How far can the domestic corn market go

Introduction: Since the second half of 2001, the main corn producing areas in China have experienced a general fall of pleasant rain, and the growth of corn has been significantly improved The market's psychological expectation for production reduction has been greatly weakened, and the promotion of price is not as strong as in the past Therefore, in order to meet the challenges of entering WTO and make room for new grain, the grain departments at all levels have taken corresponding measures to effectively reduce inventory and bring pressure to the market, In addition, the competent grain Department of Jilin Province, the production area, ordered that the storage and receiving enterprises must sell nearly 2 million tons of inventory before October 1, and increase the ex warehouse subsidies of the enterprises This action increased the amount of corn available in the market, and the domestic regions continued to hold selling activities of stale grain, and the price fell again and again By December, the price of Jilin Province, the production area, had dropped to the lowest point of 90 tons per year At the price of 0 yuan, the prices of all parts of the market have also declined to varying degrees So far, the decline of the domestic corn market has lasted for half a year In recent years, due to the influence of seasonal factors, feed consumption has entered the peak season, and corn demand has increased significantly In addition, with the help of policy, the domestic corn market price has risen back in varying degrees, which is gratifying, but how long the rising trend can be maintained should be seriously concerned In this regard, the author analyzes from the following aspects: As in previous years, after the listing of new corn in North China and Huang Huai area, the export capacity of corn in North China has been greatly weakened Most of the domestic regions are going to North China and Huang Huai area to purchase grain, with a large number of self-sale and export shipments The available quantity of real estate corn can only be maintained until March to April of the next year Since the acquisition of new corn in Northeast China will start in the middle and late November, it will arrive in November From March to April of the year, the export quantity of corn in Northeast China will be affected by the centralized acquisition and remain at a low level During this period, the relatively low purchase price of corn in Guannei and the short transportation distance with the main selling area in the South will also restrain the export of corn in Northeast China It is predicted that during February to March 2002, when corn prices in North China and Huang Huai Region rose, corn purchase in Northeast China will still be in the peak period At this time, it is difficult to increase the quantity of foreign transportation, so corn prices in the customs will rebound as a whole It is predicted that during March April 2002, when the price of corn rose in East China and South China, although the peak of corn purchase in Northeast China was basically over, due to the high water content of corn, drying and drying of tide grain will become the focus of work of northeast grain department at this time, and the quantity of outward transportation is still difficult to increase significantly, so the price of corn in South China will rebound as a whole After the overall rebound of corn prices in Guannei and South China, the market prices in Northeast China will finally rebound It is expected that during April May 2002, the export quantity of corn in Northeast China will begin to increase Under the situation that the corn price in Inner Shaanxi and southern China has risen as a whole, the export price and port closing price of corn in Northeast China will rise accordingly Generally speaking, although the price recovery of corn in Northeast China may occur at the latest among the three major production and marketing regions, only when the price of corn in Northeast China rises, will the price of corn in Inner Shaanxi and southern China finally rise, thus completing the whole process of domestic corn price recovery It is expected that from June to July 2001, the import quantity of corn in China will begin to increase for the first time after China's accession to the WTO Since then, the change of domestic corn price trend will begin to be more affected by the international market According to the comprehensive analysis, the price of domestic corn is expected to continue to rise However, 2002 is the first year of China 's accession to the WTO Due to the cancellation of high subsidies, the export is facing difficulties, while the import is facing a high number of quotas In contrast, the import quantity of China will increase significantly, which will make the situation that the domestic corn market was originally oversupplied even more Severe, the pressure on the domestic market is inevitable, which makes our prediction of the market with a lot of uncertainty Summary: on the premise that the imported corn has no substantial pressure on the market and the emergency does not affect the trend of domestic corn market, the price rise of corn is expected to continue until May June this year, but due to the impact of WTO on the market atmosphere, the price rise will not be too large On the contrary, after the Spring Festival, the demand for corn will decline as in previous years, and the supporting role for market prices will be weakened, and the market trend after the festival will be unpredictable (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: