How will the corn market be affected by the rampant SARS

Introduction: Recently, a sudden disaster has tested our human beings The focus of social attention has turned to SARS virus, and all kinds of information and rumors have spread in the market The impact of SARS virus is gradually reflected in the grain market, and corn operators are under great pressure The author analyzes the impact of SARS on the corn market in the following aspects: the loss and impact of HF81 and SARS on the breeding industry Hf8 Although the losses of "SARS" to the breeding industry cannot be estimated for the time being, we have learned from Guangdong, the first place where the epidemic of "SARS" occurred, that the production of feed enterprises in Guangdong has been seriously affected, mainly reflected in the early stage of animal flu in Guangdong and other places that has had an impact on the breeding industry and related industries, and the livestock and poultry products in the agricultural market are still returned by consumers Avoid, the sales turnover is greatly reduced In addition, it is said that the export of chicken, pork, etc in China is temporarily stopped, which will directly affect the rate of livestock and poultry storage The number of livestock and poultry storage in some farms in Guangdong has dropped to the lowest since this year, resulting in low demand for feed and certain impact on feed production As a result, corn prices in southern China did not rebound seasonally before May Day The cancellation of May Day holiday has a great impact on tourism and catering industry, and indirectly affects the consumption of livestock and poultry products To defeat SARS has become an important political task in our current work Therefore, we should not overestimate the indirect impact of SARS on the corn market, nor despise the harm of the virus to the market At present, the price of small boat board in Huangpu port, Guangdong Province is 1160-1170 yuan / ton, and that in Shekou port is 1060-1070 yuan / ton, which is basically stable The psychological pressure and influence of hf82 and SARS on corn operators Due to the outbreak of "SARS" and its serious impact on the society, some feed enterprises in Guangdong feel vague about the later trend of corn price Compared with previous years, they are cautious in purchasing corn, soybean meal and other raw materials Most market participants know that pig and poultry feed accounts for more than 70% of the whole feed industry If the purchasing power of livestock and poultry products is reduced, it will directly affect the feed production and processing links Therefore, the purchase of corn by feed enterprises began to slow down, and the recovery speed of corn price began to slow down At present, there are rumors that because of the fear of SARS, many people's consumption of meat is reduced It is mainly a rumor that the SARS virus comes from chickens, pigs and other livestock and poultry This is just a market rumor So far, the SARS virus has not been determined where it comes from People's fear of livestock and poultry food seems to be some "soldiers everywhere", which is caused by serious psychological pressure Hf83 and "SARS" did not affect China's corn export In March of hf8, China's corn export continued to maintain a high level, with a total of 1.59 million tons of corn exported in the whole month According to Jilin grain and oil import and export company, the export contract of corn in China has been signed in August and September On April 21, China's export quotation is 112-115 US dollars / ton, which is 5-8 US dollars / ton higher than the FOB price in March and April Under the favorable situation of international corn market price, the proper increase of corn export price in China will not affect the export quantity of corn in China The freight from China's corn to South Korea is 6-6.5 US dollars / ton Therefore, the CNF price from China to South Korea is about 125-126 US dollars / ton, which is only 5-9 US dollars / ton lower than that from the United States or Argentina The price difference between China and the United States is narrowed again It is worth noting that in the spring of 2003, the planting area of China and the United States decreased at the same time, and the supply of autumn market in 2003 will be reduced In addition, since this year, the export of corn in the United States has been slow Some professional analysts believe that the main reason for the decline of the export of corn in the United States is the increase of domestic demand, especially the sharp increase in fuel ethanol consumption has used corn equivalent to 25% of the total output This year, the inventory of corn in the United States is 1.009 billion bushels, the lowest value in six years As a result, the amount of corn supplied by the United States to the international market has decreased Asian buyers only buy corn from China or Argentina In the face of the SARS epidemic, the Chinese government attaches great importance to hf8 President Hu Jintao recently stressed that to win the battle against the epidemic, the most important thing is to give full play to the important role of science and technology The author believes that the impact of SARS on human society is sudden, the SARS virus is not spread through agricultural products, and it can not affect the sale of corn in the international market in China, and the impact of SARS on the domestic market is also temporary Believe in our government and science, we will be able to overcome this disaster With the gradual recovery of feed production, China's corn market will continue to show a good momentum of development Hf8   Hf8