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The USDA 's "2022 Agricultural Outlook Report" released in February this year forecasts the development trend of global agriculture in the next ten years (to 2031), covering agricultural products , agricultural products trade and agricultural comprehensive indicators such as farm income and many other aspects.
It is premised on specific assumptions, including the agreed-upon macroeconomic development outlook (forecast until August 2021), the USDA global agricultural supply and demand situation outlook (data from the October 2021 WASDE report), current U.S.
policies (such as " The Agriculture Enhancement Act of 2018) and current international agreements remain in effect
.
For the forecast of soybean supply and demand inthe next ten years (market year 2022-2031) , please refer to the following.
01
Macroeconomics and International Trade
The International Monetary Fund said in the World Economic Outlook released in January this year that the global economic situation in 2022 is more fragile than previously expected, and the recovery of the global economy faces multiple challenges.
The global economy is expected to grow by 4. 4%
.
Among the major economies, the U.S.
economy is expected to grow by 4.0% and 2.6% this year and next, while the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 4.8% and 5.2%, respectively
.
According to the USDA Agricultural Outlook report, the real average annual growth rate of global GDP in the next ten years will be 3.1%, and the average annual growth rate of developing countries and developed countries will be 4.3% and 2.0% respectively
.
The global economy is expected to grow by 4. 4%
.
Among the major economies, the U.S.
economy is expected to grow by 4.0% and 2.6% this year and next, while the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 4.8% and 5.2%, respectively
.
According to the USDA Agricultural Outlook report, the real average annual growth rate of global GDP in the next ten years will be 3.1%, and the average annual growth rate of developing countries and developed countries will be 4.3% and 2.0% respectively
.
Since most Chinese imports come from multiple sources, tariffs on U.S.
products will not necessarily affect China's overall import demand
.
However, driven by the first phase of the China-US economic and trade agreement (expiring on January 15, 2022), the US soybean trade with China has resumed, reaching 32.3 million tons in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 25.0% (China Customs data)
.
In the next 10 years, with the advancement of urbanization in China and the increase of per capita disposable income, the living standards of consumers will continue to improve, and the continuous growth of consumption demand for edible oil and livestock and poultry products will continue to promote the growth of soybean consumption.
It is expected that soybean imports will continue to grow.
will also increase
products will not necessarily affect China's overall import demand
.
However, driven by the first phase of the China-US economic and trade agreement (expiring on January 15, 2022), the US soybean trade with China has resumed, reaching 32.3 million tons in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 25.0% (China Customs data)
.
In the next 10 years, with the advancement of urbanization in China and the increase of per capita disposable income, the living standards of consumers will continue to improve, and the continuous growth of consumption demand for edible oil and livestock and poultry products will continue to promote the growth of soybean consumption.
It is expected that soybean imports will continue to grow.
will also increase
02
Overview of U.S.
soybean domestic consumption and export demand in the 2021-2031 market year
soybean domestic consumption and export demand in the 2021-2031 market year
Review and Prospect of U.S.
Soybean Domestic Supply, Demand and Export from 2001 to 2031
Soybean Domestic Supply, Demand and Export from 2001 to 2031
Planting area
U.S.
soybean acreage is expected to remain high
.
The 2021/22 marketing year is maintained at nearly 88 million acres, as soybean prices and net profits are higher than in the previous 5-7 years, and the acreage rebounded sharply from the previous two years
.
soybean acreage is expected to remain high
.
The 2021/22 marketing year is maintained at nearly 88 million acres, as soybean prices and net profits are higher than in the previous 5-7 years, and the acreage rebounded sharply from the previous two years
.
soybean price
soybean prices have increased since the 2020/21 marketing year, with strong crush growth and relatively high exports, and forecast ending stocks that are low relative to use
.
Higher nominal soybean prices in recent years will gradually decline as production increases outpace increases in use
.
domestic consumption
domestic soybean crush is expected to continue rising
.
Because of its steady growth in domestic demand for soybean meal and soybean oil, this reflects that feed prices are expected to remain at a medium level, the production capacity of the livestock and poultry industry will continue to increase, and the consumption demand of soybean oil in clean energy such as biofuels will continue to grow
.
soybean export
Faced with strong competition from South America, the U.S.
soybean and soybean meal share of global exports is expected to decline to about 27% and 17%, respectively
.
The share of U.S.
soybeans and soybean meal in the 2020/21 and 2021/22 market years is approximately 33% and 19%, respectively
.
