How will the agricultural product market change in the next ten years?

Under the epidemic, is the supply of food rations sufficient in my country? What is the development trend of major agricultural product markets in the next ten years? How will the international agricultural production and trade situation change? Recently, the 2022 China Agricultural Outlook Conference was held in Beiji.

The effective supply of grain is effectively guaranteed, and varieties are expected to be updated

The "Report" pointed out that, benefiting from the continuous development of agricultural policies, the sown area of ​​grain is expected to stabilize at more than 75 billion mu in the next 10 years, of which the area of ​​cereals will be stable at about 45 billion mu, the area of ​​rations will be stable at more than 800 million mu, and the area of ​​soybeans will be stable at more than 800 million .

In the next 10 years, the supply capacity of China's green and high-quality agricultural products will be significantly enhanc.

With the in-depth implementation of the seed industry revitalization action, grain varieties are expected to achieve a round of replacement, and the facilities and conditions will continue to be strengthen.

Rice: In the next 10 years, the overall production of rice will remain stable, the sown area will decrease slightly, the yield per unit will gradually increase, and the output of rice will be stable at more than 210 million to.

Wheat: In the next 10 years, the regional layout and quality structure of wheat production will continue to be optimiz.

Maize: In the next 10 years, the sown area of ​​maize will first decrease and then increase, and it is expected to stabilize at 650 million mu in the final stage; with the continuous optimization of maize planting models, the promotion and application of breeding technology and field management technology, the unit yield level will increase steadily, with an expected average annual growth of

Meat production and consumption continue to grow, product self-sufficiency continues to increase

The "Report" shows that meat production and consumption will increase in 2022, and price trends will be relatively mode.

In the next 10 years, with the transformation and upgrading of the industry, the development trend of industrial scale, intensification and intelligence will accelerate, and the production capacity of livestock and poultry will gradually increase, and the output will steadily increase to 985 million tons, but the growth rate will slow down and the average annual growth rate will increa.

Pork: Pork production in 2022 is expected to be 55 million tons, an increase of 9%, and slaughter volume is 694 million, an increase of 4%; pork imports are expected to be around 5 million tons, down 33% from the previous year; pork consumption and pork per capita The occupied volume will be at a historically high level, 591 million tons and 43 kilograms respectively, both up 6% over the previous year; the price of live pigs and pork will be sluggish in the first half of the year, and will gradually approach the normal price level in the second half of the ye.

In the next 10 years, the level of scale, the improvement of industrial concentration, the improvement of the industrial chain and the optimization of regulatory policies will improve the stability of pork supp.

Poultry meat: In 2022, due to the fact that the inventory of fast and large white-feather broiler breeders is at a historically high level, the production capacity reduction of yellow-feather broilers and white-feather ducks is basically in pla.

In the next 10 years, with the optimization of the layout of the meat and poultry industry, the increase in the proportion of integrated breeding and the improvement of breeding technology, the output will maintain a growth trend, but the growth rate will gradually decline, with an average annual growth of 2%, and it will reach 234 million tons in 203 The concept of public poultry meat consumption is becoming more and more mature, the product structure is continuously optimized, the processing technology is gradually improved, the supply of high-quality and differentiated products continues to increase, and the consumption of poultry meat continues to increa.

Beef and mutton: In 2021, driven by favorable policies such as "grain-to-feed" and policy insurance pilots for cattle and sheep, the output will continue to increa.

During the outlook period, with the advancement of the high-quality development of the cattle and sheep industry, the industrial quality and production level have been steadily improved, the degree of specialization and scale has been improved, and the industrial development has continued to impro.

The consumption upgrade of agricultural products has accelerated significantly, and the prices have generally shown an upward trend

The continuous increase in income and the expansion of animal husbandry production have led to a significant upgrade in household consumpti.

Trade in agricultural products will continue to remain active, and the volume of imports and exports will change significant.

Due to rigid constraints such as arable land and water resources, food supply and demand will remain in a tight balance in the medium and long te.

China will still be the main importer of many agricultural produc.

However, because the growth rate of consumption is lower than that of production, the import of most agricultural products shows a significant downward tre.

The import of rice and wheat is still mainly based on the adjustment of varieti.

The import of corn will drop sharply from the historical high in recent years, with an average annual decline of
The average annual decline of soybean imports will be reduced by
Grain imports will be reduced to 126 million tons; pork imports will be reduced to 2 million tons, fell by more than 50% during the outlook period, and edible vegetable oil imports fell by about 20% during the same peri.

The prices of agricultural products are generally on the rise, and agricultural products with a high degree of import dependence are greatly affected by fluctuations in the international mark.

Rising production costs such as labor and material inputs are an important support for the prices of agricultural produc.

The prices of rice and wheat will rise slightly, and at the same time, high-quality and high-quality prices will become more obvious; agricultural products such as corn, soybeans, cotton, sugar, and edible vegetable oil have strong linkages with the international mark.

It is easily affected by fluctuations in the international market; the prices of fresh agricultural products such as meat, eggs, milk, vegetables, fruits, aquatic products, e.

, are generally driven by cost and demand, and cyclical factors and emergencies are still the main reasons for price fluctuatio.