Imported milk powder stirs up milk market

Introduction: after the milk source war and M & A, China's milk industry ushered in the milk pouring event The incident hasn't subsided yet A deep hidden problem is fermenting in China's dairy industry - pouring milk: is milk really much? In recent years, the milk fever caused by SFD in China has made the milk pouring events all over the country confused SFD's national dairy giants have just set off a milk source war, and the national dairy M & A is still in progress Not only the industry's bright, three yuan and other leading enterprises have accelerated the pace of restructuring, but also large enterprises outside the industry such as Wahaha and Le Baishi have successively entered the dairy industry Recently, Sichuan new hope group has invested 5 billion yuan to purchase dairy factories nationwide However, cattle raising has also become a major direction of agricultural structural adjustment in various places In some places, cows have become "blue chip stocks" and are widely sought after In some places, cows are even fired to the point of "no market with price" In the eyes of some people, dairy industry is full of gold SFD seems to be denied by a series of "milk pouring events" First, South China Sea milk pouring and cattle killing in Guangdong Province, then Guangxi milk pouring, Lanzhou in Gansu Province, Nanjing in Jiangsu Province, Chengdu in Sichuan Province, Shijiazhuang in Hebei Province, etc all have milk pouring phenomenon, and Kunming in Southwest China also has excessive milk source In this case, milk in the eyes of some people has become "salt sprinkled on the wound." According to a dairy researcher, from the experience of the past 10 years, China's dairy industry will have a surplus of milk every three or four years, followed by large-scale killing, selling and even dumping of milk, and this year just reached a cycle critical point However, Zhang Huafu, vice president of Bright Dairy, said that from the national perspective, there is no time for excess milk supply The periodic surplus of milk resources - pouring milk to kill cows - lack of milk resources, the dairy industry is suffering from a great loss of vitality Gu Jiasheng, director of the processing technology committee of China Dairy Association and director of Shanghai nutrition society, who has been engaged in dairy research for a long time, believes that the milk in China has not reached the point of surplus, and the fundamental reason for this vicious circle lies in the different interests of the main bodies in the dairy chain In the foreign agricultural industry chain, farmers are in the form of shareholders Even if the market fluctuates greatly, the whole industry development is very stable, the interests of all parties are safeguarded to the greatest extent, and the production capacity is also preserved In our country, the interest subjects of each link of dairy industry are different The mode of "company + farmer" is mostly the one-time purchase of raw materials, the whole chain is disconnected, the interests of dairy farmers are not protected, and it is difficult to guarantee the high-quality raw milk required by processing and circulation enterprises Once the market is in a whirlwind, the interests of vulnerable dairy farmers are damaged first, then the whole industry This is also an important reason why China's dairy industry is not growing SFD industry specific analysis of the reasons for pouring milk mainly have the following factors First, the milk source itself has seasonal differences In the south, there is more milk in winter and less in summer In the north, there is less milk in winter and more in summer Second, there is a large gap between the expected market demand of dairy industry and the actual demand, and the development of dairy cattle exceeds the market development speed, resulting in a relative surplus The consumption of milk is linked to the level of economic development When the per capita national income exceeds 800 US dollars, the consumption of milk will increase by more than 30% The economy has not reached this level, and the actual demand of the market has not come up The hard push can only lead to excess milk supply In the past, when there was a surplus of milk sources, processing enterprises usually used to collect fresh milk and then make milk powder to relieve the pressure and get through the difficulties But this time, because foreign low-cost milk powder came in, milking out the market share of some domestic milk powder, there is no profit in making milk powder by oneself, so it's not hard to understand how to pour milk and kill cattle What worries the insiders is still behind Now many enterprises are quietly doing the work of reducing liquid milk with imported milk powder Once it is promoted on a large scale in the industry, the impact on the whole domestic milk industry is incalculable SFD reduced milk: imported milk powder? This year is the first year after China's accession to the WTO According to the tariff reduction plan promised by the Chinese government, the tariff of milk powder will be reduced from 25% to 15% this year and to 10% by 2004 According to statistics, the imported milk powder accounted for 12% of the domestic milk powder production in 2000 When people didn't seem to have enough understanding of this problem, the imported milk powder poured in and quietly affected the domestic milk industry pattern The advantage of foreign milk powder lies in the price first New Zealand's milk powder to Guangming's factory in Shanghai is about 16000 yuan per ton, while Guangming produces its own milk powder in Shanghai, up to 26000 yuan per ton Moreover, the hygiene and quality of imported milk powder are better than that of us Once domestic milk powder loses its obvious price advantage, even in some areas at present, especially in the South with high milk price, the fate of domestic milk powder factories is naturally to shrink the market and reduce the production of milk powder Therefore, after a large number of cheap and high-quality imported milk powder entered, the life of domestic milk powder factories is very difficult, especially the southern milk powder enterprises with high milk cost and the small and medium-sized milk powder enterprises in the north The seriousness of the problem is that many factories will seriously hit the most potential liquid milk market in China by using imported milk powder as reducing milk SFD liquid milk has always been a competitive product between domestic dairy industry and foreign dairy industry Due to the limitation of region and the perishability of dairy products, SFD has formed the localization characteristics of liquid milk In addition, the nutritional components of milk are less damaged in the state of liquid milk, which is most easily absorbed by human body and more beneficial to human body Moreover, the fastest growing