In the 2020/21 marketing year, U.S.
soybean exports have grown steadily from a previous sharp decline, driven by a rebound in global consumption, especially in China
.
soybean and soybean meal share of global exports is expected to decline to about 27% and 17%, respectively
.
The share of U.S.
soybeans and soybean meal in the 2020/21 and 2021/22 market years is approximately 33% and 19%, respectively
.
In the 2020/21 marketing year, U.S.
soybean exports have grown steadily from a previous sharp decline, driven by a rebound in global consumption, especially in China
.
03
Forecast of global supply and demand trends of soybeans and soybean products (market year 2022/23-2031/32)
Global soybean production is expected to increase by 19.6%.
Brazil, Argentina and the United States will account for 85.0% of the growth in soybean production, of which Brazil will account for 60.0% of the increase in soybean production
.
Expanding the planting area is the main reason for the increase in soybean production, and Brazil is the main country that expands the planting area and promotes the increase in soybean production
.
Brazil, Argentina and the United States will account for 85.0% of the growth in soybean production, of which Brazil will account for 60.0% of the increase in soybean production
.
Expanding the planting area is the main reason for the increase in soybean production, and Brazil is the main country that expands the planting area and promotes the increase in soybean production
.
Global soybean imports are expected to increase by 29.0%
.
Among them, China accounted for about 72.0%
.
Brazil will meet 83.0% of the increase in global soybean demand, followed by the United States, other South American countries and Canada
.
The global soybean meal import demand will increase by 15.3%, mainly to meet the needs of the European Union, the world's largest soybean meal importer, Southeast Asia, Latin America and other countries or regions
.
Argentina, Brazil and the United States remain major soybean meal exporters
.
Mainly driven by the import demand of soybean oil from India and other developing countries, the world's largest soybean oil importer, the global soybean oil import volume will increase by 26.5%
.
Argentina's soybean oil exports are nearly able to meet the growing demand for all soybean oil imports
.
.
Among them, China accounted for about 72.0%
.
Brazil will meet 83.0% of the increase in global soybean demand, followed by the United States, other South American countries and Canada
.
The global soybean meal import demand will increase by 15.3%, mainly to meet the needs of the European Union, the world's largest soybean meal importer, Southeast Asia, Latin America and other countries or regions
.
Argentina, Brazil and the United States remain major soybean meal exporters
.
Mainly driven by the import demand of soybean oil from India and other developing countries, the world's largest soybean oil importer, the global soybean oil import volume will increase by 26.5%
.
Argentina's soybean oil exports are nearly able to meet the growing demand for all soybean oil imports
.
The total global demand for soybean meal is expected to grow by 22.6%, and the growth rate of demand for soybean meal in developing countries at 29.1% will far exceed the 8.0% in developed countries
.
Poultry consumption and production grew strongly in some countries and regions, including the Middle East, North Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America, as did soybean meal feed demand
.
In the global soybean meal consumption in 2020, China, Brazil, the United States and the European Union and other major livestock and poultry industry countries and regions will account for 61.8% of the total consumption
.
Among them, after China recovered from African swine fever, the demand for soybean meal increased by nearly 38.0%, showing a strong growth trend
.
.
Poultry consumption and production grew strongly in some countries and regions, including the Middle East, North Africa, Southeast Asia and Latin America, as did soybean meal feed demand
.
In the global soybean meal consumption in 2020, China, Brazil, the United States and the European Union and other major livestock and poultry industry countries and regions will account for 61.8% of the total consumption
.
Among them, after China recovered from African swine fever, the demand for soybean meal increased by nearly 38.0%, showing a strong growth trend
.
Global soybean oil use is expected to grow by 27.5%
.
Among them, the proportion of soybean oil usage in China and India will be 72.5%
.
The average growth rate of soybean oil consumption in Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East will be close to 23.0%
.
In the continuously growing global soybean crush, China's soybean crush will account for 51.0%, and Argentina, Brazil and the United States' soybean crush will account for 32.6%
.
.
Among them, the proportion of soybean oil usage in China and India will be 72.5%
.
The average growth rate of soybean oil consumption in Southeast Asia, Africa and the Middle East will be close to 23.0%
.
In the continuously growing global soybean crush, China's soybean crush will account for 51.0%, and Argentina, Brazil and the United States' soybean crush will account for 32.6%
.
04
Global soybean trade outlook (market year 2022/23-2031/32)
Review and Prospect of Global Soybean Imports from 2001 to 2031
Global soybean imports will climb 51.1 million tonnes (up 29%) to 227.5 million tonnes
.
.
