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Although the conflict between Russia and Ukraine continued, Russia continued to export a large amount of wheat by virtue of its discount advantage, which reduced the risk premium of wheat prices; at the same time, the sluggish export sales of U.
S.
wheat and the strengthening of the dollar exchange rate also put pressure on U.
S.
wheat prices; however, the U.
S.
plains Drought has kept winter wheat conditions at historically low levels, supporting wheat prices
.
On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), July soft red winter wheat futures settled at around $10.
7525 a bushel on Friday, down 29.
25 cents, or 2.
7%, from a week ago
.
July hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around $11.
495 a bushel, down 7.
75 cents, or 0.
7%, from a week ago
.
July hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around $11.
6275 a bushel, up 16 cents, or 1.
4%, from a week ago
.
Euronext's September 2022 milling wheat futures traded at around €366.
75/tonne, unchanged from a week ago
.
Argentine wheat spot offers were at $439/ton, up $29 or 7.
1% from a week ago
.
The U.
S.
dollar index closed at 101.
12 on Friday, up 0.
8% from a week earlier and has gained 5.
4% so far this year
.
7525 a bushel on Friday, down 29.
25 cents, or 2.
7%, from a week ago
.
July hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around $11.
495 a bushel, down 7.
75 cents, or 0.
7%, from a week ago
.
July hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around $11.
6275 a bushel, up 16 cents, or 1.
4%, from a week ago
.
Euronext's September 2022 milling wheat futures traded at around €366.
75/tonne, unchanged from a week ago
.
Argentine wheat spot offers were at $439/ton, up $29 or 7.
1% from a week ago
.
The U.
S.
dollar index closed at 101.
12 on Friday, up 0.
8% from a week earlier and has gained 5.
4% so far this year
.
You have sanctions, I have discounts, Russian wheat exports jumped sharply in April
Despite Russia being sanctioned by the West and some financial institutions and insurance companies refusing to provide payment facilities for Russian wheat exports, shipment data on Wednesday (April 20) showed that Russian wheat exports in April may have tripled from a year earlier.
That's 23% higher than the average for the same period over the past five years
.
Russia has exported 3.
15 million tons of wheat so far in April, including 456,800 tons scheduled for shipment later this month, compared with 801,900 tons in April last year
.
Turkey and Iran were the main declared destinations for Russian wheat exports in April, at 901,600 and 588,200 tonnes, respectively
.
In addition, the export destination of the 1.
4 million tons of milling wheat lined up at Russian ports in April was unknown, accounting for 45% of total exports, significantly higher than the 29% unknown destination in April last year, and the same period in the past five years.
This proportion is only 3% on average
.
Russian wheat is increasingly attractive to buyers as global wheat prices remain high and Russian exporters offer discounts
.
That's 23% higher than the average for the same period over the past five years
.
Russia has exported 3.
15 million tons of wheat so far in April, including 456,800 tons scheduled for shipment later this month, compared with 801,900 tons in April last year
.
Turkey and Iran were the main declared destinations for Russian wheat exports in April, at 901,600 and 588,200 tonnes, respectively
.
In addition, the export destination of the 1.
4 million tons of milling wheat lined up at Russian ports in April was unknown, accounting for 45% of total exports, significantly higher than the 29% unknown destination in April last year, and the same period in the past five years.
This proportion is only 3% on average
.
Russian wheat is increasingly attractive to buyers as global wheat prices remain high and Russian exporters offer discounts
.
On April 19, the FOB quotation of Russian 12.
5% protein milling wheat at the Novorossiysk port was 389.
50 US dollars / ton, which was 144.
00 US dollars / ton higher than the same period last year, but cheaper than competitors' prices a lot
.
On the same day, the spot price of Romanian 12.
5% protein wheat at ports such as Constanta/Varna/Burgas was about $425/ton
.
Russian wheat is also more competitively priced at the International Wheat Tenders
.
Egypt's General Administration of General Commodities Supply (GASC) bought a total of 350,000 tons of French, Bulgarian and Russian wheat in a tender on April 13, for shipment from May to June, of which Russian wheat arrived in Egypt at a CNF price of $460 / ton, 20 US dollars / ton cheaper than Bulgarian wheat, 34.
25 US dollars / ton cheaper than French wheat
.
5% protein milling wheat at the Novorossiysk port was 389.
50 US dollars / ton, which was 144.
00 US dollars / ton higher than the same period last year, but cheaper than competitors' prices a lot
.
On the same day, the spot price of Romanian 12.
5% protein wheat at ports such as Constanta/Varna/Burgas was about $425/ton
.
Russian wheat is also more competitively priced at the International Wheat Tenders
.
Egypt's General Administration of General Commodities Supply (GASC) bought a total of 350,000 tons of French, Bulgarian and Russian wheat in a tender on April 13, for shipment from May to June, of which Russian wheat arrived in Egypt at a CNF price of $460 / ton, 20 US dollars / ton cheaper than Bulgarian wheat, 34.
25 US dollars / ton cheaper than French wheat
.
In addition, Russia's 2021/22 wheat ending stocks are estimated at 13 million tons, an 11-year high, which also prompted Russian exporters to accelerate sales
.
Market participants say global demand for Russian milling wheat remains high
.
Russian exporters have largely managed to resolve logistics and payment diversions caused by Western sanctions since the end of February, and are now exporting wheat from the Russian side of the Black Sea and ports on the Sea of Azov, consultancy SovEcon said
.
While insurance premiums for ships entering Russian ports have risen by $4 to $6 a ton since Feb.
24, the cost is easily absorbed by the larger rise in wheat prices
.
In fact, this year's exports could have been higher had it not been for the fact that Russia set a wheat export quota by June 30
.
It is estimated that 3 million tons of Russian wheat could still be exported within the quota in May and June
.
.
Market participants say global demand for Russian milling wheat remains high
.
Russian exporters have largely managed to resolve logistics and payment diversions caused by Western sanctions since the end of February, and are now exporting wheat from the Russian side of the Black Sea and ports on the Sea of Azov, consultancy SovEcon said
.
While insurance premiums for ships entering Russian ports have risen by $4 to $6 a ton since Feb.
24, the cost is easily absorbed by the larger rise in wheat prices
.
In fact, this year's exports could have been higher had it not been for the fact that Russia set a wheat export quota by June 30
.
It is estimated that 3 million tons of Russian wheat could still be exported within the quota in May and June
.
Russia's wheat output raised to record
Consultancy Sovecon on April 21 raised its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2022/23 by 900,000 tonnes to a record 87.
4 million tonnes, up from an earlier forecast of 86.
5 million tonnes and above the 2021 output of 76 million tonnes
.
Production is raised because of good crop conditions
.
The weather in recent months has been favorable for winter wheat, with fewer winter freezes than usual, more than offsetting a 5% reduction in plantings last fall
.
4 million tonnes, up from an earlier forecast of 86.
5 million tonnes and above the 2021 output of 76 million tonnes
.
Production is raised because of good crop conditions
.
The weather in recent months has been favorable for winter wheat, with fewer winter freezes than usual, more than offsetting a 5% reduction in plantings last fall
.
On the same day, consultancy IKAR raised its forecast for Russian wheat production in 2022 by 500,000 tons to 83.
5 million tons
.
IKAR said the upward revision was quite conservative, as winter wheat conditions in Europe and Russia are currently very good
.
But considering the continuous dry and dry weather in southern Russia in the past two years, it is better to be cautious now
.
5 million tons
.
IKAR said the upward revision was quite conservative, as winter wheat conditions in Europe and Russia are currently very good
.
But considering the continuous dry and dry weather in southern Russia in the past two years, it is better to be cautious now
.
Another analyst, Agritel, said Russia's 2022/23 winter wheat crop is in excellent condition
.
Milling wheat production next year is conservatively estimated at 85 million tons; if yields are near record highs, production could be close to 90 million tons, a record high
.
.
Milling wheat production next year is conservatively estimated at 85 million tons; if yields are near record highs, production could be close to 90 million tons, a record high
.
Positive outlook for Russian wheat exports in 2022/23
Amid tight supplies from other wheat-producing countries and rising prices, Russia's ample supply of high-quality wheat could further boost the country's exports in 2022/23, even in the face of the threat of sanctions
.
Global importers will have to buy wheat amid high global prices, and more competitively priced Russian wheat will be more attractive
.
Consultancy SovEcon on April 21 expected Russian wheat exports to reach 41 million tonnes in 2022/23, up from 33.
9 million tonnes in the current season
.
Russia is set to expand exports in the new year that starts in July, with prospects for new wheat production expected to hit a record high due to high wheat carryover stocks in southern Russia and export quotas expiring at the end of June
.
This forecast is based on the fact that the West will not directly target Russian grain exports and military activity in the Black Sea region will not be significantly escalated
.
Other factors that could affect exports are government regulation, the report said
.
The Russian government is expected to set grain quotas again in the second half of 2022/23, which are estimated to be close to export potential
.
.
Global importers will have to buy wheat amid high global prices, and more competitively priced Russian wheat will be more attractive
.
Consultancy SovEcon on April 21 expected Russian wheat exports to reach 41 million tonnes in 2022/23, up from 33.
9 million tonnes in the current season
.
Russia is set to expand exports in the new year that starts in July, with prospects for new wheat production expected to hit a record high due to high wheat carryover stocks in southern Russia and export quotas expiring at the end of June
.
This forecast is based on the fact that the West will not directly target Russian grain exports and military activity in the Black Sea region will not be significantly escalated
.
Other factors that could affect exports are government regulation, the report said
.
The Russian government is expected to set grain quotas again in the second half of 2022/23, which are estimated to be close to export potential
.
Ukrainian wheat export outlook uncertain
If Russia and Ukraine reach a ceasefire before the summer, Ukraine will rapidly increase wheat exports from southern ports in order to take advantage of high prices to earn foreign currency
.
If the conflict persists and Ukrainian ports remain closed, some of the demand will go to Russia
.
But if a peace deal is reached, Ukraine will soon begin to resume exports from Black Sea ports, in which case Ukraine could export 20 million tonnes of wheat in 2022/23
.
.
If the conflict persists and Ukrainian ports remain closed, some of the demand will go to Russia
.
But if a peace deal is reached, Ukraine will soon begin to resume exports from Black Sea ports, in which case Ukraine could export 20 million tonnes of wheat in 2022/23
.
U.
S.
wheat crop in worst condition in 26 years
S.
wheat crop in worst condition in 26 years
The state of the U.
S.
winter wheat crop is a concern for global supplies and prices in 2022/23, as the U.
S.
winter wheat crop is currently rated at its worst level in 26 years
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed that 30 percent of winter wheat was rated excellent as of April 12, down from 32 percent last week and well below 53 percent a year earlier, the worst level since 1996
.
The weather forecast shows that the weather in the winter wheat producing areas of the Great Plains of the United States is still dry, which continues to threaten the growth of wheat
.
About 69 percent of the U.
S.
winter wheat crop is located in arid regions
.
S.
winter wheat crop is a concern for global supplies and prices in 2022/23, as the U.
S.
winter wheat crop is currently rated at its worst level in 26 years
.
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report showed that 30 percent of winter wheat was rated excellent as of April 12, down from 32 percent last week and well below 53 percent a year earlier, the worst level since 1996
.
The weather forecast shows that the weather in the winter wheat producing areas of the Great Plains of the United States is still dry, which continues to threaten the growth of wheat
.
About 69 percent of the U.
S.
winter wheat crop is located in arid regions
.
U.
S.
wheat uncompetitive in international markets
S.
wheat uncompetitive in international markets
The U.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows net U.
S.
wheat sales for the 2021/22 season of 26,300 tons for the week ended April 14, 2022, a new annual low, 73% lower than last week and lower than the four-week average 79%
.
With one and a half months left until the end of the 2021/22 season, total U.
S.
wheat export sales totaled 19.
26 million tons, down 24% year-on-year and equivalent to 90% of the annual export target
.
At present, the US wheat is still the highest price in the international market, which discourages buyers
.
As of April 20, the quotation of hard red winter wheat in the United States for the recent shipments was US$540 per ton, and the quotation of soft red winter wheat was US$444 per ton; the quotation of wheat in the Upper River area of Argentina was US$439 per ton, and the quotation of first-class wheat in the port of Rouen, France The offer is $442
.
The cheapest price of wheat in Russia is currently around $370
.
S.
Department of Agriculture's weekly export sales report shows net U.
S.
wheat sales for the 2021/22 season of 26,300 tons for the week ended April 14, 2022, a new annual low, 73% lower than last week and lower than the four-week average 79%
.
With one and a half months left until the end of the 2021/22 season, total U.
S.
wheat export sales totaled 19.
26 million tons, down 24% year-on-year and equivalent to 90% of the annual export target
.
At present, the US wheat is still the highest price in the international market, which discourages buyers
.
As of April 20, the quotation of hard red winter wheat in the United States for the recent shipments was US$540 per ton, and the quotation of soft red winter wheat was US$444 per ton; the quotation of wheat in the Upper River area of Argentina was US$439 per ton, and the quotation of first-class wheat in the port of Rouen, France The offer is $442
.
The cheapest price of wheat in Russia is currently around $370
.
Argentina wheat production could fall by as much as 25%
April 21, April 21 Wheat production in Argentina's central growing region may fall by 25 percent in 2022/23 as dry weather and rising costs reduce plantings and yields, the Rosario Grain Exchange said on Thursday
.
The report pointed out that due to the higher cost of fertilizers, the use of fertilizers will be reduced
.
Wheat production in the main central producing areas is forecast at 5.
8 million tonnes, down from 7.
8 million tonnes in 2021/22 due to a 10% reduction in planted area and a 20% reduction in fertilizer use
.
It’s worth mentioning that Rosario also expects the La Niña weather pattern to continue into winter and possibly into next spring
.
As temperatures rise, soil moisture will decrease
.
.
The report pointed out that due to the higher cost of fertilizers, the use of fertilizers will be reduced
.
Wheat production in the main central producing areas is forecast at 5.
8 million tonnes, down from 7.
8 million tonnes in 2021/22 due to a 10% reduction in planted area and a 20% reduction in fertilizer use
.
It’s worth mentioning that Rosario also expects the La Niña weather pattern to continue into winter and possibly into next spring
.
As temperatures rise, soil moisture will decrease
.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said Argentina's wheat planting area in 2022/23 was around 6.
5 million hectares, down from a revised 6.
7 million hectares in the previous year, due to higher fertilizer prices and higher input costs, making barley more profitable.
high, and domestic policy uncertainty
.
5 million hectares, down from a revised 6.
7 million hectares in the previous year, due to higher fertilizer prices and higher input costs, making barley more profitable.
high, and domestic policy uncertainty
.
