Global wheat market: Wheat prices rise on weather worries in major wheat producing countries

Foreign media May 15 news: Global wheat prices continued to risein the week ended May 13, 2022, as weather problems in several major wheat-producing countries increased concerns about tight wheat suppli.
India's abrupt halt to wheat exports over the weekend will further increase the risk premium for wheat pric.

 

　　July soft red winter wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) settled at around $1775 a bushel on Friday, up 69 cents, or 2%, from a week a.

July hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Futures Exchange (KCBT) settled at around $182 a bushel, up 115 cents, or 5%, from a week a.

July hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGEX) settled at around $125 a bushel, up 1125 cents, or 6%, from a week a.

Euronext's September 2022 milling wheat futures traded at around €4150/tonne, up €19 or 8% from a week earli.

Argentine wheat spot offers were at $460 a ton, up $3 or 7% from a week a.

 

　　The.


dollar index closed at 1047 on Friday, up 8% from a week earlier and up 9% so far this ye.

 

　　Global wheat production in 2022/23 to fall for first time in four years

 

　　The USDA released the 2022/23 supply and demand forecast for the first time in the May supply and demand repo.

The global wheat production in 2022/23 is expected to be 775 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4 million to.

This will also be the first decline in production in four years, mainly because Ukraine's wheat production fell by a third year-on-year to only 25 million tons; Ukraine's wheat exports are expected to be 10 million tons, down 9 million tons or 44% year-on-ye.

 

　　Argentina's wheat production in 2022/23 is expected to be 20 million tons, down from 215 million tons in the previous year; Australia's wheat production is expected to be 30 million tons, down from 33 million tons in the previous year; China's wheat production is expected to be 135 million tons, a low Compared with the previous year's 1395 million tons; India's wheat production is forecast at 105 million tons, down from 1059 million tons in the previous ye.

 

　　However, wheat production in Canada and Russia is expected to ri.

Among them, Canada's wheat production is expected to be 33 million tons, up from 265 million tons in the previous ye.

Russia's wheat output is expected to be 80 million tons, compared with 716 million tons in the previous year; Russia's wheat export volume is expected to reach 39 million tons, becoming the world's number one wheat export.

 

　　Despite the decline in global production in 2022/23, wheat export demand will reach a record level, so the USDA expects global wheat ending stocks in 2022/23 to fall to 2602 million tons, a decrease of 12 million tons or 4% from the previous year, a record high The lowest level in six yea.

 

　.


winter wheat production set to hit multi-decade low

 

　　The.


Department of Agriculture projects 2022/3.


winter wheat production at 174 billion bushels, down 6 percent from 2021 and the lowest level in decad.

Hard red winter wheat production is forecast at 590 million bushels, down 21 percent from a year earlier due to drought in the central and southern plai.

The USDA said abandonment rates were high this year, especially in Texas and Oklaho.

In Kansas, the top wheat-producing state, wheat production is expected to be only three-quarters of what it will be in 202

 

　　The.


Department of Agriculture expects the average selling price of.


wheat in 2022/23 to hit a record $125 per bush, up $3 from 2021, due to tight world supplies and a domestic drought in the United Stat.

 

　　India's March and April weather record hottest in 122 years

 

　　India is the second largest wheat producer in the wor.

This follows five consecutive years of record wheat producti.

But the heatwave season came early in March this year, with unbearably hot weather in much of India throughout Apr.

While there appeared to be a respite in the first week of May, temperatures soon picked up aga.

Daytime temperatures remained above 45 degrees Celsius in many parts of Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh on May 1 In regions such as northwest, west and central India, March and April have been the hottest months since 1901 for two consecutive mont.

Raghu Murtugudde, a climate scientist at the University of Maryland, believes that prolonged La Niña may be responsible for the he.

The La Niña pattern over the eastern and central Pacific Ocean, which usually prevails during the Indian winter, has lasted longer than expected this year, leading to a heatwave that could last into June across much of Ind.

