How long do people with untreated liver cancer survive? The predictors are these

Few studies have explored the natural history
of untreated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients 。 At the 2022 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases (AASLD 2022), Korean scholars conducted a retrospective cohort study in hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection endemic areas to investigate and analyze the natural history of untreated HCC patients and determine predictors of patient survival
。

Survival outcomes and contributing factors in untreated HCC patients: data from HBV-endemic areas

(Abstract number: 4407)

Research methods

This included 1045 patients with HCC who were not treated with HCC enrolled in the Korean Primary Liver Cancer Registry between 2008 and 2014, and follow-up ended
in December 2018.
The researchers then analyzed the clinical features
of patients who survived < 12 months or > 12 months.
Use the Cox proportional regression model to determine variables
related to patient survival.

Study results

The mean age at diagnosis of HCC among untreated HCC patients was 59.
6 years, most of whom had hepatitis B (52.
1%)
.
Most untreated patients (94.
2%) died during the observation period, with a median survival of 3.
0 months
.
The median survival time for different stages of Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) was as follows: BCLC-0/A stage 31.
0 months (n = 123), BCLC-B stage 10.
0 months (n = 96), BCLC-C stage 3.
0 months (n = 599), BCLC-D phase 1.
0 months (n = 227).

Univariate analysis showed BCLC stage, Child-Pugh grade, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status, ascites, encephalopathy, Tumor number, tumor size, and portal vein invasion were reliable predictors of overall survival (P < 0.
0001).

Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that untreated HCC patients with BCLC-D (HR = 4.
282, P < 0.
0001), MELD score ≥ 10 (HR = 1.
484, P < 0.
0001), and serum AFP levels ≥ 1000 ng/mL (HR = 1.
506, P < 0.
0001) were associated with
adverse survival outcomes.

Conclusion of the study

In this study, advanced BCLC, serum AFP level ≥1000 ng/mL, and MELD score ≥10 in patients with untreated HCC were significantly associated
with overall survival.

References: Kim J, Han JW, Jang JW, et al.
Factors associated with survival outcomes in patients with untreated hepatocellular carcinoma: a nationwide data from HBV-endemic area.
AASLD 2022.
Abrasts 4407.