Chinese demand for soybeans will drive continued growth in soybean trade:
China's soybean imports are expected to increase from 104.9 million tons in 2022/23 to 141.6 million tons in 2031/32, a growth rate of 3%-4% per annum; vegetable oil consumption remains strong
.
After the African swine fever epidemic subsided in the 2019/20 marketing year, the demand for soybean meal is also growing rapidly as the pig inventory gradually recovers and the production of poultry and eggs continues to grow
.
.
After the African swine fever epidemic subsided in the 2019/20 marketing year, the demand for soybean meal is also growing rapidly as the pig inventory gradually recovers and the production of poultry and eggs continues to grow
.
Other major importing countries and regions will also achieve growth or maintain stable development:
Many countries in North Africa and the Middle East are expected to increase soybean imports by more than 26.0% to more than 17 million tons
.
Due to its extremely low soybean production, it needs to be imported to meet the growing demand for feed
.
.
Due to its extremely low soybean production, it needs to be imported to meet the growing demand for feed
.
EU soybean imports are expected to remain stable at 15 million tonnes
.
Since 2017/18, its internal grain prices have been lower, feed use of grain and rapeseed meal has increased, and soybean meal imports have been largely stable
.
.
Since 2017/18, its internal grain prices have been lower, feed use of grain and rapeseed meal has increased, and soybean meal imports have been largely stable
.
Soybean imports in East Asia (Japan, Korea, Taiwan) are forecast to increase to 8 million tonnes, up from 7.4 million tonnes in the 2022/23 marketing year
.
.
Mexico's soybean imports are expected to increase by 22.6% to 7.8 million tonnes, driven by rising livestock production and increased demand for soybean oil
.
.
Other Asian countries such as Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan will see growth in soybean imports
.
.
Review and Prospect of Global Soybean Export from 2001 to 2031
Exports from the United States, Brazil and Argentina will account for 90 percent of global soybean trade
.
.
The share of U.S.soybeans in global soybean exports is expected to decline to 27.2% from about 33.0% in the 2022/23 marketing year, with exports rising to 61.9 million tons from 58.2 million
.
.
Brazil's soybean exports are forecast to rise by 42.6 million tonnes, or 45.6%, to 136.1 million tonnes
.
Because of the high economic benefits of soybean planting in most areas, the planting area will continue to expand, and the annual growth rate will exceed 2.0%
.
.
Because of the high economic benefits of soybean planting in most areas, the planting area will continue to expand, and the annual growth rate will exceed 2.0%
.
Argentine soybean exports are expected to increase by about 16.0% to 6.7 million tons, mainly to China
.
Its exports of soybeans will still lag far behind Brazil and the United States as most of the soybeans will still be available for domestic processing
.
.
Its exports of soybeans will still lag far behind Brazil and the United States as most of the soybeans will still be available for domestic processing
.
It is expected that other South American countries (Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia, etc.) will also increase their total soybean exports by about 22.7% to 11.5 million tons by expanding soybean planting areas, contributing 2.1 million tons to global soybean exports
.
.
05
Global Soybean Meal Trade Outlook (Market Year 2022/23-2031/32)
Review and prospect of global soybean meal imports from 2001 to 2031
Global soybean meal imports are expected to climb 15.2% to 80.2 million tonnes
.
The scale of livestock and poultry breeding continues to expand, and the proportion of soybean meal used in modern breeding methods will increase, which will drive the rapid growth of market demand
.
.
The scale of livestock and poultry breeding continues to expand, and the proportion of soybean meal used in modern breeding methods will increase, which will drive the rapid growth of market demand
.
The EU is forecast to remain the world's largest importer of soybean meal, with imports of soybean meal expected to rise 4.9% to 17.8 million tonnes
.
Due to the consideration of nutritional value, the addition of rapeseed meal in some feeds will be limited, which will support the consumption demand of soybean meal in the breeding industry
.
.
Due to the consideration of nutritional value, the addition of rapeseed meal in some feeds will be limited, which will support the consumption demand of soybean meal in the breeding industry
.
The South American country's annual soybean meal imports will increase by 19.8% to 7.3 million tons
.
The 2022/23 market year is expected to be 6.1 million tonnes
.
.
The 2022/23 market year is expected to be 6.1 million tonnes
.
Soymeal imports by North African and Middle Eastern countries will increase by 1.2 million tons, accounting for 12.0% of the increase in global soymeal trade
.
Southeast Asia, Latin America, North Africa and the Middle East will be the largest import markets for soybean meal due to increasing feed demand and limited domestic capacity to expand oilseed production
.