market of dairy industry in the next few years is liquid milk So many people believe that with the continuous development of China's economy, the dairy industry, especially the liquid milk, will have a very large growth After China's accession to the WTO, the liquid milk is the least impacted variety by foreign dairy products Therefore, many manufacturers that used to mainly produce milk powder are now increasing the production of liquid milk But the problem is not so simple As the price of imported milk powder is low and the quality of imported milk powder is much higher than that of domestic milk powder, as long as the profit of domestic processing enterprises is large enough, it will be a large area to use imported milk powder as reducing milk Now using milk powder as reducing milk is basically an open secret in the industry Wu Dongyang, general manager of meilijiang in Hangzhou, said that the factory that imports milk powder to Hangzhou now costs 17000 yuan per ton Now, using imported milk powder as reducing milk does not have enough attraction for him But later, the tariff of milk powder will be reduced to 10% Once the price reaches 14000, Wu said that the profit of reducing milk can be seen by everyone, and almost 100% of manufacturers will do it Next, the enterprise will almost certainly increase the elimination rate of dairy cows, reduce the milk group, and raise the threshold of acquisition, which forces dairy farmers and self-employed households to kill cows However, enterprises and dairy farmers kill cattle in different ways, the same is the result, the damage to the development of the whole industry will be huge A good standard of SFD is better than a hundred thousand elite soldiers Whether it is to regulate the industry or to deal with the impact of imported products, standards are the key Experts said that the nutritional composition of reduced milk powder is much lower than that of fresh milk Because there is no national standard for reduced milk, it is unable to limit the liquid milk reduced by milk powder at present, and there is no sign for reduced milk in the market Therefore, the milk powder reduction liquid milk will be unscrupulous, gradually nibbling at the domestic very advantageous liquid milk, and finally squeezing the domestic milk space SFD student milk: ingenious system arrangement? In this situation, it seems that people have more reason to put more hope on the integration, regulation and promotion of the whole milk industry of the national student milk program One reason is that in order to ensure the nutritional quality of milk, the use of reduced milk is explicitly prohibited This will undoubtedly effectively block the impact of imported milk powder on domestic milk industry, especially liquid milk Another reason is that the national student milk program is a long-term measure In addition to a cup of milk to strengthen a nation, another slogan is to pull an industry with a cup of milk, expand China's vast milk market, and adjust the agricultural industrial structure The proportion of student milk in the total milk is 5% in the United States, 9% in Japan and 30% in Thailand Up to now, five pilot cities in China, including Shanghai, Shenyang, Beijing, Guangzhou and Tianjin, plus Shenzhen, Ningbo and Kunming, have only one million packets of student milk in China, each of which has a specification of 200 ml in this way, the daily consumption of milk is 200 tons, and only 73 thousand tons per year, of which the milk consumption is 200 tons That's less than 1 percent If one hundred million of the country's 220 million primary and secondary school students drink milk, the daily consumption of milk is 20000 tons, 7.3 million tons a year, equivalent to 80% of the current output! Even if 29 million primary and secondary school students in 30 provincial capitals drink student milk, 200 ml per person per day, the demand for a year is as high as 2.12 million tons, accounting for 1 / 4 of the domestic output Therefore, the whole chain of the dairy industry, including cattle raising, processing, sales and services, will obtain huge benefits Student milk will provide a very broad and long-term development space for the domestic dairy industry SFD The significance of student milk is not only the expansion of quantity and market, but also the high market access standard of student milk In the words of the insiders, it is a high-tech and difficult action to make student milk, which requires high risk and thin profit The enterprise that makes student milk is the best enterprise in the country The raw materials should be the best fresh milk without antibiotics Many other indicators are required to be the best in China Students' milk must have a milk source base, which requires mechanical milking, advanced processing equipment, strict heat preservation system and distribution system, and the hazard analysis and critical control point (HACCP) system, which is in line with international practice, will take the lead in compulsory implementation of students' milk At present, the backwardness of raw milk, the lax quality and hygiene inspection, the small and scattered processing enterprises, the disordered competition, and the local blockade, which are criticized by the industry, are constantly improved with the continuous promotion of student milk A modern dairy enterprise, which is gradually in line with the international standards in quality and management, will strengthen China's dairy industry SFD student milk provides a clever institutional arrangement for the development of China's milk industry, but the promotion of student milk is still in the initial stage Although the use of reduced milk is prohibited by the regulations of student milk, it is difficult to detect the reduced milk with less formula with domestic equipment For example, there is no way to do anything about the reduced milk with 30% milk powder Although there are regulatory measures for student milk, due to many factors, the regulatory means cannot keep up with them, the regulatory capacity is insufficient, and effective regulation cannot be implemented The problem of reduced milk is still in the industry The degree of self-discipline At the same time, the promotion of student milk in China is relatively slow Up to now, there are 1 million primary and secondary school students who drink student milk in eight cities in China, of which Shanghai accounts for 420000 Most of the other cities are below 100000 The student milk in Beijing has been promoted by enterprises and later pilot projects Now it has been many years, only 25000 Guangming dairy, the supplier of Shanghai student milk, has been pushing milk in Shanghai school for a long time It has worked very hard, but it has little effect Later, the local government paid attention to it, and it is much easier to promote it Before the pilot, there were only more than 20000, and then there were 100000