The wheat planting time in India is from October to January, and the harvest time is from March to M.

The main producing areas include Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab and Harya.

 

　　The face of India's export policy has changed from actively promoting exports to banning exports

 

　　A government document dated May 13 said India would ban wheat exports, just days after the Indian government issued a document saying it would export a record 10 million tonnes of wheat in 2022/23, saying Trade missions will be sent to countries including Morocco, Tunisia, Indonesia and the Philippines to explore ways to boost expor.

After the export ban was announced, senior Indian officials told a news conference that the export ban was not permanent and could be amend.

India's wheat production has not fallen sharply this year, but unregulated exports have led to higher local prices, officials sa.

Indian wheat prices have risen to record highs, reaching 25,000 rupees ($320) a tonne in some spot markets, well above the government's minimum support price of 20,150 rupe.

Rising fuel, labor, transportation and packaging costs have also boosted wheat prices in Ind.

It's not just about wheat, one official sa.

Rising food prices have raised concerns about inflation, which is why the government had to ban wheat expor.

In February, the Indian government forecast wheat production at 1132 million tonnes, the sixth consecutive record hi.

But in early May the government lowered production to 105 million tonn.

Soaring temperatures in mid-March meant production could be around 100 million tonnes or less, said a trader at a global trading firm in New Del.

Government wheat purchases have fallen by more than 50 perce.

Spot availability is much lower than last ye.

All of these point to a decline in crop yiel.

Food Corporation of India (FCI) has so far purchased just over 19 million tonnes of wheat from domestic farmers, compared with a record 434 million tonnes last ye.

India took advantage of rising global wheat prices in the wake of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict to export a record 7 million tonnes of wheat in the fiscal year ended March, up more than 250 percent year-on-ye.

India exported another record 4 million tonnes of wheat in April, having signed deals to export around 5 million tonnes in M.

 

　　Hot and dry weather in France, temperatures could hit record highs next week

 

　　In France, the EU's top grain exporter, this year has been hot and rainy, threatening crops including winter whe.

French wheat is in desperate need of rain before this summer's harvest to avoid damage to yields, according to FranceAgriMer, the French Agriculture Ministry's crop offi.

In its monthly report released on May 12, Strategic Grains lowered its forecast for EU soft wheat production in 2022/23 to 122 million tons, 500,000 tons lower than the previous month's forecast, and a decrease of 1% year-on-year, because the sown area Forecast do.

Dry weather in Europe, especially in France, also threatens wheat yield potenti.

 

　　France's largest agricultural federation, FNSEA, said grains were in a delicate period and that if the hot weather continued, yields could be lost by as much as 40 perce.

Rainfall fell by a third in the first half of the year, French weather agency Meteo-France said on Sund.

Temperatures reached 30C in parts of France this we.

The areas of France most affected by the reduced rainfall include the strip extending from the southeast to Brittany in the northwe.

FNSEA chief Christiane Lambert said no region was immu.

The land of some farmland is crack.

Spring crops such as sunflower seeds, sugar beets and corn will also be affected if water scarcity persis.

In fact, the January-March period was one of the 10 driest winters on record in some parts of Fran.

Of the country's 96 mainland provinces, 15 are restricted from water use to prioritize agricultural and power generation nee.

While France can usually rely on snowfall on its mountains, especially in the Alps, to replenish river levels, this year's snow has melted quick.

There is not much snow in the southern Al.

And even if rainfall returns, it won't make up for the crop loss.

Wheat, the main cereal crop in France, is the second most water-consuming crop after mai.

 

　　The French Meteorological Service said on May 13 that hot weather will continue to occur in France next week, and high temperatures will occur from May 16 to 22, even breaking historical recor.

The temperature in most areas is expected to reach 30 degrees Celsius, with central to southern Fran.

Temperatures could peak at 33 degre.

, the weather will be very hot in southern and eastern France during Sund.

High temperatures of 30-33 degrees Celsius are possible in the area between Toulouse and Proven.

This high temperature will continue for the week of May 23-2