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2021 can be said to be the year when the valuation of the pharmaceutical sector returns.
Coupled with the impact of volume procurement, "involution" of new drug development, and the epidemic, the A-share pharmaceutical and biological sector performed poorly, and the Shenwan primary industry index pharmaceutical and biological down 5.
73%
.
So, how will the pharmaceutical sector be interpreted in 2022? It can be seen that in 2021, relative to the overall performance of the industry, the sub-industries of the pharmaceutical and biological sector are significantly differentiated.
For example, when the industrial indexes such as medical devices, chemical drugs, biological products, and medical services have fallen, traditional Chinese medicine has risen against the trend
.
In 2021, the traditional Chinese medicine index will rise by 31.
71%, and the reasons behind it are mainly related to favorable policies, product price increases and other factors
.
In 2021, many traditional Chinese medicine companies' performance forecasts are also relatively bright, and the annual net profit is expected to double
.
For example, Conba expects its net profit in 2021 to increase by 325% to 375% year-on-year; Teyi Pharmaceutical expects its net profit in 2021 to increase by 173.
87% to 242.
34% year-on-year; Zuoli Pharmaceutical expects its net profit to increase by 91.
44% to 110.
58% in 2021 %
.
The analysis believes that the differentiation of the various sub-sectors of the pharmaceutical and biological sector is related to the epidemic situation, volume procurement and other reasons.
The industrial chain and pattern of each sub-industry are also changing.
It is expected that the current differentiation of the pharmaceutical sector will continue
.
Soochow Research Institute believes that in 2022, high-end manufacturing represented by CXO, APIs, life science services and other medical devices will have a high degree of prosperity and a relatively broad space for import substitution.
It is a relatively certain sub-section of pharmaceutical investment; innovative drugs, new vaccines The technological innovation companies represented by it are expected to recover in 2022 under the stabilization of policy expectations and the advancement of innovative research and development; in addition, pharmaceutical consumption represented by household medical devices, medical services, and traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods will not be affected by the policy.
, long slope and thick snow, suitable for institutional redistribution
.
Analysts in the pharmaceutical industry of CITIC Construction Investment Securities believe that under the transformation of new technologies such as double antibody, ADC, and cell gene therapy, new investment opportunities will be brought to everyone.
.
Special attention directions include: the supply chain of upstream pharmaceutical industries, such as APIs, pharmaceutical equipment, consumables, devices, IVD and life science services; second, the internationalization of leading companies in innovative drugs and innovative devices; Third, pharmaceutical outsourcing, including CRO and CDMO, is a very good track in the long run
.
There are many securities companies who hold similar views to the above-mentioned institutions.
On the whole, after the adjustment in 2021, the industry is generally optimistic about some subdivided tracks with high valuation, cost performance and strong comparative advantages in the pharmaceutical industry in 2022.
, so the industry as a whole is full of expectations
.
From the perspective of the long-term prospects of the pharmaceutical sector, the industry is also a long-slope and thick-snow industry, which is mainly supported by three aspects
.
One is the trend of population aging
.
China's population aging trend is intensifying.
Statistics show that by 2040, China's aging population may account for more than 20% of the entire population, and the proportion of people over 80 years old will be higher
.
In this context, the demand for medicines of the huge elderly group will also continue to expand
.
Second, the engineer bonus
.
Medicine is an industry driven mainly by innovation.
In recent years, with the improvement of the domestic pharmaceutical innovation environment and the continuous support of favorable policies, the pharmaceutical industry has attracted the return of many overseas talents, and a huge number of engineers or groups will contribute to the development of the entire industry.
The supply side provides a stronger talent pool
.
Third, the ability to pay for medical care has been continuously strengthened
.
With economic development, per capita disposable income continues to increase, residents' consumption levels continue to upgrade, and the promotion of national medical insurance payment, overall, the domestic medical payment capacity shows a trend of gradual strengthening
.
Coupled with the impact of volume procurement, "involution" of new drug development, and the epidemic, the A-share pharmaceutical and biological sector performed poorly, and the Shenwan primary industry index pharmaceutical and biological down 5.
73%
.
So, how will the pharmaceutical sector be interpreted in 2022? It can be seen that in 2021, relative to the overall performance of the industry, the sub-industries of the pharmaceutical and biological sector are significantly differentiated.
For example, when the industrial indexes such as medical devices, chemical drugs, biological products, and medical services have fallen, traditional Chinese medicine has risen against the trend
.
In 2021, the traditional Chinese medicine index will rise by 31.
71%, and the reasons behind it are mainly related to favorable policies, product price increases and other factors
.
In 2021, many traditional Chinese medicine companies' performance forecasts are also relatively bright, and the annual net profit is expected to double
.
For example, Conba expects its net profit in 2021 to increase by 325% to 375% year-on-year; Teyi Pharmaceutical expects its net profit in 2021 to increase by 173.
87% to 242.
34% year-on-year; Zuoli Pharmaceutical expects its net profit to increase by 91.
44% to 110.
58% in 2021 %
.
The analysis believes that the differentiation of the various sub-sectors of the pharmaceutical and biological sector is related to the epidemic situation, volume procurement and other reasons.
The industrial chain and pattern of each sub-industry are also changing.
It is expected that the current differentiation of the pharmaceutical sector will continue
.
Soochow Research Institute believes that in 2022, high-end manufacturing represented by CXO, APIs, life science services and other medical devices will have a high degree of prosperity and a relatively broad space for import substitution.
It is a relatively certain sub-section of pharmaceutical investment; innovative drugs, new vaccines The technological innovation companies represented by it are expected to recover in 2022 under the stabilization of policy expectations and the advancement of innovative research and development; in addition, pharmaceutical consumption represented by household medical devices, medical services, and traditional Chinese medicine consumer goods will not be affected by the policy.
, long slope and thick snow, suitable for institutional redistribution
.
Analysts in the pharmaceutical industry of CITIC Construction Investment Securities believe that under the transformation of new technologies such as double antibody, ADC, and cell gene therapy, new investment opportunities will be brought to everyone.
.
Special attention directions include: the supply chain of upstream pharmaceutical industries, such as APIs, pharmaceutical equipment, consumables, devices, IVD and life science services; second, the internationalization of leading companies in innovative drugs and innovative devices; Third, pharmaceutical outsourcing, including CRO and CDMO, is a very good track in the long run
.
There are many securities companies who hold similar views to the above-mentioned institutions.
On the whole, after the adjustment in 2021, the industry is generally optimistic about some subdivided tracks with high valuation, cost performance and strong comparative advantages in the pharmaceutical industry in 2022.
, so the industry as a whole is full of expectations
.
From the perspective of the long-term prospects of the pharmaceutical sector, the industry is also a long-slope and thick-snow industry, which is mainly supported by three aspects
.
One is the trend of population aging
.
China's population aging trend is intensifying.
Statistics show that by 2040, China's aging population may account for more than 20% of the entire population, and the proportion of people over 80 years old will be higher
.
In this context, the demand for medicines of the huge elderly group will also continue to expand
.
Second, the engineer bonus
.
Medicine is an industry driven mainly by innovation.
In recent years, with the improvement of the domestic pharmaceutical innovation environment and the continuous support of favorable policies, the pharmaceutical industry has attracted the return of many overseas talents, and a huge number of engineers or groups will contribute to the development of the entire industry.
The supply side provides a stronger talent pool
.
Third, the ability to pay for medical care has been continuously strengthened
.
With economic development, per capita disposable income continues to increase, residents' consumption levels continue to upgrade, and the promotion of national medical insurance payment, overall, the domestic medical payment capacity shows a trend of gradual strengthening
.