.
Southeast Asia, Latin America, North Africa and the Middle East will be the largest import markets for soybean meal due to increasing feed demand and limited domestic capacity to expand oilseed production
.
Total soybean meal imports in Southeast Asia will account for 35.4% of the expected growth in global soybean meal trade
.
.
Review and Prospect of Global Soybean Meal Exports from 2001 to 2031
Argentina, Brazil and the U.S.together will account for as much as 87 percent of soybean meal exports
.
.
The share of U.S.
soybean meal in global exports is expected to fall to about 16.8 percent, down from about 19 percent in the 2022/23 marketing year
.
After the 2024/25 marketing year, U.S.
soybean meal exports will stabilize at around 13.5 million tons
.
soybean meal in global exports is expected to fall to about 16.8 percent, down from about 19 percent in the 2022/23 marketing year
.
After the 2024/25 marketing year, U.S.
soybean meal exports will stabilize at around 13.5 million tons
.
Argentine soybean meal exports are expected to rise by 5.6 million tons to 34.5 million tons
.
.
Brazil's soybean meal exports are expected to increase by about 26.9% to 21.6 million tonnes, slightly up from about 24.5% in the 2022/23 marketing year
.
.
06
Global Soybean Oil Trade Outlook (Market Year 2022/23-2031/32)
Review and Prospect of Global Soybean Oil Imports from 2001 to 2031
Global soybean oil imports are expected to rise by about 13.6% to 14.1 million tonnes
.
Despite the dual demand from food and industry, the global trade in vegetable oils is still dominated by palm oil
.
Therefore, the growth of soybean oil trade still depends on the competition with palm oil market share
.
.
Despite the dual demand from food and industry, the global trade in vegetable oils is still dominated by palm oil
.
Therefore, the growth of soybean oil trade still depends on the competition with palm oil market share
.
India's soybean oil imports are expected to rise by about 26.5% to 4.8 million tonnes.
Although palm oil accounts for the largest share of vegetable oil imports, India is also the world's number one importer of soybean oil.
This is mainly due to its increased demand for edible oils, low yields and limited expansion potential of domestic oilseed acreage, thus limiting the growth of oilseed production.
Soybean oil imports to South America are forecast to increase slightly to 1.6 million tonnes, with Peru, Colombia and Venezuela as the main importers.
China's soybean oil imports are expected to fall to 1.1 million tonnes.
It will remain at 1.2 million tonnes until the 2027/28 marketing year.
It will remain at 1.2 million tonnes until the 2027/28 marketing year.
Imports in Southeast Asia are forecast to increase by 114,000 tonnes to 390,000 tonnes.
Population and income growth in North Africa, the Middle East and Latin America will also drive soyoil demand and imports.
Review and Prospect of Global Soybean Oil Exports from 2001 to 2031
It is estimated that Argentina, the United States, the European Union and Brazil will account for about 74% of the total global soybean oil exports.
Argentine, US and EU soybean oil exports will account for 52%, 8% and 7% of the global total, respectively.
Argentina's soybean oil exports are expected to climb to 7.4 million tonnes, up 20.0% from the 2022/23 marketing year.
The increase in its soybean production has contributed to the growth of oil production capacity, but the domestic soybean oil market is limited in size.
The United States is expected to account for 7.7% of the global soybean oil export market, with exports reaching 1 million tons, higher than the low export volume in recent years.
As the demand for soybean oil in the biofuel industry continues to grow, more soybean oil will be put into domestic biofuel production.
EU soybean oil exports are expected to edge up to 970,000 tonnes, but its market share in global soybean oil exports will fall to 6.9%, down from 7.1% in recent years.
Brazil's soybean oil exports are expected to fall to 930,000 tons, down from 1.4 million tons in the 2022/23 marketing year, putting more soybean oil into domestic biofuel production.
07
China is a major importer of various commodities (market years 2020/21 and 2031/32)
It is expected that China's soybean imports will account for 62% of the global import market, up from 60% in the 2020/21 marketing year.
But the share of soybean oil imports will fall to 8%, no longer the double-digit level for the 2020/21 marketing year.
China will still account for a significant share of commodity imports, including soybeans, with strong market demand, but its production capacity is limited by land and water resources.
But the share of soybean oil imports will fall to 8%, no longer the double-digit level for the 2020/21 marketing year.
China will still account for a significant share of commodity imports, including soybeans, with strong market demand, but its production capacity is limited by land and water resources.
