foundations will also decline to varying degrees; however, the sales of unselected brands will definitely drop significantly, especially the unselected generic drug bran.

The sales performance of the first batch of 4+7 expansion and the second batch of centralized collection varieties in the implementation period of public medical institutions

 

Note: The implementation period of the first batch of expansion is calculated according to the whole year of 20Q1-20Q4, and the calculation period of the year-on-year growth rate is the whole year of 19Q1-19Q4; 20Q1 rolling ye.

Source: Min.com China's public medical institutions terminal competition pattern

 

Due to the increase in the demand for biological drugs and the increase in the number of patients undergoing diagnosis and treatment, the related categories have increased significantly

From the distribution of the sales of chemical drugs (including biological drugs) in each treatment category, the sales of urgent and severe drugs such as anti-tumor immunomodulatory drugs and drugs for chronic diseases and other just-needed drugs accounted for a relatively high proportion in public medical institutio.

Judging from the year-on-year growth of the sales of chemical drugs (including biological drugs) in each therapeutic category in 2021: drugs in each therapeutic category have shown different levels of grow.

Among them, the treatment categories with a growth rate of more than 10% mainly come from two types of fields: one is the category in which the number of patients in the market continues to rise, but the existing drugs have not fully met the needs, and there are new biological drugs on the market in the past two yea.

Such as anti-tumor and immunomodulatory drugs, sensory system drugs, dermatological drugs, and systemic hormone preparations (excluding sex hormones and insulin), e.

; the other is due to the reduction of the impact of the new crown epidemic and the increase in the number of medical institutio.

Added categories (such as respiratory drugs, miscellaneous, e.

The categories with a lower growth rate are mainly therapeutic areas that are greatly affected by relevant national policies: for example, the main categories affected by national centralized procurement include digestive system and metabolic drugs, cardiovascular system drugs, e.

; Infectious drugs; nervous system drugs affected by the National Key Drug Li.

Proportion and year-on-year growth distribution of terminal chemical drugs (including biological drugs) in Chinese public medical institutions in 2021

 

Source: Min.

com China's public medical institutions terminal competition pattern

The distribution of the sales ratio of each treatment category of Chinese patent medicines: affected by the rebound in the number of patients in diagnosis and treatment, compared with 2020, the sales growth rate of more than 10% includes pediatric drugs, dermatology drugs, respiratory disease drugs, bone Medications for muscular system diseases and nervous system medicatio.

The growth rate of acute and severe medicines and chronic disease medicines is relatively low, such as cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease medicines, tumor medicines, urinary system diseases and gynecological medicin.

Proportion and year-on-year growth distribution of Chinese patent medicines in public medical institutions in 2021