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On the last trading day before the holiday, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate downward, and recently continued to be affected by dual control and tight power, and the release of production capacity was seriously disturbed, but at the same time, it also suppressed downstream demand, superimposed on the accumulation of aluminum prices, and the trend of aluminum prices was weak
.
On the supply side, in terms of production, aluminum production is expected to be 9.
56 million tons in the fourth quarter, down 2% year-on-year, and aluminum output for the whole year is 38.
63 million tons, up 4.
1% year-on-year; On the import side, the net import of aluminum ingots from January to July was 923,000 tons, and the net import was expected to be 1.
13 million tons for the whole year; in terms of storage, it is expected to dump 490,000 tons from June to December; and the annual aluminum supply was 40.
25 million tons
.
In terms of demand, the growth rate of overseas demand is expected to slow down, and the current aluminum exports will remain at a relatively high level, and it is expected to maintain inertia in the short term; Domestically, the inertia of real estate completions is still there, short-term demand is still there, the demand for industrial materials such as photovoltaics and automobiles has maintained growth, while rail transit, power transmission and transformation are facing a certain reduction
.
It is expected that the consumption increase in the fourth quarter will be around 10 million tons, with a growth rate of about 1%; In 2021, the annual consumption was 40.
52 million tons, an increase of 6%.
The future market expects that the supply side will be affected by the "carbon neutrality", "carbon peaking" and dual control policies on energy consumption, and the uncertainty of resuming production in Yunnan, Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and Shaanxi is high.
In the short term, under the superposition of high cost factors, the high-level stable operation situation is the mainstay
.
